AMD 的增长受 CPU 需求扩张与 Helios 芯片支撑，预计到 2028 年每股收益将超过 20 美元。

AMD has just become a trillion-dollar company, and in today's episode, Neo and I will discuss what the market takes into account. More importantly, what are some things investors should be watching closely, given that this stock has seen a massive valuation explosion?

We will be discussing Advanced Micro Devices, also known as AMD. AMD is now valued at over eight trillion dollars. The stock has risen by 178.4% since the beginning of the year .

It has been an incredible journey for AMD, but especially for the company's shareholders.

So, we'll discuss the positive factors that propelled AMD towards a trillion- dollar valuation, and then we'll talk about what investors should be watching. Because yes, it is amazing to see this company grow so much in such a short period, but of course it also has to deliver results.

Let's start with the main reason why we see AMD at the trillion-dollar level now.

Yes, we will discuss two main points, but I think the reason that is really driving it now, as we can see from the graph I showed earlier, is the massive explosion over the past few weeks of Meta's AI tool called Muse, which is their AI proxies.

One of the things that has been discussed in many chapters by AMD and various experts is that AI agents are products that ultimately use a lot of tools on your PC, virtual machines, or in the cloud.

Wherever they are located, these tools you use are primarily dependent on the processor (CPU).

Now, in this context, isn't that so ? The platform itself, or this AI agent, had to use different software solutions , open various websites, all of which consumed computing power from the central processing unit (CPU).

Now if you start thinking about agents, where everyone uses some form of AI agent over and over again, and multiple agents at the same time, the demand for CPUs will grow enormously.

AMD is also a prime example of how huge this market is. I remember in November 2025, and it's crazy that this was more than a year ago, they talked on Analysts and Investors Day about the CPU market reaching $60 billion .

I think that three months later, when they announced their first-quarter earnings, they actually said, "You know what? It's actually much bigger than that because of the agent-based tools ."

When that happened, AMD said, "You know what? The $60 billion market we referred to, we're going to actually double it. We believe it will reach $120 billion." Then after a few more months, right?

We got to the second quarter earnings , and I think Lisa Su stepped up again and said, "You know what ? The $120 billion market we referred to , we actually expect to be much bigger than that.

We're raising it to $220 billion instead ." That was before this news.

So, I wonder if this initial enthusiasm stemmed from the fact that we already knew the market for AI CPUs was growing exponentially. And now you're telling me that everyone has the opportunity to use Muse.

It is a platform coming from Meta Platforms, a company that has a great distribution of AI proxies. So, if the market was $220 billion before many people had the chance to do it, I think the market is pricing in that now , wondering what the situation will be in the coming earnings when Lisa Su gives us any revenue forecasts or a completely new market size for the CPU space.

Because if this is the worst AI agent we'll ever get , then it's the absolute worst, right, Neil? Things will only get better from here. And we will most likely end up using it for many other tasks.

So I think if there is one reason for AMD's current rise, it is that the market is really enjoying the CPU sector right now .

So, I think the story of the processors is the most important right now, but maybe we can talk about some other risks later, Neil. Do you have any thoughts on that first point?

And perhaps I should turn to you, Neil, if you think there is a second reason why the market was really impressed with AMD last year.

Yes, lately the story has definitely become more about central processing units (CPUs) . Although we have seen over the past two quarters or so, Intel and AMD have achieved very good numbers with regard to server processors and the like.

Now, I mean, they're hinting at a one-to-one ratio for the future between graphics processing units (GPUs) and central processing units (CPUs), right? If we are heading in this direction, we know how huge the graphics processing unit market is today.

So, can you imagine if the central processing unit (CPU) market would experience the same exponential growth? AMD has a very good position in the central processing unit (CPU) sector.

But as we can see on screen now, the market already expects AMD's revenue growth to start accelerating. We expect growth of 46.8% in fiscal year 26, followed by a strong acceleration in growth of 73.1% to more than $88 billion in revenue in fiscal year 27.

