AMD是强力买入,得益于Helios货架需求及AI合作伙伴关系;预计股价将在2-3年内超过600-700美元。
逐段跳播
如果你是 AMD 的股东,你会想观看这个视频,因为我们将仔细审视过去几天影响 AMD 的许多事情。欢迎回到关于 AMD 的另一期节目。我想我们已经有几周没有谈论这家公司了。总的来说,我仍然对这家公司非常乐观。
我仍然相信它是这个价值数万亿美元市场中的参与者,因为 Helios 机架的增长机会最终会得到回报。而且我真心相信这是现实,你难道不这么认为吗?
If you are an AMD shareholder, you will want to watch this video as we will be taking a close look at many of the things that have affected AMD in the past few days . Welcome back to another episode here about AMD. I think we haven't talked about this company for a few weeks. Overall, I remain very optimistic about this company. I still believe it's a player in a market worth trillions of dollars because the growth opportunity for Helios shelves will indeed pay off . And I truly believe that this is the reality, don't you?
对我来说,最大的积极因素是“Helios”机架。不幸的是,不利的一面是,如果对“Helios”没有真正的需求,那么这家公司就被高估了。这就是我认为每个投资者在投资 AMD 时都应该理解的。
For me, the big positive would be the "Helios" shelves. Unfortunately, the downside is that if there is no real demand for "Helios", then this company is overvalued . This is what I believe every investor should understand when investing in AMD.
我相信需求是存在的。我们与 OpenAI、Anthropic、Microsoft、Meta、Oracle 等公司有着良好的合作关系,而且这样的合作还在不断增多。我认为随着时间的推移,我们会获得越来越多的合作。
I believe the demand exists. We have some great partnerships with companies like OpenAI, partnerships with Anthropic, with Microsoft, with Meta, with Oracle , and the list goes on and on . I think we will get more and more as time goes on.
但目前,股价徘徊在 450 美元左右。自年初以来,该股已上涨约 100%,这对投资者来说是非常好的回报。不幸的是,该股已从 52 周高点下跌约 21%。
But currently, the stock price is hovering around $450. Since the beginning of the year, the stock has risen by about 100%, so that's a very good return for investors. Unfortunately, the stock has fallen by about 21% from its 52-week high.
幸运的是,有博通和 AMD。这两家公司都有安全的供应链。我们知道 AMD 在台积电确保其制造。他们正在处理整个供应链,因为他们了解这个问题的规模。很可能,他们不像英伟达那样因为资产负债表而扩大业务范围。
但他们控制了部分供应。他们还达成供应协议,以确保部分供应链也得到保障。
Fortunately, there are Broadcom and AMD. Both of these companies have secure supply chains. We know that AMD secures its manufacturing at TSMC. They are working on the entire supply chain because they understand the scale of this issue. Most likely, they are not expanding their reach because of their balance sheet as Nvidia is. But they control part of the supply. They also make supply deals to ensure that part of the supply chain is secured as well.
对我来说,这是我对 AMD 感到兴奋的主要原因之一。再说一次,这一切真的取决于 AMD 团队,不是吗?要检查他们的工程能力,我认为他们有一个很棒的工程团队。他们在先进封装方面有一支出色的团队,但一切都取决于他们确保“Helios”系统符合所有这些公司真正需要的规格和速度。
我不只是在谈论性能,而是在谈论这个基础设施是如何构建的,不是吗?
For me, this was one of the main reasons for feeling excited about AMD. Again, it all really depends on the AMD team, doesn't it? To check their engineering, I think they have a great engineering team. They have an excellent team in advanced packaging, but it's all up to them to ensure that the "Helios" system matches the specifications and speed that all these companies really need. I'm not just talking about performance, but about how this infrastructure is built , aren't I?
没有哪家 AI 公司会想购买一款需要数年时间才能启动并运行的芯片,不是吗?或者需要很多很多个季度来准备它。这在这个领域是行不通的,也是不可接受的。那时他们会说:“也许我可以等英伟达获得更多供应,因为当我拿到它们时,我知道我可以让他们的系统以闪电般的速度运行。”
因此,AMD 需要在 Helios 生产爬坡系统中执行得极其出色,我相信他们正在这样做。但这是风险之一。
No AI company would want to buy a chip if it would take years to get it up and running, would it? Or it will take many, many quarterly periods to prepare it. This will not work , this will not be acceptable in this field. At that moment, they will say, " Maybe I can just wait for Nvidia to get more supplies, because by the time I get them, I know I can run their system at lightning speed." Therefore, AMD needs to execute extremely well during the Helios production ramp-up system, and I believe they are doing that. But this is one of the risks.
