基于估值折价与基本面强劲，AMAT 被上调至买入，但信心程度较低。
逐段跳播
由于人工智能驱动的基础设施竞赛，Applied Materials 正面临需求增长。该公司宣布，在最近一个财季营收同比增长 25%，并预计下一季度增速将加快至 51%。
Applied Materials is experiencing increased demand as a result of the AI-driven infrastructure race. The company announced revenue growth of 25% year-on-year in its most recent fiscal quarter, and expects growth to accelerate to 51% in the next quarter.
那么，这是否让 Applied Materials 的股票成为一个买入机会？8 月 6 日，我对 Applied Materials 的股票进行了评估，并告知投资者，当时它似乎并不是一个买入机会。业务无疑十分兴旺，但在我看来，其评级略高。
So, does this make Applied Materials stock a buying opportunity? On August 6, I evaluated Applied Materials stock and informed investors that it did not appear to be a buying opportunity at that time.
Business was certainly thriving, but the rating was a little high in my opinion.
事实证明这是正确的决定，因为 Applied Materials 的股价在过去一个月下跌了 22%。
This proved to be the right decision, as Applied Materials' stock fell by 22% over the past month.
那么，这个低价是否让该股现在更具吸引力？我认为它已变得更具吸引力，但让我们看看它是否会进一步上升到买入机会的水平。
So, does this low price make the stock more attractive now? I think it has become more attractive, but let's see if it goes beyond that to rise to the level of a buying opportunity.
你提到 Applied Materials 的营收正在蓬勃发展，过去 12 个月达到 310 亿美元。这相当于 2017 年约 100 亿美元水平的大约三倍。
You mentioned that revenues are booming at Applied Materials, reaching $31 billion over the past 12 months. This represents an increase of approximately three times what it was in 2017 at around $10 billion .
鉴于我们当前正经历的多年周期，Applied Materials 的营收很可能至少在未来几年继续增长。业务正在蓬勃发展，且如今具备长期前景，因为半导体买家希望为其产品锁定未来数年的需求。
客户订购这项技术方式的这一变化，使 Applied Materials 这样的公司能够更好地规划未来需求。
Given the multi-year cycle we are currently experiencing, Applied Materials revenues are likely to continue rising for at least several more years. Business is booming with a long-term outlook now , as semiconductor buyers look to secure demand for their products for several years into the future.
This change in the way customers order this technology allows companies like Applied Materials to better plan for future demand.
该公司大力投资以扩大其能力和供应，因为它确信其客户需要它的产品和服务。
The company invests heavily to expand its capabilities and availability because it is confident that its customers want its products and services.
每当我看到像 Applied Materials 这样蓬勃发展的企业时，我都喜欢查看营业利润率，以了解该公司是否在以牺牲盈利能力为代价来创造营收。Applied Materials 的情况显然并非如此。
Whenever I see a thriving business like Applied Materials, I like to look at the operating profit margins to see if the company is generating revenue at the expense of profitability.
This is certainly not the case with Applied Materials.
它不仅营收在增长，过去 12 个月还将营业利润率扩大至 31%，高于 2017 年的约 20%。这是该公司产品和服务存在有机需求的明确迹象。这不是增加广告、促销、激励或任何其他促销活动以刺激其产品和服务销售的结果。
这些全价销售带来了可观的需求。这也提高了盈利能力，因为他们几乎利用了 100% 的可用产能。
Not only is it growing in revenue , but it has also expanded its operating profit margin to 31% over the past 12 months, up from about 20% in 2017. This is a clear sign of organic demand for the company’s products and services.
This is not the result of increased advertising, promotions, incentives, or any other promotional activity to stimulate sales of its products and services. These full-price sales generate significant demand.
This also improves profitability because they are utilizing almost 100% of their available capacity.
因此，这不是一种轻资产业务模式。Applied Materials 的管理层正在增加资本投资，以满足对其产品和服务的日益增长的需求。
Therefore, this is not an asset-light business model. Applied Materials management is increasing capital investment to meet the growing demand for its products and services.
当我看到这一点时，我会把投入资本回报率视为对这类公司更重要的指标。对投资者来说好消息是，Applied Materials 的管理团队在资本配置方面一直卓有成效。而且这并非近期才有的现象。他们在过去十年中已证明了这一点。
When I see that, I look at return on invested capital as a more important metric for companies like these. The good news for investors is that Applied Materials' management team has been effective in allocating capital.
