Adobe面临竞争与管理风险，但其低估值（12倍市盈率）若能在增长持续的情况下提供潜在上行空间。
逐段跳播
这是Adobe，股票代码为ADBE。给Adobe的业务实力打分，考虑行业和竞争等因素。10分代表无敌，1分代表毫无希望。你们俩都给了7分，Matt。
It's Adobe, ticker symbol ADBE. Rate the strength of Adobe's business, including factors like industry and competition. 10 is invincible, a one is hopeless. Both of you have sevens, Matt.
是的，我的意思是，Adobe仍然拥有庞大的用户群。这是一个粘性很强的用户群。使用过Acrobat、Premiere工具等的人，他们仍然会继续使用。月活跃用户超过8.5亿，同比增长20%，这相当令人印象深刻。
Yeah, I mean, Adobe still has a an enormous user base. It's a sticky user base. People who have used Acrobat, you know, you know, have the Premiere tools and all that, they'll they'll still use it. Uh monthly active users surpassed 850 million. It grew 20% year-over-year, which is pretty impressive.
但是，他们的护城河现在正受到像Canva这样更便宜的基于AI的工具的考验。市面上有免费工具。这确实在考验Adobe的业务，所以这就是为什么我不能给它打超过7分。
But, their moat is really being tested right now with cheaper AI-based tools like Canva. There's, you know, free tools out there. It's really testing Adobe's business right now, so that's why I can't give it higher than a seven.
Photoshop、Acrobat、Creative Cloud在创意工作中仍然是绝对的核心。收入仍在以低两位数增长，但围绕Adobe股票存在价值与价值陷阱的争论是有原因的。
Photoshop, Acrobat, Creative Cloud still absolutely load-bearing when it comes to creative work. Revenue still growing low double digits, but there's a reason there's a value versus value trap debate around Adobe stock.
在AI出现之前就已经受到Canva和Figma等公司的攻击，现在随着AI图像工具的兴起，又一个挑战者出现在地平线上。这是一家强大的企业，但护城河目前正面临压力，这就是我给它打7分的原因。
Getting attacked even before AI from folks like Canva and Figma and now with the rise of AI image tools, just another challenger on the horizon. It's a business that is strong, but the moat is under pressure right now and that's why I give it a seven.
对于管理层，10分代表沃伦·巴菲特，1分代表霍默·辛普森。Nick给了7分，Matt，你给了5分。是的，5分似乎很自然，因为我们不知道他们的管理层会是谁。所以我取了中间值。他们的CEO和CFO都要离职。
CEO的过渡稍微有序一些，也是预期的。CFO的离职尤其令人惊讶。他离开去了Marvel Technology。在继任者被任命并真正证明自己之前，这里存在真正的领导层连续性风险。
这就是为什么我取了中间值。我们不知道明年这个时候领导人会是谁。
For management, a 10 is Warren Buffett, a one is Homer Simpson. Nick said a seven, Matt, you're at a five. Yeah, a five seemed like a natural fit because we don't know who their management's going to be. Um you know, you so I went right in the middle. Uh both their CEO and CFO are leaving. Uh the CEO was a little bit more of an orderly and and expected transition. The CFO departure was especially surprising. He left to go to Marvel Marvel Technology. Um until a successor is named for both positions and really proves themselves, there's there's real kind of leadership continuity risk here. And that's why I just kind of landed in the middle. We don't know who the leaders are going to be at this time next year.
他们是优秀的长期经营者，在现金使用上一直很明智。刚刚授权了250亿美元的股票回购。但是，正如你所说，Shantanu Narayen在担任CEO 18年后即将卸任。CFO也要离开。
所以，在我们之前讨论的颠覆之际，我们面临过渡风险。我给了7分。你甚至可以说服我打更低的分。
These are good long-term operators that have been smart with cash. Just authorized a $25 billion buyback. Buyback, but as you say Shantanu Narayen is stepping down as CEO after 18 years. CFO is leaving. So, we've got transition risk right as they are facing the disruptions that we talked about earlier. I went with a seven. You could convince me to go even lower than that.
对于财务状况，10分代表堡垒，1分代表糟糕。Nick给了8分，Matt，你给了7分。
For financials, a 10 is a fortress. A one is yikes. Nick said an eight. Matt, you're at a seven.
