Ball Corp是一家高质量企业，治理稳健，拥有经常性的维护收入，尽管新建泳池建设面临周期性逆风，仍适合长期积累。
逐段跳播
其中一个名字是“Paul Corp”，我稍后可以谈谈。我知道这是Michael最喜欢的股票。所以，我迫不及待想让他冲我吼。Ballcorp需要从挖游泳池转向挖坟墓。同样的设备，但洞更小。
One of these names is "Paul Corp," which I can talk about shortly. I know it's Michael's favorite stock. So, I can't wait for him to yell at me. Ballcorp needs to switch from digging swimming pools to digging graves. Same equipment, but smaller holes.
Jonathan，让我们谈谈地球上最糟糕的股票之一。Ball Corp。过去两年，我们知道住宅建设处于灾难性的状态。过去两年，美国平均新建游泳池数量约为60,000个，是十多年来的最低水平。
我认为，幸运与否，Bullcorp是最大的批发分销商。因此，这是一个低资本密集型的业务。他们只是分销商。他们不制造产品。但是天哪，这只股票一直跌跌跌。它正走向新低。
Jonathan, let's talk about one of the worst stocks on Earth. Ball Corp. Over the past two years, we know that residential construction is in a disastrous state. In the past two years, the average number of new swimming pools built in the United States has been around 60,000, the lowest level in more than a decade.
I think, fortunately or whatever, Bullcorp is the largest wholesale distributor. Therefore, it is a low- capital-intensity business. They are just a distributor. They do not manufacture the product.
But oh my God, this stock keeps going down and down and down. It is heading towards a new low.
分销商是什么意思？所以，建造游泳池的独立公司从Pool Corp.购买他们的设备，比如化学品、过滤器以及所有这些东西。所以，建设和维护。是的。维护主要是必需的。但是是的。好的。
你可能会认为，如果你建了一个游泳池，你不会在两年后用水泥把它填满。好的。你可能会认为，已安装游泳池的基础仅在最近十年才大幅增长。这是一项常规的、持续的收入。你需要在整个夏天维护你的游泳池。
每个夏天，你都不能休息一年。它会变成一个藻类池。好的。但这似乎并不重要。那么，市场对这只股票的估值是基于什么？只有新建的游泳池。这是他们唯一关心的事情吗？
What does distributor mean? So, independent companies that build swimming pools buy their equipment from Pool Corp., such as chemicals, filters, and all that stuff. So, construction and maintenance.
Yes. Maintenance is mostly required. But yes. Good. You might think that if you build a swimming pool, you won't fill it with cement after two years. Okay . You might think that the base of installed swimming pools has grown significantly only in the last ten years.
This is a regular, ongoing income . You need to maintain your pool throughout the summer. Every summer, you can't take a break for a year . It will turn into a pool of algae. Okay .
But that doesn't seem to matter. So, what does the market value the stock on? Only new swimming pools are being built. Is this the only thing they care about ?
收入其实并没有真正增长，因为在新冠时期，收入每年增长27%。所以当时有大量提前需求，而现在所有人一下子都买了泳池。所有人一下子都买了泳池。现在一切开始回归正常，这就是为什么你看到股价从500左右跌到每股167美元。
现在你以15倍利润买入它，它几乎已经足够便宜了。
Well, revenues didn't really grow because during the Covid era they grew by 27% annually. So there was a lot of advance demand and now everyone got a pool all at once . Oh, everyone got a pool all at once.
Everything is now starting to return to normal, and that's why you see the stock dropping from 500 or so to $167 per share. Now you are buying it for 15 times the profit and it is almost cheap enough.
这是不是那种你会说“好吧，显然我看错了这只股票。它跌得太多了，但也许还有机会被某个白衣骑士拯救”的情况？我的意思是，我宁愿这不要发生，因为我认为那对你来说可能非常糟糕。我的意思是，让我给你一个简要的概述。
我们在2009年写过这件事。我们出版了一期，其中讨论了是时候买入面向消费者的股票了。所以，我们以20美元买入了“Paul Corp”。我们在万豪吃了饭。我们还讨论了其他几个名字。
直到今年夏天我们才再次研究这件事。哇。所以，在过去两年里，我们一直感到心动。我们真的很想写它，但它就是没有便宜到那个程度。但当我们今年夏天写它的时候，我想它的市盈率是17倍，或者也许是18倍。
我们说：“哇，它可能会再便宜一点。”而事情就是这样发生了；它真是一只非常便宜的股票。
Is this the kind of thing where you say, "Well, obviously I was wrong about the stock. It's gone down too much, but maybe there's a chance it could be saved by some white knight."
I mean, I'd rather that didn't happen because I think it could be very bad for you. I mean, let me give you a brief overview. We wrote about this in 2009. We published an issue in which we discussed that it was time to buy consumer-oriented stocks.
So, we had "Paul Corp" for $20. We ate at the Marriott. We discussed a few other names. We didn't look into the matter again until this summer. wow . So, over the past two years, we have been feeling tempted.
We really wanted to write about it, but it just didn't get cheap enough. But when we wrote about it this summer, I think it was a multiple of 17 or maybe 18. We said, "Wow, it could get a little cheaper."
And that's what happened; it's a really cheap stock.
现在，展示一下美国年度新建泳池数量的图表。这是已经触底了，还是真的无从得知？它对利率非常敏感，不是吗？人们在借钱，用抵押贷款额度来挖一个新泳池。所以我们甚至不知道是否已经见到了最糟糕的情况。
我们不知道。我们已经见到了最糟糕的情况，但有迹象表明这是一家经营得非常好的公司。董事会非常出色。如果你看看他们，他们都有分销领域的背景。这是一家杠杆非常低的公司，而且它没有控股股东，正如Michael所指出的，一家私募股权公司当然可能出现并试图收购它。
所以，我的意思是，这并不是投资假设。作为一名长期投资者，我更倾向于，你知道，这是一门很棒的生意。正如我所说，我不想说它像养老金收入，但很接近。那里有大量的维护收入。我更希望能够拥有它，并随着时间积累它的回报。
Now, show the chart of annual new swimming pool constructions in the United States . Has this hit rock bottom, or is there really no way to know? It's very sensitive to interest rates, is n't it?
People are borrowing money and using a mortgage line of credit to dig a new swimming pool. So we don't even know if we've seen the worst. We don't know . We have seen the worst, but there are indications that it is a very well-run company.
The board of directors is fantastic. If you look at them, they all have backgrounds in the field of distribution. This is a very low-leverage company, and it does not have a controlling shareholder, and as Michael pointed out, a private equity firm could certainly come along and try to acquire it.
So, I mean, that's not the investment hypothesis. As a long- term investor, I prefer, you know , this is a great business. As I said, I don't want to say it's like a pension income, but it's close .
There is a lot of maintenance revenue there. I would prefer to be able to own it and accumulate its returns over time.
这个频道对 $BALL 的历次判断
The Compound 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。