This is due to their MI400 series, or their "Helios" chip, which is expected to make this business more competitive and a bigger competitor to Nvidia.

As for the current fiscal year 2028 outlook, it's not just about AMD, but many other companies as well. I think analysts are still not 100% sure what will happen in fiscal year 2028.

So, at the moment, we are seeing a significant slowdown in growth, but it is still expected to grow by 37.7% to more than $121 billion .

The thing about AMD is yes, the stock has risen a lot, but the real growth story is about to begin. So, when we talk about a stock that is priced very precisely or where much of its future story has already been absorbed, we might start to see this as an example.

I'm not saying it's exactly that , but it's like an example where the market looks far ahead and says: Well , AMD, we now see them as very big competitors to Nvidia.

At the beginning of the year, AMD was not valued at a trillion dollars , it was much less than that , but we are seeing growth start to emerge time after time. AMD itself, right?

On their investor day at the end of 2025, they set a three- to five-year earnings per share target that would exceed, or they expected to exceed, $20 per share. It's not 3 to 5 years starting at the end of 2025, it could be 2028. It could be 2030.

So, when you look at futures price multiples, or price-to-earnings ratios in this case, you're looking at $20 or above, and we know Lisa Su's track record at AMD; If they say it will exceed $20, you can be sure that $20 is the minimum here.

So, if you want to use a multiplier for futures earnings , then yes, you are trading at around 30 times. But currently, if we look at the traditional forward price-to- earnings ratio, we are looking at something closer to 56.2 times, and I think that is where investors should start now, not by lowering expectations, but by being realistic .

Okay . Yes, I agree with you, Neil. First, I strongly believe that AMD will reach that $20 , and at least $20 in earnings per share by 2028. As I mentioned , Lisa Su is a bit more conservative , so when she tells me 3 to 5 years , I'd expect it closer to 3 years, and she gave us that in 2025, so we're getting to 2028.

Now, yes, looking at the next 24 months, I would say the forward price-to-earnings ratio is closer to that 30, as you mentioned, Neil. But the ironic part is that this figure was given to us when the total tolerable market (TAM) for CPUs was 60 billion.

As you mentioned, Neil, isn't that right? Lisa Su has already told us that exceeding that number is now a possibility with the latest figures. And I think that's what the market is currently excited about.

Lisa Su has already told us that the performance is exceeding expectations. Now, what is that actual number? Will we reach $20 per share much faster? This is where expectations must meet actual results.

I'm a long- term investor in AMD, and I'm sure you are too, Neil. I know that you have been following it and have owned shares in it for some time now as well.

To me, the CPU story is fascinating, but I wouldn't expect to see hugely strong results in upcoming earnings just because of this new news. The main reason is something we talked about a little before we started recording, which is that building a supply chain takes time.

It's not simply: we have huge demand, so let's start selling products tomorrow.

Lisa Su has already mentioned that the supply chain is under pressure. Building supply takes time , and in the current market you are not only competing for the supply of CPUs, but also for the supply of GPUs that are being built, and all these memory modules, and other types of chips.

TSMC and all these factories are operating at full capacity. The ability to build up supply in a short time is not impossible, but it is something investors should consider before saying, "I'm buying AMD stock now because I expect the news will give us great results in the processor field within 3 months ."

It's not impossible, but I don't think it will be anything dramatic because building these products takes time.

And going back to AMD Helios, I think that's what excites me the most, Neil. We know that the end of this quarter, and I think they mentioned the end of September, is when many of the MI450 shipments will start coming out.

We've started to see them get a lot of contracts; they've signed with Anthropic, OpenAI, Meta Platforms, and some other big players as well. But these three names alone will buy a good quantity of graphics processing units from them.

I am very excited to see the language and comments Lisa Su will have about the market and where we are headed. But I still have the impression that I don't expect a huge improvement in this quarter. What about you, Neo ?

