AXON 值得买入/加仓：市销率低于10倍，增速达35%，且相对 Motorola 持续抢占份额。
逐段跳播
我们做过几期关于 Axon 这家公司的视频，但它最大的竞争对手我们还没做过视频，这家公司就是 Motorola。
We've done a couple of videos on the company Axon, but its biggest competitor we have not done a video on, and that company is Motorola.
所以我们要深入挖掘，把这两家公司都看一遍，做比较，同时也会看这个领域里其他一些相邻的公司，我们姑且称之为公共安全板块。
So we're gonna dig deep, look at both of them, compare them, as well as some other adjacent companies in this, we'll call it public safety sector.
但 Motorola 和 Axon 之间的重叠之处。正如 Kasey 所说，Motorola Solutions 在营收上绝对是规模大得多的那家企业。这是最近一个季度的切换对比。
按季度计算，营收是对方的三倍多。Motorola 为 31 亿美元，而 Axon 为 9.04 亿美元。
But the overlap between Motorola and Axon. Motorola Solutions, as Kasey was saying, far and away the bigger business in terms of revenue. Here's the most recent quarter toggle.
Over three times the revenue on a quarterly basis. $3.1 billion for Motorola versus $904 million for Axon.
就规模而言，Motorola 在这里被标为赢家。但在营收增长上，Motorola 同比增长 13%，Axon 为 35%。
In terms of size, Motorola gets highlighted here as the winner. But in revenue growth, 13% year over year for Motorola, 35% for Axon.
Axon 与一家名为 Skydio 的公司合作。这家公司 Skydio 制造的无人机在紧急情况发生时会被部署，显然，无人机到达紧急情况现场的速度比警察或消防车快得多。它们可以抵达现场，并在途中评估走哪条路线最好，实时看到正在发生的情况，然后把这些信息传回指挥中心，并派出合适的人员，希望能以最快的方式抵达紧急情况现场。
它们还能进行人脸识别，所以如果正在发生犯罪，希望能当场抓住罪犯，并把这些信息传回去，因为很多时候也许警察赶到时，罪犯已经离开了。
Axon has teamed up with a company called Skydio. This company, Skydio, manufactures drones that are deployed when an emergency arises and obviously, a drone can get to an emergency situation much faster than a police officer or a firetruck.
They can get to that scene and assess along the way, what is the best route to take, see whatever's happening in real time, and then it can send that information back to the command center and deploy the appropriate people hopefully in the manner that is quickest to get to that emergency situation.
They can also do facial recognition, so if there's a crime being committed, hopefully they catch that criminal in action, and be able to send that information back, because a lot of times maybe the police officers when they get there, the criminal has left.
是的，所以 Axon 获得了投资者的大部分关注，因为它的增长率超过 30%，而这无疑得益于过去几年中的大量收购。
Yeah, so Axon gets most of the attention from investors because of that 30% plus growth rate, which has definitely been helped with numerous acquisitions in the last couple of years.
取决于你是哪种类型的投资者，你可能不想应对 Axon 伴随而来的更高不确定性，因为它在进行激进的收购。有大量的股权激励，最终必须转化，通过股票回购、或许还有股息，变成股东回报。
Depending on the type of investor you are, you may not want to deal with the higher amount of uncertainty that goes with Axon because they're making aggressive acquisitions. There's lots of stock-based compensation that eventually will have to flip and turn into shareholder returns via stock repurchases and perhaps a dividend.
Axon 是年轻的高增长企业。无论是按 GAAP 口径的营业利润，还是按自由现金流口径，它们产生的利润率都不高。它们未来某一天应该会，但目前还没有。
Axon is the young high growth business. They don't generate very much in margin either on a GAAP operating basis or on a free cash flow basis. They should someday in the future, but currently no.
Axon 位居这份榜单之首，紧随其后的是 Motorola。
Axon at the top of this list, followed by Motorola.
所以，没有你在 Axon 身上看到的那种巨大的营收增长，但 Motorola 是一家成熟得多的公司。
So, not this huge revenue growth that you're seeing with Axon, but Motorola is a much more mature company.
是的，这无疑是对 Axon 今年早些时候收购 Dedrone 的回应。
Yeah, and no doubt in response to Axon acquiring Dedrone earlier this year.
