AMD具备强劲的竞争定位与增长潜力，但短期内已处于超买状态。

beyond just Meta and AMD stocks, which performed amazingly today. AMD's stock rose 9.95% today, officially bringing its market capitalization to $1 trillion.

We had predicted this stock when its price was $452, and we told the course members that the stock was about to rise. We did not expect it to reach this height so quickly.

Let's delve deeper into companies like AMD and Intel, For example, our latest Robin chip has ten times the bandwidth capabilities compared to the H100 chip that Nvidia used.

Many people overlook the fact that Nvidia, despite its primary focus on graphics processing units (GPUs) , expects to dominate the CPU market in favor of one or more specialized companies like AMD,

This order alone is equivalent to three-quarters of AMD's current total profits .

If Nvidia is forecasting—how would I put it?— $20 billion in CPU sales by the end of 2026, it's worth noting that AMD's total sales over three months were around $11.5 billion.

So, Nvidia is forecasting roughly six months' worth of sales in a sector where it generated virtually no revenue a year ago, making AMD—or Nvidia is a true competitor to AMD in the CPU market .

I don't mean to belittle AMD; I believe they have promising opportunities. Just look at the benchmark results . Their Helios system, compared to Vera Rubin, boasts 50% more high-bandwidth memory, 50% more scalable bandwidth, and 10-15 % faster processing speeds.

So, Helios is a great product compared to Vera Rubin, especially given the current high demand for these CPUs .

They have a high-quality product, and in some benchmarks, AMD outperforms Nvidia's GPUs. The fifth-generation Vera Turin chip is expected to capture around 50% of the total CPU market in data centers.

Not as much is said about ARM compared to AMD. AMD has a market capitalization of around $344 billion and is also a strong competitor.

The more Nvidia and Apple focus on competing with AMD in the processor market, the more intense the competition becomes. AMD is focusing on x86 technology, the same technology as Intel, whose stock rose 14% today and then 12% by the end of the day.

Its current goal is to reach 50% of AMD's processor market share by 2030, but it's currently below that. By a small margin , at around 30%.

However, Nvidia anticipates significant revenue growth , with AMD projecting a 72% increase in revenue between now and next year, reaching $88 billion annually.

If we compare this annual figure to Nvidia's data center revenue alone, we find that Nvidia generates the equivalent of AMD's entire revenue in a single quarter.

Nvidia is five times larger than AMD in terms of market capitalization . but this is why people are asking: if the next stage is CPUs, and Nvidia is valued at $5 trillion , what's stopping AMD from rising to the same level?

So, we have AMD, Intel, ARM, Apple, and of course, Meta, which is leading this massive evolution today.

AMD has commitments that extend from now until the end of 2031 and beyond. Most of these commitments are already publicly announced . AMD's commitments are around $30 billion, and these are commitments to buy silicon chips, substrates, and components from third parties.

That means Nvidia has 11 times the guaranteed supply, which is five times larger.

Therefore, memory prices are still rising. That's why AMD and Nvidia are racing to acquire as much computing power as possible right now. But Nvidia is already doing that. You know, they're getting twice as much as AMD, probably because they have more money to pay; they can write bigger checks.

I think that's an interesting comparison, and I also think it's interesting to look at the companies' actual income statements to see their profit margins and growth. AMD's profit margins have increased significantly, going from 36% or 39.8% to 53.7%. That's really good.

But it's worth noting that Nvidia's gross revenue is 75%, while AMD's net revenue was 17.2% after a loss. Nvidia's net revenue is 63%.

AMD's operating income in three months was only $2 billion. But if we look at the income statement, we see that the income Nvidia's operating income is $63 billion. That's 30 times AMD's quarterly operating income.

I'm not saying this to suggest Nvidia is better, but rather to explain why the market believes AMD has significant growth potential. Nvidia's valuation is currently very low , a fraction of AMD's.

AMD's stock is currently trading at its recent high with a price-to-earnings ratio of 1.5 to 1.6, while Nvidia's is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio closer to 1 or 0.7.

Is it possible, then, that Nvidia's stock will catch up with AMD's, or that AMD's growth will slow? Perhaps. But I don't expect it, and I wouldn't bet on a price drop. The reason is that we're currently experiencing overbought conditions, which might be desirable.

