看好BE,因为Power Connect将安装时间缩短超过40%,且AI需求强劲;预计价格将在20天内达到240美元。
逐段跳播
各位,我们得谈谈 Bloom Energy。这只股票隐含波动率很高,这也是我今天视频的重点。我想给你们分析一下 Bloom Energy。
Guys, we got to talk about Bloom Energy. This stock has a lot of implied volatility, which is the focus of my video today. I want to give you analysis on Bloom Energy.
8月19日,Bloom 推出了 Power Connect。过去两周,我的社区一直在问我很多关于这只股票的问题,我也在我的频道上报道过几次。这非常有趣。但现在我认为这是投资者运行一个期权策略的绝佳机会,我稍后会讨论。
但首先,我想给你们一个技术分析的分解,以及我认为 Bloom Energy 接下来会发生什么。
So on August 19th, Bloom introduced Power Connect. And for the past two weeks, my community has been asking me a lot about this stock and I've covered it a couple times on my channel. It's been very interesting. But now I think this is a perfect opportunity for investors to run an option strategy that I'll discuss later. But first I want to give you a breakdown of the technical analysis and what I think is going to happen with Bloom Energy next.
看看这里的图表。你可以看到 Bloom Energy 基本上飙升至每股 300 美元以上,然后股价一路暴跌至 200 美元以下。波动非常剧烈。你现在看到的这次下跌实际上是一个企稳。
所以我们在整个八月,过去 30 天里,看到了一些企稳的活动。
So take a look at the chart right here. You can see that Bloom Energy has basically spiked to over $300 per share and then the stock has taken, you know, a nose dive all the way down to under $200. The volatility has been very intense. And what you see right now from this fall is actually a stabilization. So here we have some stabilizing activity in all of August for the past 30 days.
这里的这些黑线是布林带。这是我在社区里教授的关键技术分析工具之一。我已经教授布林带 6 年了。我喜欢布林带的原因是它告诉我股票可能交易的范围。
And this right here, these black lines, this is a Bowlinger band. This is one of the key technical analysis tools that I teach within my community. I've been teaching the Bowlinger band for 6 years now. And what I like about the Bowlinger band is that it tells me the range where the stock is likely to trade.
8月19日发生的是 Bloom 推出了 Power Connect,它表示可以将现场安装时间减少 40% 以上。时间是目前最重要的因素,因为电力速度是我看到的瓶颈。所以这非常重要,因为 Bloom 最大的优势已经是电力速度。
你们意识到电力速度是 Bloom 的竞争优势吗?但现在,8月19日,Bloom 推出了 Power Connect,进一步将现场安装时间减少了 40% 以上。这给了他们显著的竞争优势,这就是为什么我认为 Bloom Energy 的股价很可能在未来 20 天走向区间的高端。
我认为未来 20 天对 Bloom Energy 来说将非常有洞察力。
So what happened on August 19th is Bloom introduced Power Connect which says that they can reduce on-site installation time by more than 40%. And time is the most important factor right now because speed to power is actually the bottleneck that I see. So this is really important because Bloom's biggest advantage is speed to power already. So do you guys realize that speed to power is Bloom's competitive advantage? But now as August 19th, Bloom introduced Power Connect. is actually reduces their on-site installation time by more than 40% further. This gives them a significant competitive advantage and this is why I think that Bloom Energy stock is actually likely to go towards the higher end here of you know next 20 days. I think the next 20 days is going to be very insightful with Bloom Energy.
我认为每股 240 美元是我的目标价,这相当疯狂,因为股价波动太大。240 可能看起来不多,但那很多。那很多,好吗?因为股价 10% 的波动就是 20 美元。所以涨到 240 是超过 10% 的波动。
那太疯狂了。好吗?如果我在我的社区里抓住这个机会,这是我在市场开盘时的计划,那我们会做得很好。我们会赚一些钱。所以 Power Connect 是我认为股价可以上涨的催化剂。
I think $240 per share is kind of like my price target, which is pretty insane because the stock is so volatile. You know, 240 might not seem like a lot, but that's a lot. That is a lot, okay? Cuz a 10% move in the stock is 20 bucks. So, gone up to 240 is over a 10% move. That's insane. Okay? And if I catch that in my community, which is my plan going into um as the market opens up, then we're going to do well. We're going to make some money. So Power Connect is kind of my catalyst here why I think the stock can go up.
