尽管估值偏高,AMD仍被低估,预计在AI效率提升带动总需求增长的推动下,于2026年底至2027年初升至500至600美元。
逐段跳播
AMD 低了 22%。
AMD is 22% below.
AMD 高达 117。
AMD is a whopping 117.
所以把它和 AMD 的 117 相比。完全是不同的生意,但 26 看起来要好得多。AMD 是 117,等之后我讲 AMD 的时候,我们会谈谈为什么它这么高。
So compare that to AMD at 117. Totally different businesses, but you know 26 seems a lot better. AMD at 117, we'll talk about why it's that high later on when I cover AMD.
所以,下一只股票是 AMD,市盈率为 117。各位,117 很疯狂,人们都在说 AMD 被高估了。我强烈不同意。我认为到 2026 年 AMD 可以达到每股 500 到 600 美元。
我认为它实际上真的很便宜。我认为它被低估了。在我看来,短期内它目前被低估了 15% 到 20%。所以如果 AMD 在 2026 年 10 月、11 月或 12 月达到每股 550 美元左右,我不会感到意外。
嘿,也许甚至会在本月,也就是 9 月晚些时候发生。
So, the next stock is AMD's with a PE ratio of 117. Now, guys, 117 is crazy and people are saying AMD is overpriced. I strongly disagree. I think in 2026 AMD can be $500 to $600 per share. I think it's actually really cheap. I think it's undervalued. Uh in my opinion, currently it's undervalued by 15 to 20% in the shorter term. So I wouldn't be surprised to see AMD at around $550 per share in October, November, or December of 2026. Hey, maybe even happens later on in um this month of September.
但没错,市值是 7450 亿美元。而这实际上是这份名单上最贵的估值倍数,高出四倍。所以这可能会有点奇怪,比如为什么 Uncle Henry 会谈论一只市盈率非常高的股票。让我解释一下原因,因为这一只确实需要解释。52 周区间是从 150 到 5.85。
But yeah, the market cap is $745 billion. And this is actually the most expensive multiple on the list by a factor of four. So it might be a little bit weird like why is Uncle Henry talking about you know a stock that has a really high PE ratio. Well let me explain why because this one needs explaining. 52 week range is from 150 to 5.85.
而这实际上是我在我的 leaps 挑战中选出的表现最好的股票。所以早在 1 月我进行了一次 leaps 挑战,我们在 7 月结束。我们提前结束了,因为我个人最终把账户翻了一倍。
所以我很快会启动一次新的 leaps 挑战。它真的真的被问得非常多,非常受欢迎。所以我很快就会再次启动。但这是我当时最好的操作。
And this is actually the stock that I picked that did the best in my leaps challenge. So back in January I ran a leaps challenge and we ended in July. We ended early because I personally ended up doubling the account. So I am going to launch a new leaps challenge pretty soon here. It's really really been asked very popular. So I will launch that again soon. But this was the top play that I had.
老实说,我仍然看好 AMD。我认为这只股票显然已经从 52 周低点上涨了很多。但我认为我们可以再创一个 52 周新高。我认为这会在 2027 年初发生。
And honestly I am still bullish on AMD. I think this stock is you know obviously gone up a lot from its 52- week low. But I think that we can hit another 52- week high. I think that's going to happen in early 2027.
所以,为什么关于 AMD 的看空故事其实说不通,我认为看空的人太多了,他们会亏钱,或者只是错过这波上涨,当股价从大约 455 涨到大约 555 的时候,我认为这不会花太长时间。
So, why the bear story on AMD doesn't really make sense and I think there's too many bears and they're going to be losing money or just missing out on on the runup when the stock goes from like 455 to like 555 which I think is not going to take that long.
所以,AI 模型变得越来越便宜,而且效率越来越高。所以,显然这两家公司处于最前沿,也就是 Nvidia 和 AMD,它们与 AI 支出高度相关。所以这绝对是无可否认的事实。现在它们供应驱动 AI 的芯片。
So, AI models are getting cheaper and cheaper and they keep getting more efficient. So, obviously these two companies are at the forefront so Nvidia and AMD and are heavily linked to AI spending. So that is absolutely undeniably true. Now they supply chips that power AI
而核心观点是,如果 AI 模型运行起来越来越便宜、效率越来越高,尤其是随着新的中国 AI 模型出现,中国在 AI 方面做得非常好。我想说它们并不处于最前沿,但它们被大量使用,因为它们就是便宜得多。
而看空的人基本上认为,因为中国,芯片需求会减少,因为 AI 模型效率更高了。不对吧?但我个人认为这可能是最离谱的说法。
and the bare idea is that if AI models keep getting cheaper to run and more efficient and you know especially with new Chinese AI models coming out you know China is doing extremely well with AI. They're not at the forefront I want to say but they are heavily used because they're just a lot cheaper. And the bears basically think that because of China there's going to be less chip demand because AI models are more efficient. No, right? But I personally think that could be furthest from the truth.
