基于风险回报比，ADBE 是当前最值得关注的机会之一；在营收与自由现金流持续保持两位数增长的情况下，市场对 AI 冲击的悲观情绪似乎过度。
逐段跳播
那么，让我给你们看一个例子，因为我在视频开头就说过会带你们看它。各位，Adobe 是一家我亲眼看着它从 700 的高点跌到 200 的公司。在 450 以下它开始让我感兴趣。我开始买了一些股票。
So, let me show you one, because I told you at the start of the video that I'd bring you to it. Guys, Adobe is a company that I've seen fall from a high of 700 down to 200. It got interesting to me under 450. I started buying some shares.
随着时间推移，人们说：“你不明白。AI 会摧毁这家公司。”而与此同时，Chat GPT 和 Claude 都在与 Adobe 合作，把它们的 AI 用到自己的系统里。
As time went on, people were saying, "You don't get it. AI is going to destroy this company." Meanwhile, Chat GPT and Claude were both partnering with Adobe to use their AI into their systems.
我还看了自 AI 开始成为一件大事以来自由现金流的图表，我心想：“等等，既然这家公司正在走向死亡，为什么它的营收和自由现金流每年还在以两位数的速度增长？”
I also looked at the chart on the free cash flow since AI started become a big thing and I'm like, "Wait, how is their revenue and free cash flow still growing double digits every year, even though the company is dying?"
现在，显然，未来是未知的。我们是人，我们会犯错。但是天哪，我心想，这不正是一个绝佳的例子，说明市场因为坐在那里说“我得去买芯片，而不是去买那些会被这些公司淘汰的软件”而错过了这个机会吗？
Now, obviously, the future is unknown. And we're humans and we make mistakes. But boy, I thought to myself, is this a prime example of the market missing this because they're sitting there saying, "I need to go buy the chips and not the software that's going to get eliminated by these companies."
在我看来，Adobe 是一家非常好的软件企业，为许多非常优秀的专业人士完成一项非常出色的任务。而显然，Chat GPT 和 Claude 在软件里做视频和图片这件事上还处于非常早期的阶段。
就在昨天，我还在用它们处理我图片方面的一些事情，用起来非常非常笨拙。如果我把那件事交给一位 Adobe 专家，大概会快得多，但大概也会更贵。
To me, Adobe is a very good software business that does a very great task for a lot of very good professionals. And obviously, Chat GPT and Claude are very early on in their process of doing videos and pictures in their software. Just yesterday, I was using them for some of things on on on my image side and it was very, very cumbersome. If I'd just given that to somebody who's an Adobe expert, it probably would've done a lot faster, but probably more expensive.
但我仍然看着这家以 10 倍自由现金流出售的公司。我坐在那里说：“市场定价所反映的未来，是的，可能没有他们以为的那么好，但市场定价的方式是不是把它定得比实际将要发生的糟糕得多？”这就是问题所在。
But I still look at this company that's selling for 10 times free cash flow. And I sit there and say, "Is the market pricing a future that, yes, may not be as good as they thought, but they're pricing it like it's way worse than it's actually going to be?" That's the question.
现在，我不知道自己在 Adobe 上会不会判断正确。我完全没头绪。但我确实知道的是，如果我能找到 30 或 40 家像 Adobe 这样定价、有着那种市场认知的公司，我很可能会做得非常好。
其中少数几家可能会被淘汰。其中少数几家可能会表现得比人们预期的好得多得多得多，还有少数几家可能会做到人们预期的那样。这就是我所需要的。我们在这里不是要挑一只股票然后说“就是它了”。
我们在这里是要审视一套流程，并把它应用到许多股票上。而在 Adobe 身上，我看到这套流程就在这里奏效。我认为它是当下市场上最好的机会之一。我这么说，指的是风险与回报的对比。
Now, I don't know if I'm going to be right on Adobe or not. I have no clue. But what I do know is, if I can find 30 or 40 companies that are priced like Adobe with that kind of perception, I'm probably going to do very well. A few of them will probably get eliminated. A few of them will probably do far, far, far better than people expected, and a few of them will probably do what people expected. That's all I need. We're not here to pick one stock and say, "This is it." We're here to look at a process and apply it to many stocks. And with Adobe, I see that working right here. I think it is one of the best opportunities in the market right now. When I say that, I mean the risk versus the reward.
这个频道对 $ADBE 的历次判断
Everything Money 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。