Adobe 因市场对其 AI 颠覆风险的担忧而面临长期估值压制，尽管基本面稳健，上行空间仍受限。
逐段跳播
接下来第二个话题，我们要谈的是 Oracle 和 Adobe。它们的财报已经公布了。我想分享一下我的看法和观点，说说我喜不喜欢这两只股票，诸如此类的事情。
Second subject up here we're going to talk about Oracle and Adobe. Their earnings have come out. I want to share my opinion and perspectives on if I like those stocks, if I don't, those sorts of things.
接下来，Adobe。听着。Adobe 是一家你通常可以指望它交出稳健数字的公司，而本季度他们正是这么做的。Adobe 的利润表评级为 B。营收增长了 13%，这不错，是个令人印象深刻的数字。
Next up here, Adobe. Listen. Adobe's a company you can generally count on putting up solid numbers, and this is exactly what they did this quarter. B grade income statement here from Adobe. Revenue's up 13% it's good, you know, impressive number there.
不过问题在于，公司总营收成本同比增长了 19%。这可不妙。当你的营收增长 13% 时，你不想看到这项增长 19%。好吗？所以，毛利润增长了 12%。数字不错，但它的增速低于营收，对吧？
It The issue though is total cost of revenue was up 19% for the company year over year. That's no bueno. You don't want to see that up 19% when your revenue's up 13%. Okay? So, gross profit grew 12%. Good number, but it grew less than revenue, right?
公司研发费用同比增长了 18%，所以它的增速远快于毛利润和营收的增速，对吧？销售和营销增长了 11%，这个他们控制住了，这不错。一般及行政费用增长了 20%，所以这个数字比毛利润的增速高得多，明显高出 800 个基点，比营收增速高出 700 个基点，对吧？
R&D was up 18% for the company year over year, so that grew much faster than gross profit grew and revenue grew, right? Sales and marketing up 11%, so they kept that in check, that's good. G&A that was up 20%, so that's a much much larger number than obviously 800 basis points stronger than gross profit was up, and uh 700 basis points more than than revenue was up, right?
所以，公司总运营费用同比增长了 15%，在你的毛利润只增长 12% 的情况下这并不理想，所以运营利润最终只增长了 8%，净利润最终只增长了 3%，他们在大量回购股票，所以这帮助了摊薄每股收益，公司摊薄每股收益同比增长了 11%。
So, total operating expenses up 15% for the company year over year, not ideal when your gross profit's up 12%, so operating income only ended up being up 8%, net income only ended up being up 3%, they're buying tons of shares back, so that helped diluted EPS that was up 11% for the company on a year-over-year basis.
所以，Adobe 的情况是——这曾是我持有的一只股票，我决定卖出，而且很高兴我这么做了。它就是一只被困在低估值上的股票。这就是 Adobe 的情况。
So, the deal with Adobe here is and you know, this was a stock I owned, I decided to sell out of it, and very happy I did. It's just a stock that is stuck at low valuations. That's the deal with Adobe.
而且，这就是该股今天下跌的原因。它在盘后下跌了。Adobe 的问题就在于，他们很可能会继续交出稳健的财报，对吧？但稳健的财报不足以让这只股票真正朝一个重大方向动起来，也不足以让这家公司的估值获得重估。
And I I you know, and that's why the stock was down today. It was down after hours. You know, the issue with Adobe is it's just they're going to likely come in and keep putting up solid reports, right? But, solid reports is not enough to get the stock really moving in a major direction and get a re-rating in regards to valuation of this company.