而最疯狂的部分是,这一点在 1865 年就被弄清楚了。让我解释一下这意味着什么。1865 年,William Stanley Jevons,一位英国经济学家和逻辑学家,发现了关于煤炭的一件奇怪的事。
历史,这个故事正在重演。好吧。就像 AI 一样,蒸汽机变得越来越高效,意味着驱动它们所需的煤炭少得多。所有人都预期煤炭消费会下降。但实际发生的恰恰相反。蒸汽机效率高得多,成本效益也高得多。
而这实际上等于开始在一个以前从未有过意义的地方变得有意义。然后煤炭开始被用在许多以前没有使用的地方。而煤炭的需求就爆发了,对吧?它并不是单一的用途。所以你猜怎么着?同样的事情正在 AI 上发生。
那些无法证明 AI 成本合理的公司,突然就能了,因为 AI 成本在下降。而这等于整体 AI 消费在上升。所以尽管价格在下降,这对市场来说效率高得多。但我实际上认为需求只会增加,非常类似于 19 世纪中后期煤炭所发生的情况。所以在我看来,会有更多 AMD 芯片被购买。
And the craziest part was that this was figured out in 1865. And let me explain what that means. In 1865, William Stanley Joins, an English economist and logician, figured out something odd about coal. The history, the story is repeating itself. Okay. Like AI, steam engines were getting much more efficient, meaning much less coal was needed to power them. And everyone expected coal consumption to go down. But the opposite actually happened. Steam engines were way more efficient and way more cost effective. And that actually equaled to starting to make sense in a place it never had before. And then coal started being used in many places that it was not used before. And the demand just exploded for coal, right? It was not a singular use case. So guess what? The same thing is happening with AI. Companies that couldn't justify AI costs suddenly will be able to due to AI costs going down. And this is equal to overall AI consumption going up. So despite the prices coming down, this is way more efficient for the market. But I actually think demand is only going to increase very similar to what happened to coal back in the, you know, mid to late 1800s. So more AMD chips are going to be bought in my opinion.
大多数普通投资者甚至都没有意识到这一点。我只是想让你看看 AMD 的财务数据,因为它们变得越来越好。所以,数据中心业务收入为 67 亿美元,同比增长 107%,受 APYC 处理器和 AMD Instinct GPU 强劲需求的推动。
Most average investors don't even realize this. And I just want you to look at AMD's financials because they keep getting better and better. So, data center segment revenue was $6.7 billion, up 107% year-over-year, driven by strong demand for APYC processors and AMD Instinct GPUs.
你可以在这里看到 GAP 季度财务业绩第二季度,你可以看到 2025 年第二季度。所以,这是同比比较。收入增长 50%。毛利润,可以说更重要,增长 103%。你可以看到这里一切都在上升。
没有任何一项是下降的。运营费用当然会上升,但运营收入大幅上升。你可以看到 1,500。
You can see here the GAP quarterly financial results Q2 and you can see Q2 2025. So, this is a year-over-year comparison. Revenue up 50%. gross profit, which arguably is even more important, up 103%. And you can see here everything is up. There's nothing that's down. Operating expensive is of course going to be up, but operating income is up a ton. You can see 1,500.
所以,这正是为什么市盈率不重要。请跟我重复。AMD 的市盈率不重要,就像它对 Amazon 在增长时期不重要一样,就像它对 Tesla 在达到数千倍时不重要一样。在最近的例子中,Palanteer,市盈率大约 4600,那也没有阻止 Palanteer,对吧?
So, this is exactly why the PE ratio doesn't matter. Please repeat with me. The PE ratio for AMD doesn't matter just like it didn't matter for Amazon when they were growing for Tesla when it was in the thousands. In the most recent case, Palanteer, which was like 4600 PE ratio, that didn't stop Palanteer either, right?
而我基本上看到 AMD 有非常类似的情况。我认为市盈率不会重要。117 的市盈率、以 455 美元交易,看起来贵,但实际上很便宜。我真的认为它便宜,因为它们增长得如此之快。
And I basically see something pretty similar for AMD. I think the P ratio is not going to matter. The P ratio of 117 trading for $455 that is looks expensive, but it's actually cheap. I really think it's cheap because of how fast they are growing.
