BKNG 是一只值得坚定持有的标的,凭借可盈利的客户浮存金管理、高覆盖率以及积极回购股份(并在股价下跌中受益)。
逐段跳播
这里我说的是 Wise 和 Booking Holdings,因为这两家公司为客户持有现金。
And here I'm talking about Wise and Booking Holdings because these companies hold cash for their customers.
说到 Booking Holdings,情况就不一样了,对吧?因为人们在预订酒店时是提前付款的。这笔现金先由他们持有,等客人退房之后,他们再付给酒店。
Coming to Booking Holdings, this is different, right? Because people pay in advance when they're booking hotels. They get to keep the cash, and then they're going to pay the hotels after the person has checked out.
所以,如果我在9月付了酒店的钱,而我要到11月才出行,那么在这两个月里,Booking Holdings 会持有这笔现金,并从中赚取利息。他们用这笔现金回购股票,用这笔现金维持运营。
So if I paid hotels in September and I'm going to travel in November, for two months Booking Holdings is going to hold the cash, and they earn interest on this cash. They use the cash to repurchase shares. They use the cash to run operations.
现在你可能会问我,他们怎么能这样用别人的钱?因为他们也在借钱。他们承担债务。但这是长期债务。他们可以以较低的利率借入五年期、十年期的资金。然后他们在短期内使用来自旅行者、来自客户的现金。
Now, you may tell me, how are they using other people's money like this? Because they also borrow. They take debt. But this is long-term debt. They can borrow at lower rates for five years, 10 years from now.
And then they are using the cash that is coming from travelers, from customers, in the short term.
只要他们资产负债表上有足够的现金来应对可能的取消、可能的退款,这就不会成为问题。他们在2020年做得非常好。而现在——这是我自己的计算——我认为他们的浮动资金覆盖率达到了254%。
And as long as they have enough cash on the balance sheet to counter the possible cancellations, the possible refunds, it is not going to be an issue. They did this very well in 2020.
And right now—this is my own calculation—I believe that they have 254% of the float covered.
这两家公司,Wise 和 Booking Holdings,约占我投资组合的50%。
These two companies, Wise and Booking Holdings, are about 50% of my portfolio.
所以,就 Wise、尤其是 Booking Holdings 而言,如果市场认为高利率意味着股价必须下跌,Booking Holdings 就会抓住机会回购更多股票。
So in the case of Wise and especially Booking Holdings, if the market believes that high interest rates mean stock prices need to go down, Booking Holdings takes the opportunity to repurchase more shares.
目前,回购收益率大约在8%。他们一年回购公司约8%的股份。如果股价下跌,也许那会达到10%。想象一下,这样一家大公司一年回购自身10%的股份。
Right now, the buyback yield is around 8%. They are repurchasing about 8% of the company in a year. If stock prices go down, maybe that would be 10%. Imagine such a big company repurchasing 10% of itself in a year.
Booking Holdings 就是这样成为回购吞噬者的。
That's how Booking Holdings became a buyback cannibal.
这个频道对 $BKNG 的历次判断
Ishfaaq Peerally 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。