所以,Bloom 不仅仅试图生产更便宜的电力。他们试图出售一些 AI 公司现在可能比任何其他东西都更看重的东西,那就是时间。这就是我认为 Bloom Energy 的优势。这就是我视频的重点,为什么我非常看好 Bloom Energy。
我认为每股 24 美元可能在接下来的 20 到 30 天内发生。
So, Bloom isn't just trying to produce cheaper electricity. They're trying to sell something AI companies may value right now way more than anything else, which is really time. Okay, that's what I think Bloom Energy's advantage is. And that's the point of my video of why I am pretty bullish on Bloom Energy. And I think $24 per share could happen in the next 20 to 30 days.
现在股价正好在每股 200 美元。我们可以看到市值是 600 亿美元。我想,我不会说它是一家千亿美元的公司。我也不需要这么说。我试图做的只是通过轮动策略,我只想收集大量的权利金。
那是我的目标。我只想赚得盆满钵满,权利金现金流。就是这样。这就是我想要的,对吧?我不打算长期持有这只股票。我不认为这是下一个英伟达或类似的东西。
It's really conveniently at $200 per share right now. And we can see that the market cap is at a $60 billion market cap. I think, you know, I'm not going to say it's a hundred billion company. And I don't even need to say that. All I'm trying to do is with the wheel strategy, I just want to collect a ton of premium. That's my goal. I just want to make hand over fist, bicep over tricep premium premium cash flow. That's that's it. That's all I want, right? I'm not trying to hold this stock into the future. I don't think this is the next Nvidia or anything like that.
虽然,他们的数字变得相当疯狂。比如在第二季度,Bloom 有史以来最强的季度是超过 10 亿美元的收入。所以是 10.65 亿。当你以百分比看收入增长时,天哪,那个百分比太疯狂了。同比增长 166%。
Although, their numbers are getting pretty crazy. Like in Q2 Bloom, their strongest quarter ever was um over a billion dollars in revenue. So, it was 1.065 billion. And when you look at the revenue growth as a percentage, boy oh boy, that percentage is wild. 166% year-over-year.
说实话,当我看到他们的合作伙伴关系时,看起来不错。所以,他们有的一个主要合作伙伴关系是 Bloom 和 Brookfield,实际上在 6 月将他们的 AI 基础设施融资合作伙伴关系从 50 亿扩大到 250 亿。
所以,那是大约 3 个月前,对吧?我们现在是九月。但有趣的是,我确实看到这体现在他们的资金上。他们的资金看起来很棒。
Honestly, like when I look at their partnerships, it's it's looking good. So, one main partnership that they have is a Bloom and Brookfield, which actually ended up expanding their AI infrastructure financing partnership from 5 billion to 25 billion in June. So, you know, that was like 3 months ago, right? We're in September. But what's interesting is I do see that playing out in their like in their money in the money money. Their money is looking great.
对于想赚钱的投资者,我认为 Bloom Energy 是投资组合中的一个好仓位。它波动大,而且不便宜,但是,如果你有一些钱,如果你的投资组合是五位数的,多个五位数,伙计,我们可以通过期权赚很多钱。真的有很多。
Investors that are looking to make money, I think Bloom Energy is a good position in a portfolio. It's volatile and it's not cheap, but hey, if you got some money, if you have a portfolio that's, you know, in the five figures, multiple five figures, man, there's a lot of money we can make off of options some there. There's honestly genuinely a lot.
所以,他们与 Brookfield 的融资关系在 6 月从 50 亿增加到 250 亿,增加了 5 倍。而且,我认为这将持续引领他们实现高收入增长。所以,这就是我喜欢这个的原因。
我认为 Bloom 不仅需要客户,他们需要合作伙伴关系,好吗?他们需要尽快解决这个问题,因为 AI 中事情变化太快。他们必须快速赚钱。他们必须快速扩张,快速赚钱,因为谁知道竞争会是什么样子。肯定存在竞争风险。
So, their uh relationship with Brookfield's financing increased by 5x from 5 billion to 25 billion in June. And um you know, I think that's going to continue to lead them into high revenue growth. So, that's why I like this. I think Bloom doesn't only need customers, they they need partnerships, okay? They need to really tackle this as fast as possible because in AI things are changing so fast. They they got to make quick money. They have to uh scale fast, make fast money cuz who knows what competition is going to look like. There is risks to competition for sure.
