AZO 以约 30 倍市盈率交易且盈利停滞，估值偏高并已引发 32% 的回调；未来 14% 的增长可支撑温和回报，但意味着收益率低于其应有水平。
逐段跳播
但这里还有一个我认为非常有趣的很好的例子。如果你看 AutoZone，这又是一只纯粹的增长股。你可以看到股价如何与其15.39的市盈率相关。这是市盈率等于增长率。这不是完美的15倍市盈率，但大致是15倍市盈率。
你可以看到，随着这只股票涨到这里，它上涨了三四年。在我看来，这正是真正让投资者栽跟头的地方。你无法知道它什么时候会停止。但突然之间，随着盈利略有走平，这只股票在接近30倍市盈率的高位非常脆弱，而这已经导致了32%的回调。
现在，如果我看这一只的预测，我看到大约14%的增长。按我的定义，这只股票在这里仍然会被高估，但从亏钱的角度看，它并没有危险地高估。基于14%的盈利增长，你仍然可能最终赚到5%的回报率，但显然你在这里得到的回报远少于公司盈利所表明你应得的。顺便说一句，是你应得的，不是公司应得的。
But here's a another good example that I think is really interesting. If you look at AutoZone, this is again another pure growth stock. You see how the price correlated with its PE ratio of 15.39. This is PE equals to the growth rate. This isn't a perfect 15 PE, but it's roughly a 15PE. And you can see that as the stock got up here now, it went it it rose for three or four years. This is the thing that really gets investors in my opinion. You can't know when it's going to stop. But all of a sudden, with earnings flattening a little bit, the stock is very vulnerable up here at almost a 30PE and that has already led to a correction of 32%. Now, if I look at forecasting on this one, I'm looking at about 14% growth. The stock would still be, by my definition, overvalued here, but it's not dangerously overvalued from the standpoint of losing money. You could still end up making a 5% rate of return based on 14% earnings growth, but you're obviously getting a lot less return here than the company's earnings would suggest you deserved. And by the way, you deserved, not the company.
这个频道对 $AZO 的历次判断
FAST Graphs 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。