现在让我们回到 AMD,好吗?在这里我们继续 AMD 的故事。AI 的故事对 AMD 来说就在这里,而且一切都取决于 Helios,但如果 Helios 的表现像我预期的那样强劲,那么 AMD 的 AI 故事就已经开始了。
我这么说是什么意思?我的意思是,我们将继续看到 AMD 的营收连续增长,对吧?它在 6 月略有起色,但我在 2026 年 3 月看到了轻微的下滑,现在它真的开始复苏了。但我相信从现在开始,只要没有障碍,营收增长的故事将继续连续攀升。
Now let's get back to AMD, okay? Here we continue the AMD story. The AI story is here for AMD, and again it all depends on Helios, but if Helios performs as strongly as I think it does, then AMD’s AI story has already begun . What do I mean by that ? What I mean by that is that we will continue to see consecutive revenue growth for AMD , right? It started off a bit in June , but I saw a slight stumble in March 2026, and now it's really starting to recover. But I believe that from now on , as long as there are no obstacles, the revenue growth story will continue to climb consecutively.
对于下个季度,我们预计同比增长 40%,达到约 130 亿,然后这将在 2026 年 12 月加速,达到 160 亿,同比增长 56.7%。我相信接下来的一个季度也将看到更大幅度的增长加速。
我的意思是,如果我们看看 AMD 在 2026 年 12 月的地位,市场预期同比增长 46%,即使在这个强劲的基础之后,它预计下一年的增长约为 72%。因此,AMD 绝对是这个 AI 故事中不可或缺的一部分。
For the next quarter, we expect year-on-year growth of 40% to reach approximately 13 billion, and then this will accelerate in December 2026 to reach 16 billion with year-on-year growth of 56.7% . I believe the following quarter will also see an even greater acceleration in growth. I mean, if we look at AMD's position in December 2026, the market is expecting 46% year-over-year growth, and even after this strong base, it's expecting growth of approximately 72% in the following year. Therefore, AMD is definitely an integral part of this AI story.
我想强调的另一件事是市盈率与未来表现之比。未来十二个月看起来有点贵,为 41.1 倍。但在 2027 财年,也就是接下来的 18 个月里,这个比率将下降到 30 左右。对于一家刚刚开始 AI 故事的公司来说,这似乎并不疯狂,不是吗?
它甚至还不是一个十亿美元级别的参与者,而且随着这些公司的资本支出持续增长,它拥有巨大的机会。
Another thing I would like to highlight is the price-to-earnings-performing- futures ratio. The next twelve months look a bit expensive, at a level of 41.1. But in fiscal year 2027, that is, during the next 18 months, the ratio will drop to around 30. That doesn't seem crazy for a company that's just starting out in the AI story, does it? It's not even a billion- dollar player, and it has tremendous opportunities as these companies' capital expenditures continue to grow.
首先,Humane 现在在沙特阿拉伯提供由 AMD MI355 和 AMD EPYC 处理器驱动的生产力 AI 计算服务。诚然,355 型号不是机架级系统。所以那里的需求有限,但很高兴看到这一进展。
Firstly, Humane now offers productivity AI computing services in Saudi Arabia powered by AMD MI355 and AMD EPYC processors. True, the 355 model is not a rack-scale system . So, there is limited demand there, but it's great to see this progress.
现在,我认为更重要的是 AMD 表示,思科和 Humane 计划在 2027 年开始的下一阶段扩张中部署高达 250 兆瓦的 AI 基础设施。这里的“高达”一词是关键,但它说明几百兆瓦的计算意味着几十亿美元的收入。
一千兆瓦价值数百亿,我认为对 AMD 来说更接近 200 亿到 300 亿美元的收入。我的意思是,其中的四分之一仍然大约是 50 亿、60 亿或 70 亿美元。这仍然是一笔来自海外客户 Humane 的巨额资金。
他们仍有望在 2030 年前部署约 1 吉瓦的 AI 基础设施。所以,很高兴看到这种扩张。他们仍计划在 2027 年发布 MI450 处理器,这也很好。
Now, what I considered more important was that AMD stated that Cisco and Humane plan to deploy up to 250 megawatts of AI infrastructure as part of the next phase of expansion starting in 2027. The word "up to" is the key word here, but it illustrates that a few hundred megawatts of computing means a few billion dollars in revenue. One gigawatt is worth tens of billions, and I think it's closer to $20 to $30 billion in revenue for AMD. I mean, a quarter of that is still about $5, $6, or $7 billion. This is still a large sum from a single client, Humane, who is based abroad. They are still on track to deploy around 1 gigawatt of AI infrastructure by 2030. So, it's good to see this expansion . It's good that they're still planning to release MI450 processors in 2027 as well.
