AMD凭借CPU顺风和市场份额提升具备高增长潜力，但47倍估值带来高波动性，适合采用定投策略。
逐段跳播
好，第二家公司是你们想聊的那一家，就是 AMD。你看 AMD，它在这里是直接竞争对手，而它的过去 12 个月营收只有 410 亿美元。所以，它从 Nvidia 手中夺走的任何市场份额，都会对这项业务的增长产生巨大影响。
All right, the second company is one that you wanted to talk about. That is AMD. You look at AMD, it is a direct competitor here, and it only has 41 billion in trailing 12-month revenue.
So, any market share that it could take from Nvidia would be hugely consequential to the growth of this business.
现在，事实上，AMD 本身已经增长得非常好。OpenAI、Anthropic 和 Meta 都是 AMD 的客户。它们并非只使用 Nvidia 的产品，它们确实大量使用。我不会说它们不用。
Nvidia 的 CUDA 软件确实在一定程度上把它们锁定住了。但已经有一些协议，要使用 AMD 的硬件。既包括 GPU，也包括 CPU。
Now, as it is, it AMD's already growing very nicely on its own. OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta are all customers of AMD. They don't use exclusively Nvidia products, they do use a lot.
Now, I'm not going to say that they don't. And the CUDA software from Nvidia does keep them locked in to a degree. But there is a there are agreements in place to use AMD hardware as well. In both GPUs, but also in the CPUs.
是的，过去十年左右，他们真正建立起自己的业务，靠的就是充当那种大宗供应商，而不是去和这些强大的公司打交道，而 Intel 是最先这么做的。他们进来说：“嘿，我们愿意和你们合作。”
我想 Amazon 算是这里的大牌。“我们愿意和你们合作，打造一款运行效率更高、成本略低一些的芯片。我们甚至可以接受略低一点的利润率。”而你成长的方式，就是用与竞争对手不同的方式去回应客户的问题。
Yeah, and that's they have really built their business over the past decade or so on being sort of the commodity supplier, you know, instead of dealing with these powerful companies and Intel was really the one that that happened first.
They came in and said, "Hey, we'll work with you." Amazon, I think was was kind of the big name here. "We'll work with you to create a chip that's going to run more efficiently, that's going to be a little bit lower cost.
We'll take maybe even a little bit lower margin." And that's that's how you kind of grow is by answering your customers questions differently than your competitor can.
AMD 可以进来说：“嘿，我们能把一件事做得非常好。”也许那一件事对 Amazon 来说价值极高。于是这就成了他们的一大块业务。所以，我认为这是那种水涨船高的领域之一，但就像你说的，那一点市场份额的变化，对 AMD 这样的公司来说可能意义重大。
AMD can come in and say, "Hey, we can do one thing really well." And maybe that one thing is really highly valued by Amazon. And so then that that becomes a big business for them.
So, I think it is one of those areas where a rising tide can lift all boats, but then like you said, that small market share change can be huge for a company like AMD.
是的，你看 AI 训练。那确实是一个 GPU 倍增器，而且仍将继续是 GPU 倍增器。你看 OpenAI 最新的 GPT-6，据说训练所用的 GPU 数量比前几代大幅增加。但智能体应该是 CPU 的倍增器。
而既然 AMD 在 CPU 领域是这么大的玩家，这可能是一个不错的顺风。我认为 Nvidia 进军 CPU，某种程度上验证了这个理论：“是的，我们未来实际上会需要多得多的 CPU。”
Nvidia 竟然会朝这个方向发力。所以，就从此处吹来的顺风而言，也许天平正开始更多地偏向 AMD。
Yeah, you look at AI training. I mean, that was really a GPU multiplier and will still continue to be a GPU multiplier. You look at OpenAI's latest GPT-6, supposedly trained on just substantially more GPUs than prior generations.
But agents are supposed to be the CPU multiplier. And so since AMD is such a big player in CPUs, that could be a nice tailwind here. And I think that Nvidia's pushing to CPUs is kind of validation to that theory that, "Yeah, we're actually going to need a lot more CPUs in the future."
The fact that Nvidia would be leaning into that at all. So, maybe the scales are starting to tip more in AMD's favor when it comes to the tailwinds that are blowing from here.
好，我想最后稍微谈一下估值，因为你看看我们谈过的那些规模更大的公司，Alphabet 的预期市盈率约为 25 倍，Amazon 的预期市盈率约为 27 倍，而 AMD 和 Marvell 则处于截然不同的境地。
AMD 的预期市盈率约为 47 倍，Marvell 约为 43 倍。
All right, I want to end with a little bit on valuation because you look at the bigger companies that we talked about, Alphabet, trading for about 25 times forward earnings estimates, Amazon trading for about 27 times forward estimates, AMD and Marvell in a very different boat.
Uh AMD trading for about 47 times forward estimates and Marvell at about 43.
这类公司是不是投资者应该伺机关注的对象，或者说，如果出现大幅回调，你能以略低一点的价格买到这些公司，那才是你想出手的时候，也许围绕 AI 交易会有一些负面情绪，而其中一些核心科技公司确实会回调 50%、60%、70%。
那才是存在长期机会的地方，还是说你并不担心价格？
Is this the kind of company that investors should be looking at, hey, at opportunistically or if there's a big pullback and you can get these companies for a little bit cheaper, that's when you want to, you know, maybe there's some negativity, right, around the AI trade and some of these core technology companies do pullback, you know, 50, 60, 70%.
That's where there's opportunity long-term or you not worried about the price?
也许我应该这样回答。我认为，相比 Amazon 和 Alphabet，AMD 和 Marvell 的贝塔值或波动性应该会更高。所以，如果你今天想只做一笔投资，也许你会想要 Amazon 和 Alphabet 这类贝塔值较低的股票，而且你不太担心大幅回调，因为它们是实力雄厚的大公司。
如果你更担心波动性，也许 Marvell 和 AMD 是适合定投的标的，你要明白它们很可能在某个时点大幅走低，也可能大幅走高。你并不知道顶部和底部在哪里。所以，你只能对一个仓位进行定投。
Well, maybe I should answer it like this. I mean, I think that you should expect higher beta or higher volatility with AMD and Marvell compared to Amazon and Alphabet. So, if you are looking to make a single investment today, maybe you want the lower beta stocks in Amazon and Alphabet and you're not too worried about a huge pullback because these are huge powerful companies.
If you're more concerned about the volatility, maybe Marvell and AMD are ones that you dollar cost average in, understanding that chances are they will be significantly lower at some point and also significantly higher.
You don't know where the top and the bottom is. So, you're just going to dollar cost average a position.
这个频道对 $AMD 的历次判断
The Motley Fool 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。