尽管基本面强劲，Aon的高负债水平使其缺乏吸引力。
逐段跳播
Aon的股价下跌了20%，而
Aon's stock fell by 20%, while
最后，这家公司你也许听得最少，除非你在金融和保险行业工作，但它可能是最有趣的，那就是Aeon。它目前比52周低点高出不到1%，下跌了约23%。
Finally, the company you may have heard of the least unless you work in the world of finance and insurance, but which may be the most interesting, is Aeon. It is sitting less than 1% above its 52- week low, down about 23%.
那么，Aeon到底是做什么的？很简单。它是风险的中间人。当一家巨型企业需要保险，或者需要员工健康和养老金计划方面的协助时，Aeon就是那位把所有事情安排妥当并收取佣金的专家顾问。
换句话说，他们就是企业的销售代表。但他们坐在那里说自己在管理风险。她已经有庞大的业务板块。一块是保险，另一块是员工福利和退休。而美妙之处就在这里。Aeon本身并不承担保险风险。它只收取提供建议的费用。换句话说，就是销售。
So, what does Aeon actually do ? Well, it's very simple. It is the intermediary for risks. When a giant corporation needs insurance or assistance with employee health and pension plans, Aeon is the expert consultant who arranges it all and gets a commission.
In other words, they are their sales representatives. But they sit there and say they are managing the risks. She already has large arms. One for insurance and another for employee benefits and retirement.
And here lies the beauty. " Ion" does not bear the insurance risks itself. She only charges for providing advice. In other words, for sale.
那么股价为什么下跌？原因是市场对增长放缓的担忧。几年来，保险价格一直在大幅上涨。Aon收取佣金。因此，当价格上涨时，Aon的费用也随之上涨。简单说，这就是轻松赚钱。但那些价格停止了上涨。
这种轻松的激励已经消退。Aon的增长略有放缓。没有什么可担心的。但华尔街讨厌不确定性。仅仅是增长放缓，就足以让股价下跌。
So why did the stock price drop? Well, the reason is market concern about slowing growth. For a few years, insurance prices have been rising sharply. Aon receives a commission.
Therefore, when prices rise, Aon's fees rise with them. Simply put, it's easy money. But those prices stopped rising. This easy incentive has faded away. Aon's growth has slowed slightly.
There is nothing to worry about . But Wall Street hates uncertainty. A slowdown in growth was all it took to lower the stock price.
现在，来看乐观的观点。首先，这是一家拥有惊人客户忠诚度的公司。巨型企业很少更换它们的保险经纪，因为Aon对它们的风险了如指掌，所以客户会留存多年，为Aon带来可预测的经常性收入。
And now , here's the optimistic viewpoint. Firstly, it is a company with incredible customer loyalty. Giant companies rarely dispense with their insurance broker because Aon knows all about their risks, so customers stay for years , giving Aon predictable recurring revenue .
其次，世界正一天天变得更加复杂。网络攻击、气候、多变的天气、新法规，还有人工智能。而每一种新风险都意味着Aon有更多的工作，它甚至在投资于AI驱动的分析，以提供更明智的建议并赢得更多业务。
Secondly, the world is becoming more complicated day by day. Cyberattacks, climate, volatile weather, new regulations, and artificial intelligence. And every new risk means more work for Aon, which is even investing in AI-powered analytics to provide smarter advice and win more business.
第三，即便在上个季度，其基础可持续增长也达到了5%。它的利润率有所扩大，并且仅在一个季度内就通过股票回购向股东分配了6亿美元。这是一家公司实现安静、累积式增长的经典配方。
Third, even in the last quarter, its underlying sustainable growth reached 5%. Its profit margins have expanded, and it distributed $600 million to shareholders in share buybacks in just one quarter.
The classic recipe for a company that achieves quiet, cumulative growth .
当然，还有悲观的观点。随着保费支付消退，Aon必须更加努力才能增长。它上个季度报告的增长似乎只有2%，尽管这主要是由于出售了一家子公司，而非真正的疲软。
And of course, there is the pessimistic viewpoint. With insurance premium payments fading , Aon has to work harder to grow. Its reported growth appeared to be only 2% in the last quarter, although this was mainly due to the sale of a subsidiary, rather than a real weakness.
它还进行了一笔重大收购，而这笔收购仍有待证明其价值，并且它背负着大量债务，约150亿美元，这限制了它的灵活性。
It has also made a major acquisition that it still has to prove worthwhile, and it carries a large amount of debt, around $15 billion , which limits its flexibility.
