Adobe 是首选买入标的；若 AI 风险减弱，其稳健的业绩表现与低估值将支撑上行空间。
逐段跳播
Adobe 在最近一个已完成的季度中报告营收增长 13%，并上调了全年营收和利润两端的预期。这正是投资者希望从 Adobe 身上看到的：持续的业绩表现、避免出现混乱，并避开人工智能日益增强的能力可能造成的灾难。
Adobe reported revenue growth of 13% in its most recently completed quarter and raised expectations for the full year on the top and bottom line. This is exactly what investors want to see from Adobe, just continued performance and disruption avoidance and avoiding the disaster that could be created by the rising effectiveness of artificial intelligence.
但这是否仍让 Adobe 股票成为一个买入机会？我一直把 Adobe 评为今年你可以买入的最佳股票之一。我的投资组合中持有 Adobe 股票，而它一直是该名单中表现最差的股票之一。
But does this still make Adobe stock a buying opportunity? I've been ranking Adobe as one of the best stocks you can buy this year. I've owned Adobe stock in my portfolio and it's been one of the worst performing stocks in that list.
那么，让我们来看看它是否仍应留在那个名单上，还是应该被下调评级。Adobe 报告称其月活跃用户数突破 10 亿这一里程碑。
So, let's take a look if it still belongs on that list or if it should observe a downgrade. Adobe reported reaching a landmark of more than 1 billion monthly active users.
而这是我认为 Adobe 有机会抵御人工智能威胁的原因之一。它拥有庞大的用户基础，也拥有庞大的忠实用户基础，即那些 Adobe 的高级用户。
And this is one of the reasons why I've suggested Adobe stands a chance at withstanding the threat from artificial intelligence. It's got a large base of users and it's got a large base of committed users, those that are power users of Adobe.
而即便切换到成本更低的另一项服务，也会很困难且耗时。
And switching to a different service even if it's lower cost would be difficult and time consuming.
而且许多企业在已有可用方案、其员工和整个生态系统都建立在现有技术之上时，不愿切换到未经证实的新技术。管理层表示，我们上调了全年营收和每股收益指引。
And a lot of enterprises are hesitant to switch to an unproven new technology when they have something in place that already works and their employees and their whole ecosystem is based on a current technology.
The management said we are raising their fullear revenue and earnings per share guidance.
而这正是你希望从 Adobe 身上看到的。你不需要看到 Adobe 交出轰动性的数据，股价就能上涨并带来丰厚的股东回报。
And this is exactly what you want to see from Adobe. You don't need to see blockbuster figures from Adobe for the stock price to increase and deliver great shareholder returns.
你只需要看到公司守住阵地、自我防御、守住当前的增长率、守住当前的每股收益增长，并抵御人工智能的威胁，直到投资者确信并安心地认为 Adobe 的业务不会被人工智能取代，因为股价中已经计入了一个巨大的风险因素。
You just need to see the company hold the line, defend itself, defend its current growth rate, defend its current earnings per share growth, and withstand the threat from artificial intelligence until investors are convinced and comfortable that Adobe's business won't be taken over by artificial intelligence because the price of the stock is incorporating a huge risk factor.
而如果 Adobe 继续交出稳定而扎实的业绩，这一风险因素就会减弱，估值就可能重新回到其正常的市场倍数水平。Adobe 报告第三季度营收为 67.6 亿美元。
And if Adobe continues to deliver steady and solid results, that risk factor diminishes and the valuation could rerate back to its normal levels of market multiple. Adobe reported 6.76 billion in third quarter revenue.
这是 13% 的同比增长。对于一家远期市盈率约为 10 倍的企业来说，这是极佳的增长。同样，利润率依然出色。
That's 13% year-over-year growth. This is excellent growth for a business that's trading at a forward price to earnings multiple of around 10. Similarly, the profit margins remain excellent.
第三季度营业收入为23.5亿美元。用这个数字除以67.6亿美元的营收，可以看到其营业利润率约为33%。同样，经营活动现金流合计25.2亿美元，经营活动现金流与销售额之比同样高于33%。
Third quarter operating income came in at 2.35 billion. And if you divide that with the revenue of 6.76 billion, you can see their operating profit margin is around 33%. Similarly, cash flow from operations total 2.52 billion and again above 33% CFO to sales ratio.
这些数据非常出色，公司只需继续保持在这一水平即可。他们不需要加快营收增长。
These are excellent figures and the company just needs to continue at these levels. They don't need to accelerate revenue growth.
该业务的估值并不依赖于超预期的表现。该业务的估值所反映的，是一个可能放缓的业务，营收增长可能减速，利润率可能收缩。
The business is not trading at a valuation that depends on super premium performance. The business is trading at a valuation that's incorporating a business that's likely to slow down, a likely decelerating revenue growth, contracting margins.