我们看到的另一件事是,AMD 的 Instinct 图形处理单元和 EPYC 中央处理单元将为欧洲的下一代 Lumi AI 超级计算机提供动力。他们将使用 AMD 的 Instinct MI430 图形处理单元和 AMD 的第六代 EPYC CPU。
关于 MI430,我喜欢 AMD 的一点是他们在先进封装方面的卓越能力。所以,他们真的能够利用这种微芯片架构,按照他们需要的方式设计芯片,对吧?你有 MI450 处理器用于真正的 AI 加速器和 AI 实验室。
至于主权 AI,你可能需要模拟和某些不一定总是专注于 AI 工作负载的东西的混合,MI430 非常适合这一点。我认为他们还有其他解决方案,但这确实让 AMD 进入了那个同样疯狂增长的主权市场。
因此,这将基于 MI430X 处理器和 AMD 的新 CPU 解决方案构建。部署计划于 2027 年下半年开始。这意味着如果计划在那时部署,一些 430 处理器可能会在 2027 年上半年售出。
所以,这些是更多的小客户,这里那里的小客户,开始作为一个巨大的客户出现,对吧?如果你开始让很多较小的参与者通过这种基础设施押注以及所有这些不同的 GPU 扩张,那有助于建立收入。
所以,再说一次,年轻参与者是好的,尤其是当你不断看到很多这样的新闻时。
The other thing we saw was that AMD’s Instinct graphics processing units and Epic central processing units will power the next generation of the Lumi AI supercomputer in Europe. They will be using AMD's Instinct MI430 graphics processing units and AMD's sixth-generation Epic CPUs . Now, regarding the MI430, one of the things I love about AMD is their great prowess in advanced packaging. So, they are really able to use this microchip architecture and design the chip the way they need it, right ? You have MI450 processors for real AI accelerators and AI labs. As for sovereign AI, where you might need a mix of simulation and certain things that don't necessarily always focus on AI workloads , the MI430 is great for that. I think they have other solutions too, but this really allows AMD to enter that sovereign market, which is also growing like crazy. Therefore , this will be built on the MI430X processors and AMD's new CPU solution. Deployment is scheduled to begin in the second half of 2027. This means that some 430 processors will likely be sold in the first half of 2027 if deployment is planned for that time. So, these are more small customers, small customers here and there, starting to appear as one huge customer , right? If you start getting a lot of smaller players expanding through this infrastructure bet, and through all these different GPUs, that helps build that revenue. So, again, young players are good, especially when you keep seeing a lot of news like this.
接下来我们希望看到的是,AMD 已经改变了数据中心客户群。Dan McNamara,企业计算和人工智能高级副总裁兼总经理,写了一篇关于此事的博客文章。他基本上是在说,现在应该集成到 AI 服务器中,以及一般的服务器中。
公司目前往往有很多过时的产品。这些是之前已经看到过的一些客户。在人工智能之前,我们已经看到了这一点。也许没有达到那种程度,但我们见证了高层次的讨论。我们在这里看到的是,组织可以将运行五到七年旧的 Intel Xeon Platinum 处理器的 100 台服务器整合到仅 14 台运行 AMD EPYC 处理器的服务器中。
这代表了 86% 的改进,能耗降低 69%,三年总拥有成本降低 41%。所以,他们再次将此作为一个真正的理由来推动这样的方向:“嘿,你需要升级那些旧的处理器,它们已经用了五六年了,因为你会节省很多钱。”
但现在,最大的不同是,你受到可用能源量的限制。所以,如果你能减少所有这些服务器中处理器消耗的电量,你就获得了空间,更重要的是,你获得了以前没有的电量。现在,有了这些电量,你可以说:“看,我现在可以为我的组织购买几台 GPU 服务器或 AI 服务器了。”
底线是,服务器整合可能不是 IT 官员当前议程上最突出的项目,但它是一个切实且可衡量的项目。所以,最终,也许不是这个季度或下个季度,但总有一天 IT 官员会说:“终于到了升级那些旧服务器处理器的时候了。”
是时候添加新的服务器处理器以获得更好的空间,更重要的是,这也为购买一些 AI 服务器打开了可能性。所以我认为有趣的是,要意识到 AMD 存在这种潜在的额外支持。
The next thing we want to see is that AMD has changed the data center accounts. Dan McNamara, senior vice president and general manager of enterprise computing and artificial intelligence, wrote a blog post about it. He is essentially saying that there should be integration into AI servers now. And servers in general. Companies currently tend to have a lot of outdated products. These are some of the accounts that have been viewed previously. Before artificial intelligence , we had already seen this. Perhaps not to that extent, but we have witnessed high-level discussions. What we see here is that organizations can consolidate 100 servers running five- to seven-year-old Intel Xeon Platinum processors into just 14 servers running AMD EPYC processors. This represents an 86% improvement , with a 69% reduction in energy consumption and a 41% reduction in the total cost of ownership over three years. So, once again, they were presenting this as a real reason to push in the direction of: "Hey, you need to upgrade those old processors, which are 5 or 6 years old, because you'll save a lot of money ." But now, the big difference is that you are limited by the amount of energy you have available. So, if you can reduce the amount of power consumed by these processors in all these servers, you gain space and, more importantly, you gain power that you didn't have before. And now, thanks to this power, you can say: "Look, I can now buy a few GPU servers or AI servers for my organization." The bottom line is that server consolidation may not be the most prominent item on IT officials' agenda right now, but it is a tangible and measurable project. So, eventually, maybe not this quarter or next, but there will come a time when IT officials will say, "It's finally time to upgrade those old server processors." It's time to add new server processors to get better space and, more importantly , it opens up the possibility of buying some AI servers as well. So I think it's interesting to realize that there is this kind of potential additional support for AMD.