好，我们先把那个投资论点存起来，然后来看看 Axon 在我们的反向 DCA 上是什么样子。好，我们做同样的事。把它打开放进一个投资论点里，然后来摆弄这些数字。这个要棘手得多，因为正如我们在公司对比中已经回顾过的，每股收益和自由现金流都相当低。
我认为我们需要对此做一个自定义覆盖，我们有一个新工具，可以让你做盈利正常化，或者像我们半开玩笑地称呼的那样，叫虚假盈利能力。不，假装。假装。假装盈利能力。我们会在本周晚些时候首次推出这个新工具。
现在，我们先按每股收益来加权。它高得多。是 2.41 美元，而另一项是 1.63 美元。或者如果我们想把它正常化，我们可以回头看看 Axon 过去报告过什么。其实，今年早些时候与税收相关的每股收益有一个大幅跃升。
2025 年初、2024 年末，它们的每股收益更像是每季度一美元。所以实际上，与其按当前的过去十二个月每股收益来加权，不如做一个自定义权重覆盖，我们假设 4 美元的年度每股收益是 Axon 在当前这个时点的正常化每股收益水平。
假装盈利能力。它们显然还没到那个水平，但我们假设，如果考虑到它们正在进行的所有投资、所有收购，把它正常化，就说是每年 4 美元。未来十年，什么能让它达到公允价值？我们把终端增长率设为 4%，只是为了留出一点安全边际。
未来十年要达到公允价值，平均增长率需要是多少？相当高，大约 30%，这已经下降了不少。我想我们上次做这个的时候，远超过 30%。
All right, let's save that thesis and then let's take a look at how Axon looks on our reverse DCA. Okay, so we'll do the same thing. Let's open it in an investment thesis and let's play with the numbers.
This one's a lot trickier because the earnings per share and free cash flow, as we already reviewed on the company comparison, are quite low. I think we need to do a custom override on this, and we have a new tool on how you can do a earnings normalization or as we have sort of half jokingly called it a fake profitability.
No, pretend. Pretend. Pretend profitability. We'll debut the new tool later this week. For now, let's just weight this to earnings per share. It's much higher. It's at $2.41 versus $1.63.
Or if we wanted to normalize this, we could go back and look at what Axon has reported in the past. Actually there's the big jump in earnings per share, early this year related to taxes.
Early twenty twenty-five, late twenty twenty-four, they were at more like a dollar per quarter in earnings per share. So actually, instead of weighting to the current trailing twelve-month earnings per share, let's do a custom weight override, and let's assume four dollars in annual earnings per share is a normalized rate of earnings per share for Axon at this particular point in time.
Pretend profitability. They're obviously not there, but let's assume if we normalize it because of all the investments they're making, acquisitions they're making, let's say four dollars on an annual basis.
What gets them to fair value right now over the next ten years? Let's do a terminal rate of four percent just to build in a little bit of safety. What's the average growth rate over the next ten years to get us to fair value?
It's quite high, about thirty percent which is down quite a bit. I think the last time we did this, it was well over thirty percent.
我们最近又经历了一轮抛售。Axon 已跌破每股 500 美元。在这轮最近的抛售之后，我们的市销率回到大约 10 倍，也许略低于 10 倍市销率。在市销率低于 10 倍的情况下，考虑到该公司快速的增长步伐，以及正在从 Motorola 手中夺取大量市场份额，这看起来像是一次合理的少量买入，对投资组合的小幅加仓。
We've had a recent sell-off again. Axon is below five hundred dollars per share. After this recent sell-off, we're back about 10 times price to sales ratio, maybe a little bit below 10 times price to sales.
Under 10 times price to sales, given the company's fast pace of growth and scooping up lots of market share at Motorola's expense, it looks like a reasonable nibble , a small add to the portfolio.
那么，我们要在这里存一个投资论点吗？我们已经有一个 Axon 的持仓，但如果我们需要的话，这会是一个我们或许会再加一点的位置。我想我们会把它评为买入，或者如果你想把它放进你的观察名单。
绝对是早期增长，而且这是长期增长趋势的领导者，也是一句话投资论点中公共安全股票篮子的一部分。
So should we save a thesis here? We already have an Axon position, but this would be a point where we would maybe add a little bit more if we needed it. I think we'd rank this as a buy, or if you wanna put this on your watch list.
Definitely early growth, and this is the secular growth trend leader and part of a public safety basket of stocks in the one-liner thesis.
这个频道对 $AXON 的历次判断
Chip Stock Investor 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。