ADC凭借更优的增长率、稳健的股息以及相对历史均值偏低的估值，具备具吸引力的长期价值。
逐段跳播
AgriRealty Corporation（ADC）被视为Realty Inc.的小弟，基本上就是它的缩小版。但两者之间有一个根本性的区别。这家房地产投资信托基金的增长速度更快，因此能够以更快的速度提高股息派发。
AgriRealty Corporation (ADC) is known as the younger sibling of Realty Inc., essentially a smaller version of it. However, there is one fundamental difference. This real estate investment trust is growing at a faster rate, allowing it to increase dividend payouts at a faster pace.
话虽如此，与大多数房地产投资信托基金一样，我们注意到它上个月经历了大幅下跌。该股下跌了约8.4%，而实际上，在过去一年里，它下跌了4.58%，使其初始回报率约为4.75%。因此，这一初始回报率正接近5%的门槛。
That said, like most real estate investment trusts, we note that it experienced a significant decline last month. The stock has fallen by about 8.4%, and in fact, over the past year, it has fallen by 4.58%, giving it an initial return of about 4.75%.
Therefore, this initial return is approaching the 5% threshold.
因此，ADC当然也未能免受这类下跌的影响。ADC股票在当前价格下是否具有吸引力？它能否继续以健康的增速提高调整后的经营性现金流和股息？
Therefore, ADC was certainly not immune to this type of decline. Is ADC stock attractive at current prices? Can it continue to increase adjusted cash flow from operations and dividends at a healthy rate?
但简单说一句，我还想提一下，几天后我将采访AgriRealty Corporation的首席执行官。
But quickly, I would also like to mention that I will be interviewing the CEO of AgriRealty Corporation in a few days.
现在，当我们思考ADC时，重要的是首先要了解我们究竟在看什么样的房地产投资信托基金（REITs）。研究这个问题的最佳方式其实就是考察其底层资产。因此，我一直说，一家房地产投资信托基金最终的好坏取决于它的租户。
那么，Agree Realty的租户是谁？我们需要明白，这是一家商业房地产投资信托基金，在全国拥有约2,900处不同的物业。
Now, when we think about ADC, it’s important to start by understanding what kind of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) we’re actually looking at. The best way to look into this matter is really by examining the underlying assets.
Therefore, I have always said that a real estate investment trust is ultimately only as good as its tenants. So, who are Agree Realty's tenants? Well, we need to understand that this is a commercial real estate investment trust that owns approximately 2,900 different properties across the country.
真正令人印象深刻的是，你可以看到其65.8%的租户被认为是投资级的。作为一个简单的参照点，这一数字实际上高于Realty Income Corporation。因此，与同行相比，其投资组合的整体质量被认为非常强劲。
What is truly impressive is that you can see that 65.8% of their tenants are considered to be investment-grade. Now, as a kind of simple reference point, this figure is actually higher than Realty Income Corporation.
Therefore, the overall quality of their portfolio is considered very strong compared to their peers.
此外，这是一家以非常健康的增速增长的房地产投资信托基金。这通常是这些规模较小的房地产投资信托基金的优势之一。它们可以提高每股调整后的营运资金，你要记住，这是房地产投资信托基金的首要指标。
它是内在价值的最终衡量标准，而它们通常能够以更快的速度、更少的阻力来实现这一增长。
Moreover, this is a real estate investment trust that is growing at a very healthy rate. This is usually one of the advantages of these smaller real estate investment trusts. They can increase the adjusted funds from operations per share, which you should keep in mind is the primary metric for real estate investment trusts.
It is the ultimate measure of intrinsic value, but they can usually grow this at a much faster rate with fewer headwinds.
例如，如果Realty Income的增长在3%至3.5%的区间，那么Agree Realty Corporation在历史上，至少是最近，可能比这高出约一个百分点。它们一直处于4%至5%的区间，而且预计未来几年增长将继续保持相对强劲的速度。
For example, if Realty Income is growing in the range of 3 to 3.5%, Agree Realty Corporation has historically, at least recently, been perhaps one percentage point higher than that.