所以 AMD 在 2026 年第二季度达到了创纪录的 115 亿美元收入,利润约为 62.3 亿美元。你知道这有多疯狂吗?利润率如此之高。对我来说,这就是为什么我能接受 117 的市盈率。
So AMD in Q2 2026 reached a record 11.5 billion in revenue with profit at about 6.23 billion. You know how insane that is? That is such a high profit margin. And to me that's why I'm okay with 117 PE ratio.
现在第二个来源,也就是下一个论点,是把自己放在买方的位置上。那么谁是买方?买方是 Microsoft。是 Meta。是所有那些超大规模云厂商。如果你是 Meta,或者你是 Microsoft,或者你是一个正在建设国家数据中心的主权基金,你即将在芯片上花费数百亿美元,对吧?
你真的想让一个供应商来定价吗?大概不想。你不想和一个垄断者打交道。你可能想拥有一个垄断者,但当你是一个从垄断者那里购买的人时,这并不好,对吧?而垄断对公平竞争也不利,这意味着价格会被抬高。
所以采购史上从来没有人想要那样。所以单一供应商意味着单一价格。单一供应商意味着单一交货周期。单一供应商意味着一条出口规定就能让你停摆。每一个大型买方都有结构性的理由让它行得通。
所以 AMD 不需要成为 Nvidia。AMD 只需要足够可信,让买方能在谈判中指着它。而这也是
Now the second source and the you know next argument is put yourself in the seat of the buyer. So who's the buyer? Well the buyer is Microsoft. It's Meta. It's all the you know hyperscalers. If you're Meta or you're Microsoft or you're a sovereign fund building a national data center, you are about to spend tens of billions on chips, right? Do you really want one supplier setting the price? Probably not. You don't want to be working with a monopoly. You might want to own a monopoly, but when you are someone that's buying from a monopoly, it's not good, right? And a monopoly is also not good for fair competition, which means that prices will be inflated. So nobody in the history of procurement has ever wanted that ever. So single suppliers means a single price. Single supplier means single lead time. Single supplier means one export rule away from a shutdown. Every large buyer has a structural reason to make work. So AMD doesn't need to be Nvidia. AMD needs to be credible enough that buyers can point at it in a negotiation. And this is also
而这也非常重要,因为我实际上有点把这看作是一种双头垄断。不一定非得是单一垄断,但当市场上公司非常少时,它就会形成一种双头垄断,它们可以某种程度上合作,仍然设定非常高的价格。而这基本上就是我在 AMD 和 Nvidia 身上看到的。
And this is also really important because I actually kind of see this as like a duopoly. Doesn't have to be a single monopoly, but when there's very few companies in the market, it kind of creates a duopoly where they can sort of work together and still set very high prices. And that's pretty much what I see with AMD and Nvidia.
所以现在这是另一面。这是这份名单上风险最高的名字,以下是为什么的算术。当然,市盈率 117。价格已经假设了很多事情必须发生,对吧?我认为确实会,但要注意风险。
So now here's the flip side. This is the riskiest name on this list and here's the math on why. Of course, the P ratio 117. The price is already assuming a lot has to go, right? Which I think it is, but pay attention to the risk.
数据中心支出放缓,整个订单簿被往后推。软件方面的缺口持续存在,买家按兵不动。只要其中任何一种情况发生,117 倍的市盈率就会被空头拿下。
Data center spending slows in the whole order book gets pushed out. The software gap holds and buyers stay put. Any of that happens and the 117 PE ratio is going to be won by the bears.
此外还有一些地缘政治因素,比如这些芯片是在台湾制造的。出口规则可能因为一纸公告就改变。是的,这确实是一个风险,但我确实认为 AMD 和 Nvidia 一样,会继续繁荣发展。这也是为什么在本视频列出的五只股票中,我实际上最看好 AMD,尽管这五只我都喜欢。
So then there's also some geopolitics like these chips are made in Taiwan. export rules can change with a single announcement. And yes, that is a risk, but I do think that AMD, like Nvidia, is going to continue to prosper. And that's why I'm actually the most bullish on AMD of probably the list of five stocks in this video, although I like all five.
Netflix 上涨了,AMD 上涨了,而 Iran 显然我们没有市盈率,但当它们真正实现盈利时,Iran 的市盈率会很高。
Uh Netflix is higher, AMD is higher and then Iran is obviously we don't have a PE ratio, but when they do become profitable, I rent is going to have a high PE ratio.
观察点
这个频道对 $AMD 的历次判断
Invest with Henry 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。