And this is not just a recent phenomenon. They have proven that over the past decade.
2017 年投入资本总回报率约为 15%，这一水平等于或超过其加权平均资本成本。随着合同推进和公司营收增长，这一指标有所改善。因此，可以合理假设，公司目前为满足未来需求所做的投资将产生足够的投入资本回报，从而提升股东价值。
The total return on invested capital was approximately 15% in 2017, a level equal to or exceeding their weighted average cost of capital . This metric improved as the contract progressed and the company's revenues increased.
Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that the investments the company is currently making to meet future demand will generate sufficient returns on invested capital to increase shareholder value.
一个多月前我评估 Applied Materials 时，那次评估的估值要高得多。事实上，估值达到了一个高位，远期市盈率接近 40。
When I reviewed Applied Materials a little over a month ago, the review was much more expensive. In fact, the valuation reached a high level where the forward price-to-earnings ratio approached 40.
我当时警告投资者，这个价格对这项业务来说略偏高。你一直在为最高的每股收益支付最高的估值。因此，她警告说，最好等价格下跌后再买入该股。
I warned investors at the time that this price was a little overpriced for this business. You have been paying maximum valuations for maximum earnings per share. Therefore, she warned that it is best to wait for the price to decline before buying the stock.
如果你有耐心，你现在正迎来我们一直在等待的那次回调。
And if you are patient, you are now getting that pullback we have been waiting for.
Applied Materials 目前的远期市盈率为 22.7，略低于该股过去几年交易的平均估值水平。这是一个更具吸引力的估值，考虑到该公司在营收、利润率和投入资本回报率方面的特征，这一估值甚至被认为低于公允价值。
Applied Materials is now trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 22.7, which is slightly below the average valuation at which the stock has traded over the past few years.
This is a more attractive valuation, and is even considered a valuation below fair value given the company’s characteristics in terms of revenue, profit margins, and return on invested capital.
我还更新了 Applied Materials 的现金流折现模型，最大的变化是上调了该业务未来几年预计产生的自由现金流，因为对其产品的需求以及行业需求都好于一个月、两个月或三个月前。
I also updated Applied Materials' discounted cash flow model , and the biggest changes were increases in the expected free cash flow that the business will generate over the next few years, as demand for their products and industry demand is better than it was a month, two months, or three months ago.
随着 2026 年的推进，对这些类型产品的需求预估、实际订单数量以及需求，都比我今年年初时的估计增长得更多。基于这些评估，在使用现金流折现模型衡量并计入我的安全边际后，Applied Materials 目前是一只估值合理的股票。
As 2026 progressed, demand estimates and actual order numbers and demand for these types of products increased more than I had estimated at the beginning of this year. Based on these reviews, Applied Materials is now a fair-valued stock when including my margin of safety when measured using the discounted cash flow model .
我计算出的公允价值是 378。当前市场价格是 417。因此，应用大约 10% 至 15% 的安全边际，我可以说，使用现金流折现模型来看，该股的估值似乎处于其公允价值或略微高估。
The fair value I calculated is 378. The current market price is 417. So, applying a margin of safety of approximately 10% to 15% , I can say that the stock appears to be valued at its fair value or slightly overvalued using the discounted cash flow model.
但从整体估值来看，其中还包括市场倍数和其他指标，该股的估值似乎处于其公允价值到略微低估之间。所以在 8 月 6 日，我并不认为这是一个买入机会，但如今在超过 20% 的折价下，我将对 Applied Materials 股票的评级上调至“买入”。
But when looking at the valuation as a whole, which also includes market multiples and other metrics, the stock appears to be valued at its fair value to slightly undervalued .
So on August 6 , I didn't think this was a buying opportunity, but today with a discount of more than 20%, I am upgrading my rating on Applied Materials stock to " buy".
考虑到 AI 市场变化的迅速和动态，我对这一评级仍然信心相对较低，而且我对这家公司的跟踪也不像我期望的那样密切。我希望了解更多，才能提高我对这一买入评级的信心和信念。
I still have a relatively low conviction about this ranking, given the speed and dynamism of the changing AI market , and I don't follow this company as closely as I would like to .
I would like to know more before my confidence and conviction in this purchase rating increases.
既然业务正在蓬勃发展，而我也在上调其评级，我想我会花更多时间来评估 Applied Materials。
Now that business is booming and I'm upgrading its rating, I think I'll be spending more time evaluating Applied Materials.
这个频道对 $AMAT 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。