AMAT 正处于抛物线式上涨后的多年回调阶段；应以博取反弹、逢高获利了结的方式交易，并预计未来数年趋势向下。
逐段跳播
好，Applied Materials。顺便说一句，这不是推荐。所以，偶尔做做这些没关系。不想每天都做，因为那样你们就会开始觉得这些都是推荐。所以，要小心。我们只是把当下脑子里在想的东西告诉你们。
All right. Applied materials. and not a recommendation by the way. So, don't mind doing these occasionally. Don't want to do these every day because al So, you guys will start thinking these are all recommendations.
So, be careful. We're just kind of giving you top of the the mind what we're thinking here.
谈到半导体板块，显然这一直是市场上热门领域之一，已经持续了一段时间。它曾经极其火热。其中很多都经历了大幅回调。
you know when you're talking about the semiconductor space, obviously this has been one of the hot areas of the market for a while. It was extremely hot. Um a lot of those have had big corrections.
但总体而言，这笔交易有若干个不同的层次，而 Applied Materials 当然处于正在发生的事情中偏制造的那一侧。
But um you know overall there's several different layers of the of that trade and and of course uh applied materials is on the kind of the manufacturing side of what's happening
再说一次，Brent，你可以把这张图调出来。Applied Materials 在这里已经经历了一次相当大的回调。
and and again so you can bring this chart up Brent. So applied materials has had a pretty big correction here.
盈利不错，前景不错。确实没有什么理由说不能持有 Applied Materials，而且它已经经历了一次像样的回调。它正在这里尝试筑底，但重要的是，它的交易价格仍远低于许多移动平均线。
Earnings are good, outlook is good. There's uh nothing really kind of going on uh you know to say not to own applied materials and it's been through a decent correction. It's it's trying to base here, but it's still trading well below a lot of its moving averages importantly.
所以，如果你想在这里尝试买入，你有一个相当不错的形态。你在这里买入，把止损设在约 418，也就是那条 200 日移动平均线。如果跌破那里，那就把止损保持在那里，保持得非常紧，你大概就没问题。
如果我们能突破那些移动平均线，那么有可能向此前的高点回升。但再说一次，这只是对该股的一个短期看法。
So, if you wanted to try to buy it here, you've got a pretty decent setup. You buy it here, you put a stop in at about 418, which is that 200 day moving average. If you take that out, then you know, pretty much just keep your stop there, keep it really tight, and you you'll probably be okay.
If we can break out above those moving averages, then potentially you've got a push back uh towards the previous highs. But again, this is a, you know, kind of just a short-term look on on this in on on the stock.
但如果你往回看，这是一张更长期的图。你会看到 Applied Materials 内部出现的这个非常大的尖峰。这就是整个半导体上涨行情。所以大部分机会、大部分轻松赚到的钱，在 Applied Materials 上已经赚完了。
所以你现在是在跟一只处于抛物线式尖峰之后价格回调中的股票打交道。所以要非常密切地交易它。这并不意味着公司有什么问题，但这些股票在之前那轮半导体追逐中远远跑在了前面。所以我们正在消化那轮抛物线尖峰的回归。
而这通常不会在几周或几个月内就解决。从历史上看，这通常需要一两年才能慢慢消化完。所以，我会把它当作反弹来交易，然后当你得到一个像样的反弹时，就获利了结一部分，寻找下一次回撤，因为这可能会继续反弹，但在未来几年里是在一个更低的趋势中反弹。
尤其是当我们开始看到半导体需求回落，因为未来两年数据中心这一进程逐渐完成。
But if you go back, this is this is a a longer term chart. You see this very big spike that occurred within applied materials. And this was the whole, you know, semiconductor push higher.
So most of the opportunity, most of the, you know, easy money was already made in applied materials. So you're kind of playing with a price, a a a stock that is within a price correction following a parabolic spike.
So trade this very closely. It doesn't mean there's anything wrong with the company, but these stocks got way ahead of themselves during that whole semiconductor chase previously.
And so we're kind of working through the reversion of that parabolic spike. And that typically doesn't resolve itself in just a couple of weeks or a couple of months. This is something that generally takes a year or two to kind of work itself out historically.
And so just, you know, I would trade this for bounces and then when you get a decent bounce, take some profits, look for the next retracement because this could continue to kind of bounce but bounce in a lower trend over the course of the next couple years. particularly once we start to see the demand for semiconductors pull back as we get this data center process kind of completed over the next two years.
这个频道对 $AMAT 的历次判断
The Real Investment Show 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。