这就是估值所反映的预期。因此，每一个没有出现这种情况的季度，都是朝着将这家公司重新估值、回归到具备这些特征的业务的正常估值水平又迈进了一个季度。
That's what the valuation is pricing in. So every quarter that doesn't happen is another quarter in the direction of rerating this business back to normal valuations for a business with these characteristics.
剩余履约义务合计221.6亿美元，全年预测被上调至总营收266亿美元。
Remaining performance obligations total $22.16 billion and the forecast for the full year was increased to $26.6 billion in total revenue.
每股收益被上调，期末年度经常性收入总额为10.2%，预期同比增长2%。这依然是稳健的两位数增长。只要接近这一水平，期末年度经常性收入总额增长8%、9%、10%、11%、12%，对Adobe股票的投资者来说都会很不错。
Earnings per share were increased and total ending annual recurring revenue at 10.2%. 2% expected year-over-year. Again, this is solid double digits. Anywhere near this level, 8 9 10 11 12% would be great for Adobe stock investors on total ending ARR growth.
在深入研究其利润表时，我很高兴看到Adobe增加了研发支出，增加了销售和营销投入。我提到过，他们拥有非常强劲的利润率，而鉴于他们面临的威胁加大，我希望公司增加投资以进行自我防御。
In digging deeper into their income statement, I was happy to see Adobe increasing research and development spending, increasing sales and marketing investment. I've mentioned that they've got very strong profit margins and given the increased threat that they're facing, I would want the company to increase investment to defend itself.
研发是我希望看到增加投资的一个类别。不仅仅是为了研发本身，而是为了开发融入人工智能的技术，以减少现有客户转向其他服务的需求。
And research and development is one category I want to see increased investment. Not just for research and development's sake, but for developing technologies incorporating artificial intelligence in order to reduce the need for existing customers to switch to other services.
无论原因是什么，客户都会想转向使用人工智能的东西。我希望Adobe研发技术，将其融入自身的服务中。这样，他们就能留住客户，而客户本来就已经想留下来，对吧？
Whatever the reason is, customers would want to switch to something utilizing AI. I want Adobe to research and development technologies to incorporate that into their own services.
That way, they can keep their customers and customers are already wanting to stay, right?
因为你只考虑你自己、你自己的家庭开支、你自己的生意开支、你自己的供应商关系。假设你身处 Apple 的生态系统，或者你身处 Android 生态系统。
Because you just think about yourself and your own household expense, your own business expense, your own vendor relationships. Let's say you're with Apple's ecosystem or you're with Android ecosystem.
无论哪种情况，想象一下切换到另一个生态系统，对吧？想想这需要你花多少时间，再想象一下，如果你有一个家庭或一家企业，要把你的整个企业或整个家庭切换到一家新的供应商。那得花上好几个小时，对吧？
Either way, imagine switching to the other ecosystem, right? Think about all the time it would take you to and imagine if you have a family or a business to switch your entire business or your entire household to a new uh provider. That would take hours, right?
所以，你更愿意留在现有的东西上，对吧？而要让你切换，他们必须提供一个非常有吸引力的客户价值主张。所以，现有股东、你这家业务的现有持有者拥有优势，他们有动力把你留作客户，而且他们留住你所需付出的努力，比竞争对手把你抢走所需付出的努力要少。
So, you'd prefer to stay with what you have, right? And in order to make you switch, they have to provide a very compelling customer value proposition. So, the existing shareholder, the existing holder of your business has an advantage and they have a incentive to keep you as a customer and they don't have to do as much to keep you as a customer as a rival has to do to take you as a customer.
所以，我希望 Adobe 开发并整合这些技术，把这些客户留住，做足够多的事情让他们不流失。在截至 8 月 28 日的 3 个月里，Adobe 来自运营的现金流增长了 10% 以上，达到 25 亿美元，高于 21.98 亿美元。
So, I want Adobe to develop and incorporate these technologies to keep these customers in place to do enough to keep them from switching. In the 3 months that ended August 28, Adobe's cash flow from operations increased by more than 10% up to $2.5 billion, up from 2.198 billion.
非常健康的增长。再次强调，对于一家以这些倍数交易的业务来说，这些都是极好的增长率。Adobe 还在增加对其普通股的回购，因为该股看起来被低估了。
Very healthy growth. Again, these are excellent growth rates for a business trading at these multiples. Adobe is also increasing repurchases of its common stock because the stock looks undervalued.
我能看出来。你能看出来。管理团队也能看出来。所以，他们正在用一部分现金回购股票。
I can see it. You can see it. The management team can see it. So, they're using some of their cash to buy back stock.
当我说一部分时，我应该说很大一部分。他们本季度来自运营的现金流为 25 亿美元，并用 22 亿美元回购股票。所以，他们本季度产生的现金流几乎全部用于回购股票。
And when I say some, I should say a lot. They generated $2.5 billion in cash flow from operations in the quarter, and they use $2.2 billion to buy back stock. So nearly all of the cash flow that they generated in the quarter they used to buy back stock.