然后,在 8 月 27 日,也就是一周多前,我们看到 AMD 发布了 ROCm 10。这是他们的软件平台,用于帮助处理他们的所有解决方案。很高兴继续看到这些更新。他们表示这是一个新的 AI 驱动的开发平台,并且他们添加了许多 AI 工具和 AI 解决方案来帮助软件开发。
所以很高兴看到 AMD 不仅专注于机架系统、单个处理器或单个图形处理单元,还专注于软件领域。借助人工智能,这一过程正在以极快的速度加速。
Then, on August 27, just over a week ago, we saw AMD launch ROCm 10. This is their software platform to help work with all of their solutions. It's great to continue seeing these updates. They stated that this is a new AI-powered development platform, and they added many AI tools and AI solutions to help with software development as well. So it's great to see AMD not only focusing on rack systems, individual processors, or individual graphics processing units, but also focusing on the software domain. With artificial intelligence, this process is accelerated at rapid levels.
现在,周五早上,我想大约 5 点,AMD 发表了看起来像主题演讲的讲话。我想她是在欧洲,在 IFA 2026 大会上。我们过去经常在那里谈论本地人工智能设备。AMD 与其业务合作伙伴提出了一些有趣的解决方案。
我们看到了联想的 ThinkCenter 设备。我们现在正在进入一个也需要一些本地人工智能的市场。AMD 已经做到了这一点。我认为他们在 CES 期间或之前展示了 AI Halo 技术。
现在,我们正在转向更多类似的解决方案,你将能够连接多达四台这样的设备来提升性能并获得强大的本地 AI 解决方案。他们实际上展示了笔记本电脑的概念。
Now, on Friday morning, I think around 5:00, AMD gave what looked like a keynote address. I think she was in Europe, at the IFA 2026 conference . We used to talk a lot about local artificial intelligence devices there. AMD has put forward some interesting solutions with their business partners. We see the ThinkCenter device from Lenovo. We are now entering a market where we also need some local artificial intelligence . AMD has already done that. I think they showcased the AI Halo technology during CES or maybe before that. Now, we're moving to more similar solutions, and you'll be able to connect up to four of these devices to boost performance and get powerful local AI solutions. They actually presented concepts for laptops.
所以,看起来这就是市场发展的方向,因为 AMD 现在也开始这样做了。我认为这里的主要驱动力之一是苹果。苹果当时占据了很多市场份额,不是吗?MacBook 在销售,Mac Studio 电脑也在持续销售。
AMD 和 Nvidia 表示这是一个市场机会,我们需要借助这个 AI 故事进入其中。这也让他们能够继续扩展他们的软件系统,不是吗?AMD 能够围绕自己扩展其软件生态系统,以吸引未来潜在的新开发者。
So, it seems that this is the direction the market is heading because AMD has now started doing it as well. I think one of the main drivers here was Apple. Apple was capturing a lot of market share, wasn't it? MacBooks were selling , and Mac Studios computers continued to sell. AMD and Nvidia say this is a market opportunity and we need to get into it with this AI story. This also allows them to continue expanding their software system , doesn't it? AMD is able to expand its software ecosystem around itself to attract potential new developers in the future.
所以,在我看来,这里对 AMD 来说有很多好消息。我不知道今年股价会是多少,或者最终会落在哪里,但我仍然坚信,这只股票在未来两到三年内将达到超过 600 美元,甚至 700 美元的价格。在
So, in my opinion, there's a lot of great news here for AMD. I don't know where the stock price will be this year or where it will end up, but I still strongly believe that this stock will reach a price of more than $600, and even $700, within the next two to three years . In the
他说在等什么
这个频道对 $AMD 的历次判断
Jose Najarro Stocks 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。