ADBE因AI竞争和技术形态面临下行风险，财报后可能下跌。
逐段跳播
许多此类公司的股票仍处于亏损状态，例如苹果、甲骨文、Adobe 等。所以，Adobe 几乎处于该列表的底部，在我看来，这是风险之一，尤其是并非直接因为生成式 AI。
The shares of many such companies are still in losses, such as Apple, Oracle, Adobe, etc. So, Adobe is almost at the bottom of this list, and to me that's one of the risks, especially not directly because of generative AI.
如果你需要生成式 AI 来创作某些内容，那么你可能本来就不是 Photoshop 的重度用户。关键在于，AI 使其他公司能够创造出可能更便宜或对客户更友好的竞争性产品。所以，我们现在也可以看到它在盘前略有下跌。
If you need generative AI to create something, you probably weren't already a big Photoshop user. The point is, AI is enabling other companies to create competitive products that may be cheaper or more user-friendly for customers. So, we can also see now that it has fallen a bit in the pre-market.
我们现在处于接近 275 的位置。因此，如果出现下行走势，应留意 265 和 250 等区域，这些是近期相对较低的水平。
We are now at a position close to 275. Therefore, in case of a downside move, areas like 265 and 250 should be kept in mind, which are relatively low levels in recent times.
这本质上是一个上升楔形形态，两条趋势线相互靠拢并指向上方，这通常被视为看跌或看跌信号。当然，它也可能朝任一方向运行，如果我们像最近那样开始向上突破并继续测试这些上限。
It is essentially a rising wedge pattern, where two trend lines are merging into each other, pointing upwards, which is often considered a bearish or bearish signal. Of course, it could go either way, if we start to break out to the upside like we have recently and continue to test these upper limits.
我们应该关注的点位是跳空下跌或下跌后出现的高点，即 270 或 280、284，以及跳空起始的 291。
The points we should keep an eye on are the highs we saw after the gap down or decline at 270 or 280, 284, and also 291, where the gap started.
这里还有其他一些相对高点，大约在 299 和 306。我们跟踪的移动平均线显示这里存在一个汇聚点。我们最短和最长移动平均线在 284 或 285 附近重合。
There are some other relatively high points here, around 299 and 306. The moving averages we follow show that there is a confluence here. Our shortest and longest moving averages coincide around 284 or 285.
我们的 5 日深蓝色和 251 日橙色移动平均线分别代表我们的 1 周和 1 年指数移动平均线。所以，截至昨日收盘，我们处于该支撑位，但正如我所说，现在我们将接近我们的 21 日 EMA 或月度 EMA，此处以青色显示，大约在 273。
Our 5-day dark blue and 251-day orange moving averages indicate our 1-week and 1-year exponential moving averages. So, we're at that support level as of yesterday's close, but as I said, now we'll be near our 21-day EMA or monthly EMA, which is shown here in teal around 273.
RSI 显示价格或动量难以进入超买区域。70 上方没有太多强劲压力。财报可能成为改变这一状况的催化剂。最后，我们的成交量分布研究显示，在 290 至 305 之间存在一些交易活动，而我们的控制点或最大交易区域位于 237 至 260 之间。控制点接近 246。
The RSI is indicating that price or momentum is struggling to enter the overbought area. There is not much strong pressure above 70. The earnings report could be a catalyst for changing this situation. Finally, our volume profile study shows that there was some trading activity between 290 and 305, and our point of control or most trading area is between 237 and 260. The point of control is near 246.
如果您的观点在财报公布前偏空，我们可以交易9月18日到期的合约，这是我们下一个月度合约，距今14天，价格约为9.8%上下。
If your outlook is bearish ahead of the earnings report, we can trade the September 18 term, which is our next monthly term, 14 days away, at about 9.8% plus or minus.
例如，该交易是9月18日265-255看跌垂直价差，支付250美元权利金。因此，看空观点下，最大损失是我们支付的250美元权利金。
For example, the trade is September 18th 265-255 Put Vertical, 250 Debit Paid. So, a bearish view, where the maximum loss is 250 debits given to us.
如果我们能达到255的行权价，最大利润将是750美元。也就是说，这里的风险回报比大约为1比3。
If we can reach the 255 strike price, the maximum profit will be 750. That is, the risk to reward ratio here is roughly one to three.
我们的盈亏平衡点是262.50，相对于我们预期的约10%的波动，这是4.5%的下行空间。这在可能性范围之内，尤其是如果财报结果令人失望的话。因此，财报公布后价格很可能会下跌。
Our break-even is 262.50, which is 4.5% downside compared to our expected movement of about 10%. This falls within the realm of possibility, especially if earnings results are disappointing. Therefore, the price is likely to fall after the earnings report.
他说在等什么
这个频道对 $ADBE 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。