所以当我看到 Bloom Energy 时,我认为他们现在在技术方面带来了力量。所以让我去交易 Bloom Energy 股票,我想向你们展示我在看什么。我只想回到技术分析。如果我运行轮动策略,对吧?
你可以看到这里有一种你应该有的心态。好的。是的,我看涨,但我们也必须考虑风险管理。
So when I look at Bloom Energy, I think they're bringing the the power right now in technology. So let me go to trade Bloom Energy um be stock and I want to show you um what I'm looking at. So I just want to go back here to the technical analysis. Um if I'm running the wheel strategy, right? You can see here that there's kind of a mindset that you should have. Okay. Yes, I'm bullish, but we also have to look at risk management.
一个简单的方法,我评估风险的方法之一是我看布林带。所以布林带的底部是什么?这只股票在未来 20 天内可能跌到多低?从技术上讲,对吧?我也从基本面看。那超出了这个视频的范围。但从技术上讲,194。就这样。好的。这里是 194。
And one simple way, one of the ways that I assess risk is I look at the Ballinger band. So what is the bottom of the Ballinger band? How low could this stock potentially go in the next 20 days? Technically, right? I look at it fundamentally as well. That's beyond this video. Technically though, 194. That's it. Okay. 194 here.
移动平均线。我要放大一点看移动平均线。我们不太能看到,但移动平均线看起来在 240 238 左右。所以,我们看到股价低于移动平均线。它比过去 50 天的平均价格便宜一点。这实际上是个好迹象。
这是一个更好的价值。所以,如果我们弥合这个差距,我们有大约 35 美元要走。在底部,我不认为股价会在未来 20 天内跌破 194。那会不寻常。可能发生,但会不寻常。所以,我们有大约 20 美元的下行保护。
The moving average. I'm going to zoom in here to the moving average a little bit. We can't really see it, but the moving average is looks like it's around 240 238. So, we see that the stock is below the moving average. It's a little cheaper than the last average 50 days. That's actually a good sign. It's a little bit better of a value. So, if we bridge this gap, we got $35 to go or so. And on the bottom end, I don't see the stock falling, you know, below 194 in the next 20 days. It would be unusual. Can happen, but it would be unusual. So, we have about, you know, $20 on on the downside for protection.
所以,看,如果我要运行轮动策略,好的,我喜欢轮动。我一直在教轮动,每周都教,七年,六年。已经很久了。我特别喜欢在高隐含波动率的股票上使用轮动。这就是为什么 BE 好,因为 BE 隐含波动率高。
So, look, if I'm going to run the wheel strategy, okay, I love the wheel. Been teaching the wheel all the time, weekly for seven, six years. It's been a long time. And I like the wheel specifically on high implied volatility stocks. That's why BE is good because BE high implied volatility.
让我给你看。所以,如果我选择未来 20 天,假设我想要短期收入。好的,那是我的目标。然后我会到这里。我会扩展 190。我们来看一下。你可以看到隐含波动率大约是 80。好的。通常股票是 30 35 40 高于 50。
那是高隐含波动率。很高。那很好,因为作为运行轮动策略的期权卖方,当隐含波动率高时卖出期权更有利可图。
Let me show you. So, if I go for the next 20 days, let's say I want shorter term income. Okay, that's my goal here. Then I'm going to go down here. I'm going to I'm going to expand the 190. We're going to take a look at it. You can see the implied volatility is about 80. Okay. Typically stocks are 30 35 40 above 50. That's high implied volatility. It's high. That's good because as an option seller who's running the wheel strategy, um it is more profitable to sell options when the implied volatility is high.
