AMD的AI加速器论点依然成立:它无需击败英伟达,只需在庞大且不断扩张的市场中占据可观份额,而英伟达的强劲需求为此提供了支撑。
完整内容
这条视频里关于 $AMD 说的每一段,按说话顺序排列。点任意一段,上面的视频跳到那里。
然后英伟达和 AMD,它们提供计算能力。
And then Nvidia and AMD, well, they provide compute.
让我们从最明显的 AMD 开始。乍一看,你可能会想,英伟达业绩好对 AMD 难道不是坏事吗?不一定。如果英伟达表示 AI 加速器需求依然巨大,超大规模企业继续增加支出,客户无法获得足够的计算能力,那就证明 AMD 正在一个巨大且不断扩大的市场中竞争。还记得我几个视频前关于 AMD 的论点吗?AMD 不必击败英伟达,甚至不必赶上英伟达。如果 AI 加速器市场变得足够大,AMD 只需要占据其中有意义的一部分。所以,英伟达的强劲需求实际上可以加强我对 AMD 的论点。危险在于,如果黄仁勋开始谈论加速器需求减弱,因为那样投资者就不再争论市场份额了,而是在争论整个市场是否在放缓。这对 AMD 来说要糟糕得多。
Let's begin with AMD, the most obvious. At first glance, you might think, well, wouldn't good Nvidia earnings be bad for AMD? Not necessarily. If Nvidia says AI accelerator demand remains enormous, hyperscalers continue increasing their spending, well, customers can't get enough compute, that's evidence that AMD is competing inside an enormous and expanding market. Remember my AMD thesis in a few videos back. AMD doesn't have to beat Nvidia. They They even have to catch Nvidia. If the AI accelerator market becomes large enough, AMD simply needs to capture a meaningful percentage of it. So, strong Nvidia demand can actually reinforce my AMD thesis. The danger would be if Jensen starts talking about weakening accelerator demand because then investors aren't debating market share anymore. They're debating whether the entire market is slowing. That's much worse for AMD.
这就是为什么我同时持有两边的敞口。我持有英伟达、AMD,以及博通和 Marvell,但它们的仓位大小各不相同。
This is why I own exposure to both sides of the equation. I own Nvidia, AMD, and then Broadcom and Marvell, but position sizing is different for all of them.
所以,周三晚上财报发布后可能有两种情景。情景一,英伟达大获全胜。营收超预期,每股收益超预期,毛利率保持,第三季度指引远高于 1040 亿美元。Rubin 按计划进行,黄仁勋表示需求继续超过供应。如果我们得到这样的组合,我认为你可能会看到 AI 板块出现显著的缓解性反弹,包括英伟达、AMD、台积电、博通、Marvell、Credo、美光,甚至可能包括 AI 基础设施和数据中心相关股票,因为市场得到了 AI 支出周期尚未结束的确认。需要明确的是,这不仅是我的希望,也是我的预期。
So, with that, there's really two scenarios that could take place after the report on Wednesday night. Scenario one, Nvidia crushes it. Revenue beats, EPS beats, margins hold, Q3 guidance comes in well above 104 billion. Ruben remains on schedule, and Jensen says demand continues exceeding supply. If we get that combination, I think you could see a significant relief rally across AI, Nvidia, AMD, Taiwan Semi, Broadcom, Marvell, Credo, Micron, potentially even AI infrastructure and data center names because the market gets confirmation the AI spending cycle isn't over. And to be clear, this is the scenario I'm not only hoping for, but also it's my expectation.
所以,总而言之,英伟达将于周三公布财报,这可能是本季剩余时间中最重要的财报。我关注的是920亿美元以上的营收、每股收益2.09美元,希望更高,75%的毛利率,以及第三季度指引与约1040亿美元的对比。对传闻中的需求有何看法?是否有任何销售进入中国?最重要的是,黄仁勋关于基础设施支出的评论。因为如果英伟达告诉我们需求仍然异常强劲,那不仅会加强我对英伟达的论点,还会加强我对AI投资组合中大部分公司的信心,包括AMD、台积电、博通、迈威尔、Credo、美光,以及可能更多公司。但如果我们开始看到裂痕,我不会仅仅因为我看好AI就忽视它们。这就是关注财报的全部意义。我们的论点应该跟随基本面,而不是反过来。周三晚上,我们将获得全年中最重要的基本面更新之一。
So, in conclusion, Nvidia reports Wednesday, and this is probably the most important earnings report remaining in the season. I'm watching 92 plus billion in revenue, $2.09 EPS, hoping for higher, 75% gross margins, and Q3 guidance versus roughly $104 billion. What's the take on rumor demand? Is there any sales heading into China? And most importantly, Jensen Huang's commentary around infrastructure spending. Because if Nvidia tells us demand remains extraordinary, that doesn't just strengthen my Nvidia thesis, it strengthens my conviction across much of the AI investment stack. AMD, Taiwan Semi, Broadcom, Marvell, Credo, Micron, and potentially many more. But if we start seeing cracks, I'm not going to ignore them simply because I'm bullish on AI. That's the entire purpose of following earnings. Our thesis should follow the fundamentals, not the other way around. And Wednesday night, we're going to get one of the most important updates of those fundamentals we receive all year.
他说在等什么
他自己说在等的东西,一段话一条记录。同一件事说过几次就出现几次,我们不合并,也不判断它有没有兑现。
这个频道对 $AMD 的历次判断
Mark Roussin, CPA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。