AMD 数据中心业务快速增长、在 AI 基础设施中的角色不断扩大,支撑看多逻辑,股价有望涨至 1000 美元以上。
逐段跳播
这就引出了AMD,即Advanced Micro Devices。AMD拥有一个独特的位置:它在中央处理器(CPU)市场占据主导地位,但这里的优势不在于跑赢Nvidia,而在于缩小与它的差距。做到这一点可能为投资者带来巨大收益。
This leads me to AMD, Advanced Micro Devices. AMD has a unique position where it dominates the central processing unit (CPU) market, but the advantage here is not in outperforming Nvidia, but in narrowing the gap with it.
Doing so could lead to huge gains for investors.
如果你还记得,本月初我发布了一个视频,标题是“我要把4万美元投进这一只股票”。那只股票就是AMD。在那个视频里,我分享了我当时正在建立的一笔期权交易,即卖出一份10月16日到期、行权价为370美元的看跌期权,每份合约为我带来了350美元。
今天,你可以用60美元买回那份期权,这意味着如果你决定跟随我并平掉这笔期权交易,你每份合约将获利290美元,即这笔交易的利润率为83%。
If you recall, at the beginning of this month I posted a video titled "I'm investing $40,000 in this single stock." Well, that one stock was AMD. In that video, I shared with you an options trade I was entering, which was selling a put option for October 16 at a price of $370, which generated $350 for me per contract.
Today, you can repurchase that option for $60, which means that if you had decided to follow me and close the options trade, you would have made a profit of $290 per contract or an 83% profit margin on the trade.
好,回到AMD。AMD如今几乎在整个AI生态系统中都有布局,包括GPU、CPU、网络、软件以及Helios机架级系统。这与单纯卖一块图形处理器完全不同。AMD正日益努力成为完整的AI基础设施平台,而数字也开始体现出这一点。
Okay, back to AMD. AMD now has exposure across virtually the entire AI ecosystem, which includes GPUs, CPUs, networking, software, and Helios rack-scale systems. This is completely different from simply selling a graphics processing unit.
AMD is increasingly striving to become a complete AI infrastructure platform, and the numbers are starting to show it.
AMD的数据中心业务正在经历爆发式增长。公司上一季度的产品总收入达到115亿美元,增长了50%。但具体看数据中心的收入,达到了67亿美元,同比增长107%。仅数据中心一项现在约占AMD总收入的58%。
AMD's data center business is experiencing explosive growth. The company's total product revenue in the last quarter amounted to $11.5 billion. That was a 50% increase. But look specifically at the revenues of data centers, which reached $6.7 billion.
It has increased by 107% year-on-year. Data centers alone now account for approximately 58% of AMD's total revenue.
我们来看看盈利能力;对我来说,这比总销售额重要得多。该季度数据中心运营利润达到21亿美元,该板块的营业利润率达到31%。一年前,AMD的数据部门实际上还录得运营亏损。尽管这一对比受到8亿美元出口管制成本的影响,但公司并不只是一台创造收入的机器。
我们正在看到它对利润的影响,而这让我想起了一些熟悉的东西。
Let's look at profitability; for me, it's a much more important number than total sales. Data center operating income reached $2.1 billion during the quarter. The operating profit margin for this sector reached 31%.
A year ago, AMD's data division had actually recorded an operating loss. Although the comparison was affected by the cost of export controls amounting to $800 million, the company is not simply a revenue-generating machine.
We are seeing an impact on profits, and this reminds me of something familiar.
当年的Nvidia对比现在的AMD。现在,我们来看看AMD。再次说明,我并不是说AMD在2026年甚至2027年会变成Nvidia在2023年及之后的样子。Nvidia曾经拥有、并且现在仍然拥有AMD所不具备的优势,比如CUDA平台、市场份额、利润率、规模、软件、网络以及庞大的生态系统。
但有一个相似之处,我认为投资者应当密切关注:数据中心增长加速,收入预期爆发,经营杠杆上升,而华尔街不断上调预期。
Nvidia then versus AMD now. Now, let's take a look at AMD. Again, I am not saying that AMD in 2026 or even 2027 will become what Nvidia was in 2023 and beyond. Nvidia had and still has advantages that AMD does not.
Such as the CUDA platform, market share, margins, size, software, networks, and a huge ecosystem. But there is one similarity that I think investors should pay close attention to.
Data center growth accelerates, revenue estimates explode, operational leverage grows, and Wall Street keeps raising expectations.
现在,AMD的数据中心收入正以107%的速度增长,Instinct产量正在爬坡,CPU正在加速,Helios正在启动,大规模云服务的部署正在扩大。问题不是AMD是否会取代Nvidia?