好的,再说一遍,我们的底部大约是194。所以,如果我想更安全,如果我想产生收入并且更安全并产生收入,那么我想去我认为的支撑位下方,190,我会说,是一个小支撑。我不会称它为强支撑,因为事实上AI股票波动性非常大。
所以,我在这里试图优化,好吗?我的目标是优化。如果我想产生金钱,如果我想产生大把的现金,只是现金,我正在努力构建,努力获得二头肌超过三头肌的结果。如果我想达到那种规模,我不仅必须安全,因为我不想炸掉我的投资组合。
我还必须寻找高隐含波动率。最大的教训,最大的收获。
Okay. So again, our bottom is about 194. So, you know, if I wanted to be safer, if I wanted to generate income and and be um safer and produce income, then I want to go below, you know, where I think the support level is, 190, I would say, is a mini support. I'm not going to call it a strong support because the fact is AI stocks are super volatile. So, I'm trying to optimize here, okay? My goal is to optimize. If I want to produce money, if I want to produce fat stacks of cash, just cash, I'm trying to build, trying to get bicep over tricep results. If I want that type of scale, I must not only be safe because I don't want to blow up my portfolio. I must also look for high implied volatility. Biggest lesson, biggest takeaway.
所以对于BE,这里的delta是28,这相当不错。这意味着根据delta,B有20%的机会达到190或更低。好的,delta是一个很好的指标。它是我一直关注的最重要的指标之一。
Delta非常非常重要。好的,这里的买卖价差相当紧。69715很好。那是紧的买卖价差。
So with BE, the delta here is 28, which is pretty good. That means there's a 20% chance of, you know, B going to 190 or below based off of the delta. Okay, the delta is a great metric. It's one of the most important metrics that I look at all the time. Delta is incredibly incredibly important. Okay, the bid ask spread here is pretty tight. 69715 is good. That's tight bid ass spread.
所以,要开始轮动策略,你只需卖出看跌期权。好的,整个过程相当简单。所以,如果我在这里卖出一个看跌期权,大约是700美元。好的,这相当不错。绝对不是什么疯狂的事情。所以,如果我想增加这个,我只需更接近平值。
所以,我会去195这里。让我们展开这个期权。现在,这个的隐含波动率正好是80。这里的delta会高一点。所以,在这里,我会收取880美元。你知道,这非常有吸引力,因为只有两周的时间。
So, simply to start the wheel strategy, you just sell puts. Okay, it's it's a pretty simple process overall. So, if I sell a put here, um it's about $700. Okay, which is, you know, pretty decent. It's definitely not uh anything crazy. So, if I wanted to increase this, I would just go closer to the money. So, I would go 195 right here. Let's expand this option. Now, this one does have implied volatility exactly 80. The delta here would be a bit higher. So, right here, I would collect $880. And you know, this is very attractive because it's only in a twoe period.
现在,更有吸引力的是轮动策略的第二部分,那就是一旦你被指派,对吧,你基本上是在卖出看跌期权,并承担被指派的风险和危险。那不是坏事。你知道,假设我们上周被指派了,对吧?而且Bloom Energy在2011,我们被指派在2023,对吧?
所以,我们有点被套了,对吧?所以,我们该怎么办,对吧?一旦你在轮动策略中被指派,我们只需卖出看涨期权。继续下去。保持现金流。保持那个,你知道,钱进来。你怎么做?卖出看涨期权。一旦你卖出看跌期权,一旦你被指派,你就会被指派。
你的风险相当高,因为,你知道,delta大约在30。十次中有三次你会被指派。然后呢?你得到了880美元。好的。现在呢?好吧,现在你卖出看涨期权。
Now, what's more attractive is the second portion of the wheel strategy, which is once you get assigned, right, you're basically selling a put with the risk and danger of getting assigned. That's not a bad thing. You know, let's say that we got assigned last week or what, right? And Bloom Energy is at 2011 and we got assigned at 2023, right? So, we're under the water a [clears throat] bit, right? So, what we what will we do, right? Once you get assigned in the wheel strategy, we just sell calls. Just keep it going. Keep the cash flow going. keep that, you know, money coming in. How do you do that? Sell calls. Soon as you sell puts once you get assigned, you will get assigned. Your risk is pretty high because, you know, the delta is around 30. Three out of 10 times you'll get assigned. And then what? You got paid $880. Okay. Now what? Well, now you sell calls.