那么，真正的问题是：一旦有利的、轻松的风完全消失，Aon还能继续它的累积式增长吗？各位，Aon是一家600亿美元的公司。现在，这是我不喜欢的地方。这家机构的估值为1020亿美元。
这意味着420亿美元的债务，而它们去年只产生了32亿美元的自由现金流，总计29亿美元。
So, the real question is: Can Aon continue its cumulative growth once the favorable, easy winds have completely disappeared? Guys, Aon is a $60 billion company. Now, here's what I don't like.
The value of the organization is $102 billion. This means $42 billion in debt, and they generated only $3.2 billion in free cash flow last year, and $2.9 billion in total.
这不是一家保险公司。这是一家经纪公司，所以它像任何其他普通公司一样运营。对一家普通公司来说，这是非常庞大的债务。
This is not an insurance company. This is a brokerage firm, so it operates like any other regular company. This is a very large amount of debt for an average company.
是的，它们的资本回报率不错，去年为14%，过去五年年均24%，收购很少，利润率不断增长，过去十年达到16.5%，过去五年为18%，去年为22%。然而，这个债务水平非常非常高。
Yes, they have good returns on capital, 14% last year, and 24% annually over the past five years, with few acquisitions, and a growing profit margin that reached 16.5% over the last decade, 18% over the last five years , and 22% last year.
However, this level of debt is very, very high .
这家公司的售价是其自由现金流的18倍、盈利的15倍，但这个债务水平非常庞大。各位，我通常不喜欢看那些负债很多的公司，尤其是达到这种水平的。这仅相当于其自由现金流的6.3倍。它们可能有很多持续性的义务，以佣金或类似形式欠下的，但我一点也不喜欢这样。
The company is being sold at 18 times its free cash flow and 15 times its earnings, but this level of debt is very large. Guys, I don't usually like looking at companies that have a lot of debt, especially at this level.
This only indicates a 6.3 times their free cash flow . They may have a lot of ongoing obligations that they owe in the form of commissions or something like that, but I don't like that at all.
除此之外，基本上一切，我的意思是，都非常好。价格是22.77。其他方面本来就不错。不过，它们去年的自由现金流也低于去年的净利润，但它们五年的自由现金流高于五年的净利润。
Apart from that, basically everything is, I mean, very good. The price is 22.77. Everything else is not bad in the first place. However, they also had less free cash flow last year than last year's net income , but their five-year free cash flow is higher than their five-year net income.
那么，我们来看看分析师对此怎么说。这里的增长可以接受。盈利增长为12%、11.5%、11.5%，然后有一位分析师的盈利和营收增长为3.85%。不多。4%到6%。各位，没什么值得一提的。
So, let's see what the analysts are saying about this . Acceptable growth here. Earnings growth of 12%, 11.5%, 11.5%, and then one analyst has earnings and revenue growth of 3.85%.
Not much. 4 to 6% . Nothing worth mentioning, guys.
那么，我们接着来看我们的股票分析工具，这是我第一次在这里做这件事。这很令人兴奋。各位，正如我所说，资本回报率很高。关于营收增长，3%、5%和7%都不是有吸引力的交易。对于利润率，我会设定16、18和20。
自由现金流我也会这样做。他们的市盈率很高，而且现在负债很多。我可能会通过要求更高的回报率，把这一点纳入我的安全边际，但我看着这个，看到他们资本回报率高，而且规模很大。我会给他们一个加分。问题是，这个加分有多大？16、19和22。
So, let's move on to our stock analysis tool, as I'm doing this for the first time here. This is exciting. Now, guys, as I said , high returns on capital. Regarding revenue growth, 3, 5 and 7% are not attractive trades.
For profit margin, I would set 16, 18, and 20. I would do the same for free cash flow. Their price-to- earnings ratio is high, and they have a lot of debt now . I might factor that into my safety margin by getting a higher return, but I look at this and see that they have high returns on capital, and they are big.
I will give them a bonus. The question is, how large is this bonus? 16, 19 and 22.
这些债务一直萦绕在我脑海里。这就是为什么我感到有些不安。这就是我在看这类公司时觉得困难的地方。
The debts keep stuck in my mind. That's why I feel a little uneasy . This is what I find difficult when looking at companies like these.
好了各位，我按下了分析按钮。股价目前是280。我设定的低价是200，高价是420，平均价是293。所以，它低于平均价，但根据我的平均假设，它显示的回报率只有10%。所以，在我看来，这不是一笔很有吸引力的交易。
Okay guys, I pressed the analyze button. The stock price is currently 280. I have a low price of 200, a high price of 420, and an average price of 293. So, it is below the average price, but it shows a return of only 10% based on my average assumption.
So, it's not a very attractive deal in my opinion.
这个频道对 $AON 的历次判断
Everything Money 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。