亚马逊的AI驱动增长证明了其高额支出和债务的合理性，但负自由现金流和不断上升的杠杆使得看涨和看跌立场都合理。
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Baupost将其亚马逊持仓增加了20%，该持仓目前位于其投资组合的顶部，占比达16%。因此，它在该头号位置上表现强劲。
Baupost added 20% to their Amazon stake, which is right at the top of their portfolio, now occupying 16%. So, it is ripping clear in that number one spot.
但有趣的是，本季度我还想指出，我们上季度提到的买入亚马逊的Bill Ackman，实际上已经减持了。他将其亚马逊持仓减少了25%。
But, interestingly this quarter, I also want to point out that Bill Ackman, who we spoke about last quarter for buying Amazon, well, he's actually pulled back. He's reduced his Amazon stake by 25%.
所以，信号令人困惑。到底发生了什么？一个在买，一个在卖。嗯，事实是他们可能都是对的。
So, confusing signals. What the hell is going on? One buying, one selling. Well, the truth is they both might be right.
所以，记得二月份市场对约2000亿美元的2026年资本支出计划感到恐慌。该股在一周内下跌了约18%。然后，快进到七月份的Q2业绩，亚马逊并没有缩减支出。实际上，由于AWS需求增加，他们再次将其提高到2200亿美元。
So, remember back in February the market panicked over roughly 200 billion of planned 2026 CapEx. The stock dropped like 18% in a week. Then, fast forward to their Q2 results in July, Amazon didn't back off the spending. In fact, they raised it again to 220 billion off the back of increased AWS demand.
但这次市场没有恐慌。该股在财报公布后实际上上涨了约9%，因为AWS增长加速至37%，这是自2021年以来最快的增速。
But, this time the market didn't panic. The stock actually jumped about 9% on the report because AWS growth accelerated to 37%, the fastest pace since 2021.
而且，合同化的未来业务积压也膨胀至4960亿美元。所以，AI故事的需求侧现在正在他们的数字中显现。不仅仅是支出侧。
And the backlog of contracted future business also swelled to 496 billion. So, the demand side of the AI story is showing up in their numbers now. It's not just the spending side.
正因为如此，该股此后绝对飙升。但当然，这里的权衡是自由现金流现在已经真正转为负值。Simply Wall Street显示过去十二个月为-116亿美元。
And because of that, the stock has absolutely ripped since. But, of course, the trade-off here is that free cash flow has now gone properly negative. Simply Wall Street has it at -11.6 billion over the trailing 12 months.
而且亚马逊越来越多地利用债务市场来资助其正在进行的这一大规模投资阶段，包括本季度新发行的250亿美元债券。所以，你可以看到任何一方的论点，而两位投资者都没有错。
And Amazon is increasingly tapping the debt markets to fund this big investment phase that it's going through, including a fresh 25 billion-dollar bond raise this quarter. So, you can see an argument either way here without either investor being wrong.
Kliman可能看到的是37%的AWS增长、不断膨胀的积压订单，以及Simply Wall Street的贴现现金流模型，该模型显示该股被低估近39%。
Kliman may be looking at 37% AWS growth, a swelling backlog, and Simply Wall Street's discounted cash flow model, which has the stock nearly 39% undervalued.
他可能会看着这些数据决定：“你知道吗？增长比他们承担的债务更能证明其合理性。”而Ackman，他可能看到的是负自由现金流和不断上升的杠杆，并决定在经历了这一波大幅上涨之后，是否更倾向于锁定利润。
And he might be looking at that deciding, "You know what? The growth more than justifies the debt they're taking on." Whereas Ackman, he might be looking at the negative free cash flow and the rising leverage and deciding whether he'd prefer to just lock in profits after this massive run that they've been on.
所以，你可以从任何一方看待它。老实说，两种解读都不无道理。
So, you can see it either way. Honestly, neither read is unreasonable.
所以，这就是亚马逊的持仓情况。
So, that's the Amazon stake.
他说在等什么
他自己说在等的东西，一段话一条记录。同一件事说过几次就出现几次，我们不合并，也不判断它有没有兑现。
这个频道对 $AMZN 的历次判断
New Money 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。