$AMD

AMD值得买入;Helios发布与CPU增长将在2至4年内推动每股收益升至25至30美元,足以支撑当前股价。

看涨他说的是几年内
《3 AI Stocks We’re Buying for the Second Half of 2026!!》
Jose Najarro Stocks发布 2026-09-19 · 13 段内容
06:37/ 打开原视频

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13 段内容
6:3710:40

不过,第二只股票是 AMD。目前,该股定价为 560 美元,市值甚至还没达到一万亿美元。我相信它会成为一家万亿美元公司,而我们距离那只有一千亿美元。那里有更多机会。

However, the second stock is AMD. Currently, the stock is priced at $560 with a market capitalization that has not even reached one trillion dollars . I believe it will become a trillion-dollar company, and we are only a hundred billion dollars away from that. There are more opportunities available there.

对我来说,AMD 的故事一直是关于将于今年下半年发布的“Helios”。许多曾对 AMD 悲观的人现在开始对它乐观。这对我来说太疯狂了,不是吗?他们去年一整年都在喊同样的话,不是吗?

从 12 月以来,甚至从 12 月之前就开始了。

For me, the AMD story has always been about "Helios" which will be released in the second half of this year. Many people who were pessimistic about AMD are now starting to be optimistic about it.

This is crazy to me, is n't it? They've been shouting the same thing all last year, haven't they ? Since December , and even since before December.

我为什么对 AMD 感到兴奋?因为 AMD Helios。AMD Helios 将在下半年发布。这将是第一个机架级系统。我对此非常兴奋。

Why am I excited about AMD? Because of AMD Helios. AMD Helios will be released in the second half . This will be the first system on a rack scale. I'm very excited about this.

市盈率非常高,不是吗?50.6,我认为这吓到了一些投资者,但对我来说,增长机会就在那里。你有 Helios。你有目前正经历非常严重短缺的中央处理器(CPU)市场,而 AMD 预计将继续在这一领域获得市场份额。

The price-to-earnings ratio is very high, isn't it? 50.6, and I think that scares some investors, but for me, the growth opportunity is there. You have Helios. You have the central processing unit ( CPU) market, which is currently experiencing a very severe shortage, and AMD is expected to continue to gain market share in this area.

AMD 在 11 月的一次分析师活动上告诉我们,他们预计每股收益至少 20 美元,而自那次活动以来,他们已经大幅提高了所有产品的总可寻址市场。中央处理器(CPU)市场已从 600 亿美元增长到 2200 亿美元,而他们仍然只预期每股收益 20 美元。

这就是市场出错的地方,不是吗?在我看来,他们的每股收益在未来两到四年内将更接近 25 到 30 美元。对我来说,这给出 30 倍的市盈率,这并不疯狂。你说的是 900 美元。这在我看来并不疯狂,但人们会说,“José,你看起来像个疯子。”这完全可以接受。

AMD told us at an analyst event in November that they expected at least $20 in earnings per share, and since that event , they have already significantly increased the total marketable value for all of their products.

The central processing unit (CPU) market has grown from $60 billion to $220 billion, and they are still expecting only $20 in earnings per share. This is where the market goes wrong, isn't it?

Their earnings per share, in my opinion, will be closer to $25 to $30 over the next two to four years . For me, this gives a price-to- earnings ratio of 30, which is not crazy.

You're talking about $900. This doesn't seem crazy to me, but people will say, " José, you look like a madman." This is perfectly acceptable.

现在,对于今年下半年,今年 9 月,当 Helios 的首次公开募股开始时,大约 130 亿美元。这大约是 40% 的同比增长。现在,增长预计在那之后会加速,不是吗?2026 年 12 月,市场预计将达到大约 161 亿美元。

这大约是 57% 的同比增长。我认为接下来的故事将是竞争对手的终局。从 2026 年 12 月开始,你将看到巨大的收入增长。

Now, for the second half of this year, September of this year, when Helios' initial public offering begins, with approximately $13 billion. This is approximately 40% year-on-year growth.

Now, growth is expected to accelerate after that, is n't it? In December 2026, the market is expected to reach approximately $16.1 billion. This is approximately 57% year-on-year growth.

I think the story that follows will be the endgame for the competitors. You will see tremendous revenue growth starting from December 2026.