They have been in that range of 4 to 5%, and growth is expected to continue at a relatively strong rate over the next few years.
现在，确实值得一提的是，股息派发的覆盖非常充分。请记住，它是从交易产生的调整后资金中支付的。因此，我们可以看到，过去几年每股调整后的营运资金（AFFO）轻松覆盖了股息。再次强调，只要调整后的经营性现金流继续以这一速度增长，股息派发将继续以3%或4%、或许略高的速度增长。
Now, it is certainly worth mentioning that the dividend payouts are very well covered. Remember that it is paid from the adjusted funds from the transactions. Therefore, we can see that adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) per share have easily covered dividends over the past few years.
Once again, dividend payouts will continue to grow at a rate of three or four or perhaps slightly higher, as long as adjusted cash flow from operations continues to grow at that rate as well.
但我们能看到的是，尽管现金流和增长非常稳定，AgriRealty的估值倍数却出现了大幅下降，尤其是在过去一年里。我们可以看到，它的调整后价格与资金倍数约为14.4，但如果我们看过去五年的平均值，则更接近约16.83。
But what we can see is that despite very stable cash flows and growth, AgriRealty has seen a significant decline in its valuation multiple, particularly in the last year alone.
We can see that it is trading at an adjusted price-to-money multiple of around 14.4, but if we look at the average over the past five years, it is closer to approximately 16.83.
如果我们看最新的财报，可以看到他们实际上就在几个月前上调了2026年调整后每股收益的指引。
If we look at the latest earnings report, we can see that they actually raised their guidance for adjusted earnings per share for 2026 just a few months ago.
所以，举例来说，如果某人是股息投资者，现在正在寻找收益，并且正在关注AgriRealty约4.75%的收益率，他们就必须问自己，当可以获得5.25%的无风险收益率时，为什么要冒险去获取4.75%的收益率？这是许多人被迫要问的问题。
So, for example, if someone is an investor in dividends and is looking for income now, and is looking at this AgriRealty yield of about 4.75%, they have to ask themselves, why would they take the risk to get a 4.75% yield when they can get a risk-free yield of 5.25%?
This is a question that many people are forced to ask.
这里显而易见的答案是，如果你是长期投资者，AgriRealty将随着其内在价值的增长而继续提高派息。因此，你的优势不仅限于股息增长，你还会看到股价上涨。
The obvious answer here is that if you are a long-term investor, AgriRealty will continue to increase its distributions as its intrinsic value grows. As a result, your advantage is not limited to dividend growth, but you will also see an increase in the share price.
然而，AgriRealty就在几天前采取了一个有趣的举措。他们宣布了4亿美元无担保债券的定价，利率为5.65%，2036年到期。
However, AgriRealty took an interesting step just a few days ago. They announced the pricing of $400 million in unsecured bonds at 5.65% interest, maturing in 2036.
你可以看到，AgriRealty的情况确实如此。他们发行了大量股票，只要他们能从所募集的资本中获得正的投资回报，这未必是坏事。
And you can see that this was certainly the case for AgriRealty. They have issued a lot of shares, and that is not necessarily a bad thing as long as they can achieve a positive return on investment from the capital they have raised.
然而，这正是“AgriRealty”选择做的事。如果我们仔细看所发表的评论。此次发行将我们的流动性头寸提升至超过20亿美元。这笔交易以及直到2028年都没有大额债务到期，使我们的公司处于有利地位，能够在2027年之前执行我们的增长战略。
However, that is exactly what "AgriRealty" chose to do. If we look closely at the comment that was made. This offering boosts our liquidity position to over $2 billion. This deal and the absence of large debt maturities until 2028 put our company in a good position to execute our growth strategy until 2027.
简单来说，他们有20亿美元可用于支持收购和开发，这是该基金目前大部分增长的主要驱动力。他们还提到，未来几年没有任何大额债务到期。
Well, simply put, they have $2 billion available to support acquisitions and development, which is the main driver of most of the growth this fund is currently experiencing. They also mentioned that they do not have any large debts due in the next few years.