我认为AMD不需要这么做。问题是,AMD能否在快速增长的人工智能计算市场中占据可观的份额?我认为答案完全可能是肯定的。
Now, AMD's data center revenues are growing by 107%, Instinct production is ramping up, CPUs are accelerating, Helios is being activated, and the deployment of massive cloud services is expanding.
The question is not whether AMD will replace Nvidia? I do n't think AMD needs to do that. The question is, can AMD capture a significant share of the rapidly growing artificial intelligence computing market? I think the answer could definitely be yes.
而在这里,我认为AMD的故事变得更有意思了。AMD最近推出了Helios系统。Helios是AMD的服务器级人工智能基础设施解决方案。想想Nvidia做得非常成功的事情。它不再只是销售单个图形处理器,事实上它已越来越多地开始销售集成系统。
AMD正试图做类似的事情。Helios系统将Instinct MI450图形单元、中央处理器、网络和软件整合为一个集成的人工智能系统。
And here I think the AMD story gets more interesting. AMD recently launched the Helios system. Helios is AMD's server-level artificial intelligence infrastructure solution. Think about what Nvidia has done with great success.
It's no longer just about selling individual graphics processing units. In fact, it has increasingly begun selling integrated systems. AMD is trying to do something similar. The Helios system combines Instinct MI450 graphics units, central processing units, networking, and software into an integrated artificial intelligence system.
AMD已经拥有重要的客户承诺。Anthropic与AMD宣布达成协议,将在Helios服务器内部署2吉瓦的Instinct MI450单元。Microsoft扩大了与AMD的合作,在Azure平台上部署Helios和第六代EPYC处理器。
这不再是一款理论上的产品。客户排队下采购订单。云巨头正选择AMD作为另一个关键供应商,这表明在这个领域不止一家公司能够成功。AMD的客户包括Microsoft、Amazon、Meta、Oracle和Alphabet等等。
AMD already has significant customer commitments. Anthropic and AMD have announced an agreement to deploy 2 gigawatts of Instinct MI450 units within Helios servers. Microsoft has expanded its partnership with AMD to deploy Helios and 6th-generation EPYC processors across the Azure platform.
This is no longer a theoretical product. Customers line up to place purchase orders. Cloud giants are choosing AMD as another key supplier, and this shows that more than one company can succeed in this field.
AMD has customers such as Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Oracle, and Alphabet, to name a few.
云巨头正选择AMD作为另一个关键供应商,这表明在这个领域不止一家公司能够成功。AMD的客户包括Microsoft、Amazon、Meta、Oracle和Alphabet等等。
Cloud giants are choosing AMD as another key supplier, and this shows that more than one company can succeed in this field. AMD has customers such as Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Oracle, and Alphabet, to name a few .
随着人工智能方面的支出增长到数千亿美元,即使只占其中一小部分,规模也变得极其庞大。看这里的屏幕,加入我的投资社区的人可以看到,该股获得了71的稳健强度评级。当我们转到盈利标签页时,你可以看到盈利即将爆发。
公司不仅在更快地提高收入,同时还变得更具盈利能力,这是我喜欢看到的。另外,这里是最新的目标价更新,显示最低目标价为每股600美元,最高目标价为710美元。710这个数字意味着较当前水平上涨40%。
我们在这里谈论的是一只我认为将突破千美元大关的股票。所以,说我是AMD的粉丝,是一种过于简单化的说法。
As spending on artificial intelligence grows to hundreds of billions, even a modest share of that market becomes enormous. Looking at the screen here, available to those who join my investment community, you can see that the stock is getting a solid strength rating of 71.
And when we move to the earnings tab, you can see that the earnings are poised to explode. The company is not only increasing its revenues faster, but it has also become more profitable at the same time, which is something I like to see.
Also, here’s a look at the latest price target updates, which show a low target price of $600 per share and a high target price of $710. This figure of 710 represents a 40% increase from current levels.
We are talking here about a stock that I believe will surpass the thousand-dollar mark. So, saying that I am a fan of AMD is an oversimplification.
看这里的屏幕,加入我的投资社区的人可以看到,该股获得了71的稳健强度评级。当我们转到盈利标签页时,你可以看到盈利即将爆发。公司不仅在更快地提高收入,同时还变得更具盈利能力,这是我喜欢看到的。
另外,这里是最新的目标价更新,显示最低目标价为每股600美元,最高目标价为710美元。710这个数字意味着较当前水平上涨40%。我们在这里谈论的是一只我认为将突破千美元大关的股票。
所以,说我是AMD的粉丝,是一种过于简单化的说法。
Looking at the screen here, available to those who join my investment community, you can see that the stock is getting a solid strength rating of 71. And when we move to the earnings tab, you can see that the earnings are poised to explode.
