亚马逊在每股200美元时值得买入，保守假设5年EPS增长16.1%、市盈率27倍，可带来19.3%的复合回报和2.4倍资金增长。
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亚马逊，这也是一个非常大的仓位。现在，当我们看这三个最大的持仓时，我只想向你们展示它们之间的差距有多小。谷歌占13.8%，万事达卡占13.3%，亚马逊占12.8%。所以它们几乎是等权重的，然后无论它们朝哪个方向交易，无论哪一个表现好一周或一个月，那一个就会跃居首位。到目前为止，谷歌已经保持了相当长一段时间，但亚马逊最近一直在上升。亚马逊是一个191,000美元的仓位，其中67,000美元是收益。现在，当我看亚马逊时，这只股票的买入目标价是每股200美元。如果亚马逊先达到200美元，那么这家公司将获得那10,000美元。
Amazon, which is also a very big position. Now, when we look at these top three positions, I just want to show you how close together they are. Google's 13.8%, Mastercard's 13.3, and Amazon's 12.8. So they're almost evenly weighted and then whatever direction they trade, whatever one has a good week or a good month, that one will leaprog to the top place position. So far, Google has held its own for quite some time, but Amazon has been working its way up more recently. Amazon is a $191,000 position, $67,000 of that being gains. Now, when I look at Amazon, the buyin target for this one is at $200 per share. If Amazon reaches $200 first, then this company's getting the $10,000.
当我们看这些假设时，我认为它们有些保守。我们假设亚马逊未来5年每股收益增长16.1%。这是快速的每股收益增长。但请记住，这是亚马逊。他们的每股收益增长得更快。他们有巨大的经营杠杆。我相信他们比其他我们考虑的公司更处于增长阶段。我相信，对于一家增长如此之快、每股收益增长如此之快的公司，合适的每股收益倍数大约是27。然后当我们结合200美元的买入价来看，我们将在未来五年获得19.3%的复合增长率。如果这种情况发生，如果亚马逊真的跌到每股200美元，我投入10,000美元，按照这些假设，这笔钱将在未来五年内增长约2.4倍。所以，这将是可能的最佳回报之一。
And when we look at the assumptions that I believe are somewhat conservative. We have Amazon over the next 5 years growing at 16.1% earnings per share. That's fast earnings per share growth. But remember this is Amazon. They've grown their EPS much faster. They have a tremendous amount of operating leverage. I believe they're in more of a growth stage than the other companies that were considering care. I believe that the appropriate EPS multiple for company growing this fast and EPS this fast is around 27. And then when we look at that with the buyin price at $200, we'd get a 19.3% compounded rate of growth over the next five years. If this scenario plays out, if Amazon really traded down to $200 per share and I put $10,000 in with these assumptions, that money would around 2.4x over the next 5 years. So, it would be amongst one of the best returns possible.
如果亚马逊先达到200美元，那么这家公司将获得那10,000美元。
If Amazon reaches $200 first, then this company's getting the $10,000.
他说在等什么
他自己说在等的东西，一段话一条记录。同一件事说过几次就出现几次，我们不合并，也不判断它有没有兑现。
这个频道对 $AMZN 的历次判断
Joseph Carlson After Hours 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。