当我们看他们2026年第二季度的投资者演示材料时，可以看到这方面的证据。与2028年及以后有良好分级的债务到期安排相比，我们看到2026年剩余时间和2027年到期的债务非常少。
因此，他们筹集资本并不是因为需要偿还任何大额债务。事实上，资产负债表已经为当前的宏观经济形势做好了非常充分的准备。他们实际上提前对冲了利率上升的风险，而这现在确实带来了回报。
We can see evidence of this when we look at their investor presentation from the second quarter of 2026. Compared to 2028 and beyond, where there is a well-graded debt maturity schedule, we see that the remainder of 2026 and 2027 have very little debt due.
Therefore, they are not raising capital because they need to pay off any large debts. In fact, the balance sheet is already very well prepared for the current macroeconomic situation.
They essentially hedged against interest rate increases in advance, and this is really paying off right now.
现在，与没有进行对冲相比，该公司拥有大得多的能力去继续寻求收购，以更低的实际借贷成本购买物业。请密切关注这里 2026 年第二季度这一列。他们的加权平均资本化率为 7%。这说明了 ADC 用这些资本实际买到了什么。
所以，是的，他们确实在产生正的投资回报。于是，我们突然开始多多少少明白，为什么他们能够提高指引。
Now, the company has a much greater ability to go out and continue pursuing acquisitions to buy properties at lower effective borrowing costs than it would have without hedging.
Pay close attention to the Q2 2026 column here. Their average weighted capitalization rate is 7%. This illustrates what ADC actually buys with this capital. So, yes, they are indeed generating a positive return on investment.
And so, we suddenly began to understand a little more why they were able to raise the directives.
所以，我认为总体而言，当我们内部审视这只股票时，我们发现他们在上调指引。情况实际上进展得非常顺利。前方仍有显著的增长轨迹。管理层似乎相信这一点，分析师在审视他们对未来几年每股调整后净营运收入（AFFO）的预估时也是如此。
So, I think in general, when we look internally at the stock, we find that they are raising the guidance. Things are actually going very well. There is still a significant growth trajectory ahead.
Management seems to believe this, as do analysts when looking at their estimates of adjusted net operating income (AFFO) per share over the next few years.
我的意思是，随着 10 年期美国国债收益率持续上升，ADC 正处于 52 周以来的最低水平。那么，ADC 目前的实际估值是什么样子？嗯，分析师似乎再次对这只房地产投资基金至少在未来一年非常乐观。
他们指出较当前价格约有 23% 的上涨空间，给出的公允价值为 82.81 美元。
I mean, the ADC is at its lowest level in 52 weeks as 10-year Treasury yields continue to rise. So, what does ADC's actual valuation look like now? Well, once again, analysts seem very optimistic about this real estate investment fund for at least the next year.
They are pointing to an increase of about 23% from current prices, giving it a fair value of $82.81.
假设未来股息增长为 4%，公允价值约为 71 美元，这意味着约 6% 的上涨空间。如果我们把这个百分比提高到约 4.5%，就会非常接近分析师设定的平均目标价 82.81 美元。
我们随后会达到约 80.50 美元，这意味着约有 20% 的上涨。再次强调，这假设股息增长约为 4.5%。
Assuming a future dividend growth of 4%, the fair value is approximately $71, which implies an upside of approximately 6%. If we raise this percentage to about 4.5%, we will get very close to the average target price set by analysts at $82.81.
We then reach about $80.50, which means there is an increase of approximately 20%. Again, this assumes dividend growth of approximately 4.5%.
那么，ADC 能否实现这种水平的股息增长？我认为这是有可能的。这是我一定会向“Mispiced”播客的 CEO 提出的问题。
So, can ADC achieve this level of dividend growth? I think that's possible. It's a question I'll definitely be sure to ask the CEO of the "Mispiced" podcast.
这个频道对 $ADC 的历次判断
Dividendology 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。