Adobe 曾经是一家可以轻松获得 20 多倍远期市盈率、甚至 30 多倍远期市盈率的公司，因为它被视为一种安全的商业模式，长期来看很难被颠覆。它失去了这一点。它不再被那样看待了。
而且我看不到它能重新获得这一点，这就是我一段时间前就放弃这只股票的原因，因为我看着它就想，他们不可能摆脱这种局面——所有人都说“哦，他们不会被颠覆”。
Adobe used to be a company that could easily command high 20s forward P, maybe even in the 30s forward P, because it was seen as a safe business model that was hard to disrupt for the long term. It's no It lost that. It's no longer viewed as that. And I don't see it getting that back, which is why I moved on from the stock a while back, cuz I'm just looking at it and I'm like there's no way they get out of this situation where everybody's like, "Oh, they're not going to be disrupted."
归根结底，越来越多的人使用 Gemini 来生成图像、做编辑之类的事情，还有市面上其他各种不同的产品，不管是 ChatGPT，还是——我甚至不知道你能不能通过 ChatGPT 做这个，对吧？
Nano Banana，你可以通过它来做。或者你可以通过——我的意思是，我相信你可以通过——我的意思是，有太多不同的服务可以让你做这些事情，对吧？所以，归根结底，人们总是会说“颠覆它。
颠覆它。颠覆它。”他们会说“是啊，目前还没有在数字上体现太多，但等着瞧。2 年后、3 年后、4 年后，它就会——”而且这种声音会不断被抛出来，不断被抛出来。这会让 Adobe 能够获得的估值维持在一个低得多的位置，这就使得你很难在这只股票上赚到真正的大钱，对吧？
At the end of the day, more and more people that use, you know, Gemini to create images and do editing and things like that, and these other different products that are there out there, whether it be ChatGPT, or whether you all I don't even know if you can do that through ChatGPT, right? Um Nano Banana, you can do it through that. Uh or you can do it through I mean, I'm sure you could do it through I mean, there's so many different services you can do this stuff through, right? And so, at the end of the day, people are going to always be like, "Disrupt it. Disrupt it. Disrupt it." And they're like, "Yeah, it's not showing up in the numbers too much yet, but just wait. 2 years from now, 3 years from now, 4 years from now, it's going to" And it's going to constantly be fed out there, constantly be fed out there. And that's going to keep the valuation that Adobe's able to command in a much lower place, which makes it, you know, hard to to get any real big money made on this stock, right?
如果你投资个股，你是想赚大钱的。在 Adobe 上要赚大钱会非常困难，除非他们的收入以极快的速度增长，让人们觉得“天哪，这简直是游戏规则的改变者”。或者除非他们能够彻底消除被颠覆的疑虑，但我就是看不到他们能够消除这一点并说“我们没有被颠覆，对吧？”
他们可以说一百万遍，但归根结底，人们会相信他们想相信的，不管那是真是假，那是他们的看法。而他们的看法就是这里存在长期颠覆。这意味着它必须获得更低的远期市盈率。所以，Adobe 能够获得的远期市盈率，长期来看很可能会在 9 到 15 倍、9 到 14 倍的区间。
Which if you're investing in individual stock, you want to make a lot of money. It's going to be very hard to make a lot of money in Adobe, unless they grow their revenues at such a fast clip that people are like, "Oh my gosh, like it's a game changer." Or if they could ever dispel the disruption, but I just don't see them ever for able to dispel that and be like, "We're not being disrupted, right?" They can say it a million times, but at the end of day, people are going to be believe what they want to believe, whether it's true or not, it's their perspective. And their perspective is long-term disruption here. Which means has to command lower forward P. So, a forward P Adobe is going to command is likely going to be in the 9 to 15 range, 9 to 14 range long-term.
所以，是的，在一只将以那种估值交易的股票上很难赚到大钱，对吧？所以，这就是 Adobe 的问题所在。好公司，困在糟糕的估值上。而且，事情就是这样，你知道，你对此无能为力。
And so, yeah, it's hard to make a lot of money in a stock like that that is going to trade at those sorts of valuations, right? And so, that's just the issue with Adobe. Good company, stuck at bad valuations. And uh it's just is what it is, you know, nothing nothing you can do about it.
这个频道对 $ADBE 的历次判断
Financial Education 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。