BE 展现出强劲的技术趋势与出色表现;尽管近期有所降温,其在替代能源基础设施领域依然表现突出,关键支撑位在纳入指数前保持完好。
逐段跳播
是的,Bloom 在这里的表现异常强劲而出色。我们还可以看到,即便在替代能源基础设施公司之中,它也是一家出类拔萃的公司。
Yes, there is an exceptionally strong and outstanding performance from Bloom here. We can also see that it is a standout company even among alternative energy infrastructure companies here.
但近期我们看到的是价格走势出现了一定程度的缓和。过去十二周里我们记录到一个高点 351.28,此后便一直向下运行。不过我们突破了蓝色的下降趋势线。蓝色的长期上升趋势线仍然有效,但已被一条更陡峭的、指向上的白色趋势线所取代。
所以,目前我们在 280 附近触及了一个高点。周五看起来我们可能会跌破下降趋势线,但今天的盘前活动很可能已把我们强劲地推回该水平之上。
But what we have seen recently has been a kind of moderation in price movement. We recorded a peak at 351.28 during the past twelve weeks, and since then we have been trending downwards.
But we broke through the downtrend line in blue. The long-term upward trend line in blue is still in place , but it has been replaced by a sharper white trend line pointing upwards.
So, for now, we have reached a high point around 280 . Friday looked like we might break the downtrend line, but today's pre-market activity has likely pushed us back strongly above that level.
前方有前期高点以及 254 附近的一个缺口,这里和那里还有 198、194 或 185 的另一个低点,而我们这轮回调的另一个峰值将出现在 320。
There are previous highs and a gap near 254, another low point here and there at 198 and 194 or 185, and another peak of our pullback is coming at 320.
如果看移动平均线,周五的走势看起来我们不仅要跌破趋势线,还要跌破深蓝色的 5 日指数移动平均线,它代表一周。所以,看起来我们正在这条短期移动平均线处出现反弹。如果我们开始滑到它下方,那可能是方向可能发生变化的早期信号。
If we look at the moving averages, Friday's activity looked like we were going to break not only the trend line, but also the 5-day exponential moving average in dark blue which represents one week .
So, it appears that we are seeing a bounce off this short-term moving average here. If we start to slip under it, that could be an early sign of a possible change in direction.
相对强弱指数(RSI)正在向下运行。我们可以看到红色趋势线仍然有效。但绿色趋势线同样仍然成立。我们位于 50 这一中线上方。我们还有这个需要纳入考虑的三角形形态。因此,要留意突破其中任一条趋势线的走势,以更清晰地界定下一步方向。
The Relative Strength Index (RSI ) is trending downwards. We can see that the red trend line is still active. But the green trend line is still valid as well. We are above the midline at level 50.
We have this triangular shape that needs to be taken into account here. Therefore, look for a breakout that crosses either of these trend lines to more clearly define the next direction.
现在,研究成交量分布可以告诉我们大额成交量集中在哪些价格水平。我们可以看到,我们正处在一个密集区之内,也就是 265 到 295 之间那些大额成交集群。所以,一旦我们开始升破 295,如果这真的发生,我们可能会看到更快的价格波动。
在这些极高的价位上,这是一个相对清淡的成交区。你还可以注意到,它在某种程度上与从这里开始的这一段价格区间相对应。与此同时,在下行方面,我们发现 207 到大约 230 这一水平是我们在这些较低阶段大部分活动集中的地方。因此,这也可能是一个值得关注的支撑区域。
Now, studying our volume profile shows us where large trading volumes are concentrated at which price levels. We can see that we are inside a knot, which is those large trading clusters between 265 and 295.
So, once we start to rise above 295, if that happens, we may see faster price movements. This is a relatively light trading zone at these extremely high levels. You can also note that it corresponds to some extent with a portion of this price range from here.
Meanwhile, on the downside, we find that the 207 to around 230 level is where most of our activity is concentrated in these lower phases. Therefore, this may also be a notable area for support.
最后,我想提请注意周五交易日极为沉重的成交量。人们可能是在这只股票被纳入标普 500 指数之前提前布局,而这对该标的的基本面预期是一个重大变化。
Finally, I would like to draw attention to the extremely heavy trading volume in Friday's session. People may be making moves ahead of this stock being included in the S&P 500 index, which is a major change in the fundamental expectations for this name.
当然,正如我所说,这会导致来自机构投资的更大规模负向资金流。但是,要设想这只股票的一笔典型交易,可以看 11 月 20 日,也就是我们这里的绿色方框。大约 30% 的涨跌幅,这与这里这些旧峰值是一致的。
Of course, as I said, this leads to larger negative flows from institutional investment here. But, to think about a typical deal for this name, looking at November 20th, that's our green box here.
With an increase or decrease of approximately 30%, which is consistent with these old peaks here.
因此,在所讨论的这笔交易中,这只股票的期权非常昂贵。所以,如果你担心在买方建立多头敞口会承担高额成本,可以考虑的一种做法是蝶式策略。因此,在 11 月 20 日买入执行价为 300、350 和 400 的看涨期权蝶式策略,成本为 610。
那么,我们的最大亏损就是所支付的 610 这一成本。如果到期时价格恰好落在 350 这一平均执行价上,我们的最大利润将是 4,390。盈亏平衡点位于 306.10 和 393.90,分别代表约 13% 和 45% 的涨幅。
我们预期的波动幅度约为 30%。所以,这会给我们一笔能够获得该多头敞口的交易。如果我们迎来有利走势,将有机会提前平仓,但要小心,如果我们开始超出那个备受期待的波动幅度,我们将再次回到处于亏损水平的情形。
因此,这是一笔可能需要一些管理的交易,但它让你以更低的成本获得上行敞口。
Therefore, in the deal in question, the options were very expensive in this stock. So, one thing you can consider is a butterfly strategy if you are afraid of the large costs you would incur to get a long exposure on the buy side.
Therefore, buying a Butterfly Call Options strategy on November 20th at execution prices of 300, 350, and 400 at a cost of 610. So, our maximum loss is the cost paid of 610 here.
Our maximum profit if the expiry expires exactly at the average execution price of 350 would be 4,390 here. The break-even points are at 306.10 and 393.90, representing increases of approximately 13% and 45% respectively .
Our expected movement is around 30% here. So, this will give us a deal through which we get that long exposure. We will have the opportunity to close it early if we get a positive move, but beware if we start to exceed that much-anticipated move .
We will return once again to a situation where we are at our loss levels here. Therefore, it is a deal that may require some management, but it gives you exposure to upside at a lower cost.
观察点
这个频道对 $BE 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 3 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。