I'm not saying it's time to sell, and I wouldn't bet on a price drop.

But if we look at the daily chart, we see that the stock AMD is currently overbought at around 73 on the Relative Strength Index (RSI). On a weekly basis, we just broke out of 70 to 70.1.

So, it's pretty high. What has really been outperforming is AMD and Dell.

AMD doesn't need to do this because it can manufacture with Intel or Taiwan Semiconductor. The advantage of this is that AMD will likely always have a higher profit margin than Intel. This is something worth considering.

The competition between AMD and ARM will be fierce over the x86 architecture, as ARM is the preferred choice for Apple and Nvidia, and will likely remain so, as they strive to dominate the CPU market.

Currently, the real competition is between AMD and Intel, and I believe this is the reason for their remarkable success. AMD also has promising partnerships. For example, AMD offered purchase options, known among companies as "escrow bonds," to Meta and OpenAI.

This means that, with AMD's stock skyrocketing, Meta will likely have to profit from its purchase options, which allow it to buy AMD shares for one cent per share.

It can exercise this right anytime between October 5, 2030 (OpenAI), now and October 5, 2030 (Meta), and until February 23, 2031 (OpenAI).

So, Lisa Su is approaching companies like Meta and OpenAI, asking, "Can you buy our six gigawatts of chips?" In return, we will give you shares.

This devalues the stock, but it's fair to say it's a different form of circular financing than what Nvidia does, which invests directly in companies with excess cash flow—far greater than AMD's—and then creates demand as a result.

AMD can't do that; they simply don't have those assets. If you look at their free cash flow, it's only $4 billion in six months. That means Nvidia's cash flow is 17.5 times richer.

So, AMD is saying, "We'll give you some of our stock instead." We will not be able to provide any service to you; we will provide our services to you in a completely different way.

"Okay, that's fine. It's true that AMD doesn't have Nvidia's profit margins, but it's striving to reach them. That's the point. We've already touched on those profit margins, where it's 62% net compared to AMD's 17%. That's the growth side.

Some people think Nvidia is completely superior in terms of profit margins and capabilities. But they forget that Nvidia has an entire CPU business that started from scratch to compete with AMD.

AMD is facing stiff competition for these units, and its partner Jensen doesn't want Lisa to outshine him. I understand they're related, which is the weirdest part. But the competition is fierce.

It's really interesting to watch, but AMD will be one of the biggest beneficiaries of increased profit margins. And as you can see, that's true. Look at this: AMD's Instinct product, their graphics processor, had higher sales the previous year, or a greater mix of other products, which led to increased data center revenue, and therefore a product mix that was favorable for profit margins.

In other words, their profit margins increased because of these products, just like the increased data center sales. It's obvious that you'd make more money selling your products to data centers than selling them to consumers. That's just common sense.

AMD also acquired ZT Group, which helps provide general-purpose computing infrastructure for hyperscale computing companies. In other words, we're increasing our appeal to these data centers because the profit margins are good.

There doesn't have to be just one winner. This is a big win for AMD.

I have a bit of a concern, though; I have to For transparency, I'm not adding to AMD stock at this point. Things might stay as they are. I'm feeling a bit overly optimistic right now.

I think there are other opportunities. There are plenty of them, whether it's Apple, whose prices are a bit high.

Okay, if we look at AMD and some of these other stocks now. AMD is priced at $747, meaning it's currently trading at 82x. The growth rate is 82 divided by 4.55, which is roughly 1.5x.

That's what we mentioned earlier. However, there's still room for growth. Its profit margins aren't as good as Nvidia's, so we should expect a slightly lower rise based on its price-to-growth ratio (PEG), but that still justifies a share price of around $944.

You see, many stocks have doubled in value, like Nvidia, and I think AMD will easily double as well. In my opinion, AMD is still up by 50%. Oh, it has a lot of momentum right now.

AMD's Venice processor, one of their latest offerings, is expected to offer 2.8 times the power efficiency per watt compared to the Vera processor.

We're still in the early stages for AMD, although I think they're overbought in the short term.

I feel like AMD and Nvidia are the winners right now, but that's amazing.

our long talk about AMD and its agents.