是的，我的意思是，高盈利能力。他们有很好的现金流。Nick提到的回购，并不是机会主义的。它们发生在股价昂贵的时候。所以，我会反驳说他们的资本配置并非无懈可击。当你能获得好的价值时，回购是好的。
我不能真正说他们做到了。他们有稳健的资产负债表，但无论如何都不是堡垒。所以我给了7分。
Yeah, I mean highly profitable. They have great cash flow. The buybacks Nick mentioned you know, they weren't opportunistic. They happened when the stock was expensive. So, I would kind of push back and say their capital allocation hasn't been flawless. You know, buybacks are nice when you're getting a good value. I can't really argue they did. They have they have a solid balance sheet, but it's not a fortress by any definition. So, I went with a seven.
我给了8分。营业利润率约为35%，收入约为250亿美元，股本回报率为60%，自由现金流非常强劲。债务适中，现金生成良好。财务状况不是Adobe的问题。问题是这些财务状况随时间推移的方向。我给了8分。
I went with eight. Operating margins around 35% roughly $25 billion in revenue, 60% returns on equity, and really strong free cash flow. Modest debt with with good cash generation. Financials are not the problem with Adobe. It is the direction of travel of those financials over time. I rated it an eight.
嗨，Nick。让我们转向估值。未来5年Adobe股票表现如何？有多安全？10分代表确定，1分代表彩票。所以，我给了5%到10%的回报，安全评分为4。这就是真正棘手的地方，对吧？
该股交易价格约为过去12个月收益的12倍，前瞻收益的8倍，是历史上最便宜的。市场告诉你它最好的日子已经过去了。我不一定认为Adobe会消失，但我不认为你可以假设从这里开始倍数扩张，考虑到地平线上的真正挑战以及围绕AI下一步发展的真正问题。
Hi Nick. Let's move on to valuation. How well will Adobe stock do over the next 5 years? How safe is it? 10 is a sure thing. One is a lottery ticket. So, I went 5 to 10% with a safety score of four. And this is really where it gets tough, right? The stock is trading about 12 times trailing earnings, eight times forward as cheap as it has ever been. The market is telling you its best days are behind it. I don't necessarily believe that Adobe goes away, but I don't think you can go out and and assume multiple expansion from here, giving the real challenges on the horizon and you know, real questions around what comes next for AI.
而且我确实认为，相对于我们之前谈到的像Viva这样的受监管行业中的公司，退出其软件有实际成本。我认为退出Adobe提供的这类创意工具相对更容易，可能比其他软件更容易。所以，我认为Adobe相对面临更大的风险。
And I do think, you know, relative to something like Viva that we talked about earlier in a regulated industry where there's real cost to pulling out its software. I think it's relatively easier to pull out the types of creative tools that Adobe offers than than maybe other other software. So, I think Adobe is relatively more at risk.
我给了5%到10%，因为我认为他们未来5年可能将收益增长5%到10%，如果没有倍数扩张，这就是你最终会得到的回报，但如果AI继续增强能力并颠覆Adobe的价值主张，可能还会有更多下行空间。
Went 5 to 10% cuz I think they can probably grow their earnings 5 to 10% over the next 5 years and with no uh multiple expansion, that's the type of return you would end up with and uh but there could be more downside to come if AI continues to gain capability and disrupt Adobe's value proposition.
是的，我觉得我是这里更乐观的一个。我说了10%到15%的回报，安全评分为5，但这是基于已经相当低迷的水平上的10%到15%的增长率。Nick提到公司目前的市盈率是12。历史水平，放在背景中看，接近40。
所以，它仍在以两位数增长收入，即使它最好的日子已经过去，就像市场似乎认为的那样，如果它能在AI世界中适度竞争，在这个水平上可能是个便宜货，但这里有一些严重的风险因素。
Yeah, I feel I'm the more optimistic one here. I said 10 to 15% with a safety score of five, but that's a 10 to 15% growth rate off of a pretty already beaten down level. Um Nick mentioned that the the company's PE right now is 12. Uh the historical level, to put that in context, is closer to 40. Um so, it's still growing revenue in the double digits and even if its best days are behind it, like the market seems to think so, if it can modestly compete uh in an AI world, uh it could be a steal at this level, but there are some serious risk factors here.
是的，如果Adobe能哪怕稍微增长一点，就可能是个便宜货。问题是它是否不会增长。他们给Adobe的总评分为6.3分（满分10分）。Nick认为没有热门股，喜欢12倍市盈率，而Matt希望Canva上市。
Yeah, it matters if Adobe can grow even just a little, could be a steal. Question is whether whether it won't. They've given Adobe a overall score of 6.3 out of 10. Uh Nick sees no top hits and likes it at a 12X earnings, while Matt wishes Canva was public.
这个频道对 $ADBE 的历次判断
The Motley Fool 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。