The company is not only increasing its revenues faster , but it has also become more profitable at the same time, which is something I like to see. Also, here’s a look at the latest price target updates, which show a low target price of $600 per share and a high target price of $710.
This figure of 710 represents a 40% increase from current levels. We are talking here about a stock that I believe will surpass the thousand-dollar mark. So , saying that I am a fan of AMD is an oversimplification.
这是我能给出的最简单解释。Nvidia造的是法拉利,AMD造的是迈凯伦。两者都是高性能品牌汽车。
Here's the easiest way I can explain it. Nvidia builds a Ferrari, and AMD builds a McLaren. Both are high- performance branded cars.
现在,我们来比较这两者,因为它们不是可以互换的投资。AMD是Nvidia更直接的竞争对手。你押注的是AI加速器、图形处理器、机架级基础设施、软件、网络以及不断增长的市场份额。
Now, let's compare the two because they are not interchangeable investments . AMD is a more direct competitor to Nvidia. You are betting on AI accelerators, graphics processing units, rack-level infrastructure, software, networks, and increasing market share.
我不认为你非得二选一。我两只都持有,而且我会通过期权合约来增持它们。
I don't think you necessarily have to choose one over the other. I own both of them and I will increase my stake in them by using option contracts.
至于AMD,我正在密切关注“Instinct”处理器的收入。MI450产量的增加会达到预期吗?关于“Helios”,客户是否在大规模使用它?关于中央处理器(CPU),AMD是否在继续获得市场份额?
关于软件,AMD能否继续缩小与CUDA的软件差距?CUDA属于Nvidia。也许最重要的是利润率。因为如果AMD的AI业务扩张,我希望看到它越来越多地体现在利润上,即更高的营业利润率。
我认为AMD几年后的盈利能力,可能与投资者今天看到的、以及分析师明天预期的都大不相同。
As for AMD, I'm keeping an eye on the revenue from "Instinct" processors. Will the increased production of MI450 meet expectations? Regarding " Helios", are customers using it on a large scale ?
Regarding central processing units (CPUs), is AMD continuing to gain market share? Regarding software, can AMD continue to close the software gap with CUDA ? It belongs to Nvidia .
And perhaps most importantly, profit margins. Because if AMD's AI business expands , I want to see that increasingly reflected in profits, with higher operating income margins .
I think AMD’s ability to generate profits several years from now may look very different from what investors see today and what analysts expect tomorrow.
这就是AMD让我感兴趣的地方。这就是Marvell让我感兴趣的地方。因为如果我们等到AMD拿下AI加速器的很大份额,或者Helios完成部署,或者Marvell的定制芯片软件开始产生数百亿美元的收入,而华尔街完全意识到这个机会,那么我们就不会处在早期阶段了。
This is what interests me about AMD. This is what interests me about Marvell. Because if we wait until AMD acquires a large share of AI accelerators, or Helios is deployed, or Marvell's custom chip software starts generating tens of billions in revenue, and Wall Street becomes fully aware of this opportunity, then we will not be in the early stages.
再次说明,我并不指望AMD或Marvell会重演那一幕。那将是一个非常高的假设。
Again, I don't expect AMD or Marvell to repeat that. That would be a very high assumption.
对我来说,有两家公司我密切关注:AMD和Marvell。但它们并不是仅有的两个名字,不过它们肯定是两个主要名字。AMD让我得以接触人工智能领域第二个主要的新兴计算平台。
For me, there are two companies I keep a close eye on: AMD and Marvell. But they are not the only two names, but they are certainly two main names. AMD is giving me exposure to a second major emerging computing platform in the field of artificial intelligence.
不同的业务、不同的风险、不同的机会,但两者都可能受益于同一个巨大的根本性趋势:建设人工智能基础设施。我并不是说它们会成为下一个 Nvidia。我想说的是,Nvidia 已经教会了我们应该关注什么:数据中心收入的巨大增长、利润的快速增长、向一个可瞄准市场的扩张、巨额的客户承诺,以及直接站在一轮巨大资本支出周期前沿的产品。
这些就是我所寻找的特征,而目前,AMD 和 Marvell 是两家符合其中许多标准的公司。
Different businesses, different risks , different opportunities, but both could benefit from the same massive, fundamental trend: building AI infrastructure. I'm not saying they're the next Nvidia.
I would say that Nvidia has taught us what to look for: massive growth in data center revenues, rapid profit growth, expansion into a targetable market , huge customer commitments, and products that stand directly in front of a massive capital expenditure cycle.
These are the characteristics I'm looking for, and currently, AMD and Marvell are two companies that meet many of these criteria.
观察点
这个频道对 $AMD 的历次判断
Mark Roussin, CPA 在这只股票上共 4 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。