这就是我认为他们眼中这家业务以其当前市场倍数交易被低估的程度。说到其当前市场倍数，Adobe 的远期市盈率仅为九倍。
That's how undervalued I think they see this business trading for at its current market multiple. Speaking of its current market multiple, Adobe is trading at a forward PE of just nine.
只有九。这大约是标普500指数成分股平均估值的三分之一。而Adobe比标普500指数中的平均股票更好。当你从营收增长来衡量，从营业利润率来衡量，从投入资本回报率来衡量，从资产负债表实力来衡量，从几乎所有对投资者重要的财务指标来衡量，唯一的问题就是来自人工智能的压制因素。
Just nine. This is roughly one-third the valuation of the average stock in the S&P 500 index. And Adobe is better than the average stock in the S&P 500 index. When you measure on revenue growth, when you measure on operating profit margin, when you measure on return on invested capital, when you measure on balance sheet strength, when you measure on nearly every financial metric that's important to investors, the one thing is the overhang from artificial intelligence.
那个重大风险，即Adobe可能会因为某家融入人工智能的公司而失去其业务的很大一部分，无论是OpenAI、Anthropic，还是另一家融入人工智能、以更低价格提供与Adobe类似服务的公司。
that big risk that Adobe could lose a meaningful part of its business from some company that's incorporating artificial intelligence whether it be open AI anthropic or whether it be a different company that's incorporating AI to offer similar services that Adobe is offering at a lower price point.
这就是该股以如此便宜的估值交易的原因。因此，Adobe每守住一个季度、并交出又一个像它刚刚交出的那样出色的季度业绩——13%的营收增长，营业利润和现金流增长甚至更好——就更有理由让该公司的远期市盈率重新回到它历史上交易的 levels，回到这项业务历史上以20倍以上远期市盈率交易的水平。
That's why the stock is trading at such a cheap valuation. And so every quarter that Adobe defends itself and delivers another quarter of excellent performance like the one that they just delivered 13% revenue growth even better operating income and cash flow growth than the more justification for the company's forward PE ratio to rerate back to levels where it was historically trading for where this business historically traded at forward PE multiples above 20.
所以现在它是9。所以它不到其历史平均水平的一半，接近你能买入Adobe股票的最便宜水平。
So right now it's at 9. So it's less than half of its historical average and near the cheapest you've been able to buy Adobe stock.
同样，如果我看看我为Adobe创建的贴现现金流估值模型，我计算出该业务的公允价值为347。当前市场价格是249，我计算出Adobe股票有39%的上涨空间。
Similarly, if I look at the discounted cash flow valuation model I created for Adobe, I calculated a fair value of the business at 347. The current market price is 249 and I calculated an upside of 39% for Adobe stock.
所以对我这个Adobe股东来说，这是一个完美的季度。这正是我想看到的。只是又一个稳健的季度，维持了现有的营收增长。
So for me as an Adobe shareholder, this was a perfect quarter. This was exactly what I wanted to see. Just another solid quarter forward of maintaining existing revenue growth.
事实上，他们略微提高了营收增长。利润率、经营现金流保持健康。超过20亿美元的大规模回购，他们用于回购股票的资金几乎占现金流的100%。
In fact, they increased revenue growth slightly. Profit margins, cash flow from operations remained healthy. A huge buyback of over $2 billion, nearly 100% of cash flow they used to buy back stock.
他们增加了研发支出。我看到了所有我想看到的东西。
They increased research and development spending. I saw all the things that I wanted to see.
当然，他们最近任命了一位新的首席执行官。这还没过多久。我接下来想看到的，是首席执行官拿出一份更长期的计划，说明他们打算如何抵御人工智能。
Of course, they recently appointed a new CEO. Uh it hasn't been too long. What I want to see next is a longer term plan from the CEO on how they plan to defend itself against artificial intelligence.
我并不指望在未来一两周内看到这份计划，但到下一次季度更新时，我希望至少能看到首席执行官拿出一份针对近期的计划，对吧？
I don't expect to see that plan in the next week or two, but by the next quarterly update, I would like to see a plan from the CEO at least for the near term, right?
也许不是一份五年计划，但至少针对近期，也就是未来 3 到 12 个月，抵御人工智能的计划是什么？
Maybe not a 5-year plan, but at least for the near-term, the next 3 to 12 months, what's the plan for defending against artificial intelligence?
就目前而言，我非常喜欢我从这家公司看到的东西。我将重申我对 Adobe 股票的评级，认为它是你现在能买到的最好的股票之一。
For now, I really liked what I saw from the company. I will be reiterating my rating on Adobe stock as one of the best stocks you can buy right now.
观察点
这个频道对 $ADBE 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。