Yes, if we look at what the analysts are predicting, you are right. For the next quarter, a slowdown in growth can be observed . But again, they might exceed expectations. Currently, analysts expect the next quarter to represent revenue growth of approximately 40.5% year-on-year.

Then in the next quarter and beyond, we see a strong acceleration. Why? Because of Helios, because that is when production will increase and they will start to generate a lot of additional revenue.

But yes, to answer your question, they might surprise the market. Average selling prices may have increased. We know that they have stated their expectations of price increases due to the rising memory prices that everyone is experiencing.

Although I don't think that will affect the next quarter at all . But if the market is currently expecting AMD to grow by 40.5% again , then in terms of price, I expect them to exceed market expectations.

I expect them to surpass it, perhaps not by a large margin.

In fact, perhaps we can take a look at what they have done over the past two quarters. In the last quarter, they exceeded expectations by only 2%, and in the quarter before that by 3.4%.

So, they might be able to surpass it again by about 2 or 3% . Then the question will arise: Will that be enough? Will they raise their financial guidelines?

I think if they could provide some supplies, that would be great. Or, as I mentioned, if they were able to increase the average selling prices of some of these processors, that could be an improvement in revenues and profit margins.

We'll have to see how Lisa Sue handles this, especially if the demand is as crazy as it is now.

There is one other small risk that I would like investors to consider, and just because we are talking about company risks does not mean that we expect them to decrease. It's always great to understand both sides.

This will be the first time AMD has introduced a complete cabinet-level system with a Helios rack. A fully integrated system at the cabinet level is a very impressive product, and one that is difficult to implement.

I would say, with regard to AMD , be prepared for a certain type of news and the like that circulates about the possibility of some delay or obstacle in this matter. Not necessarily a delay as Lisa Su mentioned, but a delay in installation because something may have appeared incorrectly.

It's not a shipping delay, but a delay in installation, which is a slightly different matter. So, be prepared for that. I think most investors should realize that this represents a risk.

Personally, I don't necessarily see any of that as a factor that undermines the hypothesis, but rather as simply adding to the volatility in the market.

Yes, in addition they have the advantage of not being the first to introduce such a solution to the market, so they can look at what happened with Nvidia and make sure it does n't happen with them, and thus they can move faster.

Another thing I want to mention is that, given that the stock price is above $600 , we have seen that they have strategic partnerships, have n't we? With Meta, and with OpenAI.

Both of them, I think Meta will get around 160 million shares if the stock is above $600, but that's not the only thing that matters. Yes, the stock is now above $600, but that doesn't mean Meta gets to buy 160 million shares for a cent or so, which dilutes the stock, but they still have to deploy the equivalent of 6 gigawatts of computing power.

So, 6 gigawatts translated into revenue means tens of billions of dollars. Maybe even more, isn't that right? Perhaps much more in AMD's revenue.

So, yes, right now you'll probably see a lot of headlines saying "Oh, maybe Meta might get 8 or 9% from AMD." But no, they will only get it after achieving a few key milestones.

I think the full package requires a few gigawatts, yes, the stock price is above $600, but also the deployment of 6 gigawatts of computing power. And so far, we are very far from that 6 gigawatts. And of course, there's the OpenAI side as well.

Yes, Neil, one last question before we end this episode. Now that the stock has reached 600, do you think this is prompting Meta to think, " Actually, maybe

I mean, I don't think AMD has 6 gigawatts of computing capacity to offer Meta today, do they? Even if Meta went to Lisa Su and said, "Look, do you currently have 6 gigawatts of graphics processing units (GPUs)?"

I think she will say, "No." Because if they had it, revenue projections would be much higher than they are now. So, they will have to wait.

I mean, they can get to the first few chips faster, right? I think they can achieve their 1 GW and 2 GW targets more quickly.

Therefore, I believe it is in the best interest of both companies to move as quickly as possible. Hey guys, tell us in the comments below what you think about AMD right now, with its stock price at over $600 and a market capitalization exceeding $1 trillion.

What are some of the concerns you might have at the moment? Do you think these concerns are short-term or long-term?