所以,如果你的平均成本是202,是的,在轮动策略中,我教的方式是你要卖出高于你平均成本的备兑看涨期权,因为否则,如果你在你拥有的股票上卖出看涨期权,一个备兑看涨期权,而且它低于你的平均成本,那么,你,你知道,你仍然可以赚钱,取决于你的平均成本,但理想情况下,我们希望高于我们的平均每股成本。
好的。所以,让我们选择一个高于我们理论202平均成本的期权,那就是205。我们不必太高。虽然,我告诉你,我确实认为BE可以达到240。嗯,因为我确实看到短期上涨,我可能会给自己多一点空间。让我们去比如说215这里。
So, if your average cost is 202, yes, in the wheel strategy, the way I teach it is you want to sell covered calls above your average cost because otherwise, if you sell a call, a covered call on the shares that you have and it's below your average cost, well, you're not, you know, you can still make money depending on your average cost, but ideally, we want to be above our average um cost per share. Okay. So, let's go for an option that is going to be above our theoretical 202 average cost, which is 205. we don't have to go too much higher. Although, I'll tell you, I do think be can be 240. Um, and because I do see a shorter term run, I probably would give myself a bit more room. Let's go for let's say uh 215 here.
好的,这真的很有趣,因为你有上涨到215的空间。你有很好的权利金1100美元。你实际上可以在这里看到,期权似乎偏向看涨期权。你可以看到我虚值很多,但权利金仍然非常非常高。所以似乎有一个偏斜,现在看涨期权的定价更高,这也是一个相当看涨的指标。
好的,投资者似乎正在放置更多的波动性和更多的偏斜。我们可以看到隐含波动率稍高一点。我们可以看到看涨期权有一点偏斜。好的,所以这是一个相当不错的指标,表明可能会有看涨走势,期权交易者也可能认为情况会是这样。
Okay, now this is really interesting because um you have upside up to 215. You have nice premium $1,100. You can actually you can actually see here it seems like the options are skewed towards calls. You can see that I'm going out of the money by a lot and the premium is still really really high. So it seems like um there's a skew where call pricing right now is more which also is a pretty bullish indicator. Okay, investors seem to be placing more volatility and more skew. Can see a little bit higher on the implied volatility. We can see a little bit of a skew for the calls. Okay, so that's a pretty decent indicator that there could be a bullish move and option traders are potentially also thinking that that could be the case.
所以215这里的权利金实际上很好,非常非常好。所以,是的,一旦你在轮动策略中被指派,你就有股票,对吧?每份合约100股。然后你只需在股票上卖出虚值的备兑看涨期权。所以你仍然持有你的股票,你卖出215备兑看涨期权,这里的权利金是11.20美元,这实际上有效地使你的盈亏平衡点达到每股226美元。
So 215 here premium is actually nice, very very nice. So yeah, once you get assigned in the wheel strategy, you have shares, right? Each contract's 100 shares. Then you just sell out of the money uh covered calls on the shares. So you still have your shares, you sell 215 covered call, premium here is $11.20, 20 which actually effectively makes your break even $226 per share.
所以当我看到像Bloom Energy作为一家公司在做什么时,他们正在解决时间问题。这可能比燃料电池技术本身更重要。好的。所以我认为时机非常重要。投资者意识到这是AI瓶颈的一个重要部分。
而且所有超大规模企业也在使用BE。所以是的,我非常看好它。我甚至不认为我们需要达到240,投资者才能看到,你知道,很好的现金流,很好的期权卖出的权利金收集,这是,你知道,我出名的,我一直在做的,我个人已经做了大约11、12年,我已经把我的投资组合增长到七位数,很多来自期权卖出,但在早期,我也买期权。
So when I look at um like as a company what Bloom Energy is doing they're solving the time problem. This might be more important than the fuel cell technology itself. Okay. So I think that timing is really important. Investors realize that you know this is a big part of the AI bottleneck. Also all the hyperscalers are also using BE. So yeah I'm pretty bullish on it. I don't even think we need to go to 240 for investors to see, you know, great cash flow, great premium collection from option selling, which is, you know, what I'm known for, what I've been doing for I've been personally doing it for 11, 12 years thereabouts, and I've grown my portfolio to seven figures, a lot of it from option selling, but in the earlier days, I was also option buying.
我认为Bloom Energy为期权买家提供了很多机会。如果你想要我的一些期权买入策略以及我会用BE做什么,我将在我的Discord社区中现场讨论。
I think Bloom Energy has lots of opportunities for option buyers. If you want some of my option buying strategies and what I'd be doing with be, I'm going to be discussing that live in my Discord community.
他说在等什么
这个频道对 $BE 的历次判断
Invest with Henry 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。