如果“Helios”系统发布,但请记住它是一个非常庞大的系统。因此,一路上可能会有一些障碍,其中任何一个都可能导致股价大幅下跌。只要他们能够解决任何问题,我相信任何这样的下跌都将是巨大的买入机会。

If the "Helios" system is released, but remember that it is a very large system . Therefore, there may be some obstacles along the way, any of which could cause a significant drop in the share price.

As long as they are able to fix any problems, I believe any such downturn would be a tremendous buying opportunity .

但两年前 Nvidia 的情况我们都看到了。每次他们推出新平台,都会出现一些问题,因为他们在创新、在尝试新东西。肯定会有一些失误。在这些失误期间,市场上的悲观者会很高兴。他们喜欢发视频,喜欢发文章,喜欢发推文说:“哈哈,看吧,这就是 AI 故事的终结。”

到目前为止,所有这些推文和视频对投资者来说都是绝佳的买入机会。我认为,如果出现这类问题——我不是说它们已经存在——投资者也应该始终意识到潜在风险。在我看来,这些都会是买入机会。

But we saw what happened with Nvidia two years ago. Every time they launch a new platform, some errors appear because they are innovating and experimenting with new things. There will definitely be some mistakes.

During those mistakes, the pessimists in the market are delighted . They like to post videos. They like to publish articles. They like to post tweets and say, " Haha, look, this is the end of the AI story ."

All those tweets and videos so far have been great buying opportunities for investors. I think that if any such problems arise , I'm not saying they exist, but investors should always be aware of the potential risks.

Those, in my opinion, will be buying opportunities.

我要第一个在这里说:“我认为这不值一提。”人工智能的故事仍在继续,并正在取得非凡的成功。正如我所说,不是字面意义上的。

And I will be the first to say here: "I think this is nothing worth mentioning." The story of artificial intelligence continues and is achieving remarkable success. As I said, not in the literal sense.

在最新的财报中,Lisa Su 提到数据中心 AI 方面,MI250 系列部署的数量和规模正在让公司为下半年的显著增长做好准备,而这正是本期视频关注的重点,因为增长将加速进入 2027 年。

Now, Lisa Su mentioned in the latest earnings report, regarding AI in data centers, that the number and scale of MI250 series deployments are positioning the company for significant growth in the second half of the year , which is exactly what we're focusing on in this video as growth accelerates into 2027.

也许我应该做一期视频,表达我对 2027 年股票的兴奋之情,我相信我会谈到 Nvidia、AMD,也许还有我的第三只股票。

Perhaps I should make a video expressing my excitement for stocks in 2027, and I'm sure I'll talk about Nvidia, AMD, and maybe my third stock.

在服务器 CPU 方面,凭借非常强劲的客户需求和改善的供应,我们现在预计 2026 年下半年服务器收入将同比增长超过 80%。然后给我们一些 2027 年的数字,但我们不是为 2027 年来的。我们是为 2026 年来的。

For server CPUs, with very strong customer demand and improved supply, we now expect server revenue to grow by more than 80% year-over-year in the second half of 2026. Then give us some numbers for 2027, but we're not here for 2027. We're here for 2026.

好。现在,我们拿到的第二条来自 AMD 的文字讲的是同一件事。Lisa Su 说:“Helios 系统现已投产,首批出货将在本季度晚些时候开始,并在第四季度及进入 2027 年期间逐步放量,以满足非常强劲的客户需求。”

所以,根据我们刚才讨论的一切,AMD 向我们保证,我们应该对今年下半年感到非常兴奋。

Okay. Now, the second text we have from AMD is about the same event. Lisa Su says: "The Helios system is now in production, with initial shipments starting later this quarter , ramping up through the fourth quarter and into 2027 to meet very strong customer demand."

So, based on everything we've just discussed, AMD has assured us that we should be really excited about the second half of this year.

观察点

每股收益相对分析师预期的表现
接近或超过25至30美元
未来两到四年财报
若实现则支撑看涨逻辑;若每股收益停滞在20美元附近则削弱该逻辑

这个频道对 $AMD 的历次判断

Jose Najarro Stocks 在这只股票上共 4 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

2026-09-19看涨本条
不过,第二只股票是 AMD。目前,该股定价为 560 美元,市值甚至还没达到一万亿美元。我相信它会成为一家万亿美元公司,而我们距离那只有一千亿美元。那里有更多机会。
2026-09-15看涨
我想更仔细看看的第二只股票是 AMD。
原话 09:07 ›
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