由于后巴菲特时代领导层的不确定性以及企业集团效率问题,BRK.B的评级从S下调至S/A。
逐段跳播
这有点像伯克希尔。你不能把它放在某个层级之下。但是,我们会讨论伯克希尔,因为那里有一个有趣的情况,即从巴菲特到阿贝尔的交接。
It's sort of like Birkshshire. It's like you can't put it below a certain tier. But you know, we'll talk about Bur Share because there's sort of an interesting um situation there as you've got this migration from Buffett to AEL.
如果你看看伯克希尔的历史,它可能是有史以来最伟大的连环收购者。巴菲特建立的一些资产,它们可能在50年后仍然存在。
if you look at Bergkshire's history it might be the greatest serial choir of all time. Some of the assets that Buffett's built um they're probably going to be around 50 years from now.
伯克希尔,我肯定会的。我的意思是,看看铁路,比如,嗯,那个叫什么?抱歉。伯灵顿北方圣塔菲。所以,是的,我认为他们过去做了一些非常好的收购。我认为他们会存在很长时间。
Bergkshire, I think for sure will. I mean, just look like the trains for instance, you know, um with um um what's it called? Sorry. Uh Burlington Northern Santa Fe. Um so yeah, I mean I I think that that they made some really really good acquisition in the past. I think they'll be around for a long period of time.
我认为从历史上看,毫无疑问显然是S级。是的。但问题是未来的定位。嗯,是的,我认为,正如我之前提到的,我觉得今年的股东大会不那么鼓舞人心。而且,公平地说,格雷格被认为是一个非常自律的经营者。
然而,巴菲特又在插手。我认为,市场长期为伯克希尔哈撒韦的账面价值支付溢价,因为你在支付这种“奥马哈先知”的溢价,你有幸让历史上最伟大的资本配置者为你配置资金,这确实存在真正的问号。
I think historic not without even question obviously S tier. Yes. but the question is going forward with the positioning. Um, yeah, I think uh, you know, I I as I was alluding to before, I think we found this year's shareholder meeting just a lot less inspiring. Uh, and to Greg's credit, you know, he's considered, uh, you know, a very disciplined operator. Uh, and then yet you have, you know, Buffett kind of stepping on his toes. I I think there's genuine question marks around um you know basically the market has has long paid a premium to book value uh for Bergkshire Hathaway because you're paying this kind of Oracle of Omaha premium right you you you get the privilege of having the best capital allocator in history allocating your money for you
所以,即使这是一个极其多样化、几乎看似随机的公司集合,人寿保险、铁路、冰雪皇后、汽车保险、房屋建筑,这些不同的东西有什么共同点?它们共同点是它们都是由巴菲特挑选的,他认为它们是很好的赌注。
and so it doesn't matter if it's this um incredibly uh diverse and almost seemingly random uh collection of of companies you know what what do life insurance and and railroads and [laughter] and Dairy Queen and you know these different things uh auto insurance what do these different things have home building what do they have in common uh and um you know like I said what they have in common is that they were picked out by by Buffett and that he thought they were great bets
而且,问题再次是,当巴菲特不再掌舵时,这种大型企业集团在市场的眼中是否仍然高效、是否仍然有意义。所以我认为在一段时间内,市场愿意给伯克希尔怀疑的好处。这是长期赢得的。所以我认为阿贝尔也会得到怀疑的好处。
and um again the question is whether the this kind of mega conglomerate um whether it's it it's still as efficient and makes as much sense going forward um in the market's eyes uh when you no longer have Buffett calling the shots. And so I think for a period of time uh you know the market is uh willing to give Birkshshire the benefit of the doubt. It's it's earned that over a long time. Um and and so I think Abel gets the benefit of the doubt.
但是,几年后,如果股票持平或表现不佳,我也不会感到惊讶,我很容易看到人们说这种企业集团的结构不合理。而且,它确实有很多高质量的资产,但也许没有我们想象的那么高质量。我们看到加州野火引发的一些负债。
我们看到Progressive从GEICO手中夺走了市场份额,成为全国最大的汽车保险公司。
Um but yeah, in a couple years from now, I also wouldn't be surprised if you had people um you know, if the stock were to to be flat, underperform, um I could easily see people calling for uh you know, saying that the conglomerate just doesn't make sense the way it's currently structured. And you know, it does have a lot of high quality assets, but um maybe not as high quality as we thought. You know, we've uh saw some of the liabilities that emerge from the California wildfires. Uh we've seen progressive take over uh market share from GEICO as the largest autoinsurer in the country.
嗯,我会把伯克希尔放在S级和A级之间,因为我刚才提到的原因,我不能把它完全放在S级。
Um, I would put Birkshshire. I can't put it cleanly in the S tier because of the the reasons um that I just cited, but I think I think S to A between the between them two.
这大概感觉是对的,它有令人难以置信的血统,但今天公司面临的未来不确定性肯定比近期历史上任何时候都要大。是的,很难不把它放在S级,但我认为你说得完全对。格雷格·阿贝尔看起来真的很好。
但他是沃伦·巴菲特吗?我认为答案是否定的。显然,在运营方面,他可能比巴菲特更好,但在伯克希尔内部,要让它继续增长并成为一个好企业,不仅仅需要这些。
probably feels about right where you have this in incredible pedigree. Um but definitely more uncertainty uh facing the future of the company today than um at any point in in recent history. Yes. I mean it's hard not to just be like this goes in the S section, but I think you're completely right. Greg Ael seems really really good. Is he Warren Buffett though? I you know I think the answer to that is no. Um obviously he's gonna on the operational side of things he's maybe he is better than Buffett on that end of the uh the spectrum but um there's more to just that in inside of Berkshire to to continue having it to grow and be a good business.
所以,我认为这可能有道理,我们拭目以待。我记得我们在内在价值大师班上讨论过这个,从我们的一些结论来看,我们想知道巴菲特显然会在某个时候离开,他的股票将捐给慈善机构,这意味着股东集中度会降低,那些与巴菲特特别一致的股东会减少。
谁知道呢,我们只是在猜测,但那里有很多非常好的资产,如果有人想进来基本上改变伯克希尔,让它更专注于一个领域,谁知道呢,可能发生很多事情。
So, um I think this Yes, I I I would say this probably makes sense and you know I mean we'll have to see I mean I remember we we were talking about this on the intrinsic value uh mastermind and um just from some of our takeaways and we were wondering you know what happens obviously Buffett's going to go at some point and his shares are going to go to charity which then means that um you know that there's going to be more um there's going to be less concentration of of shareholders that that are in line specifically ically with Buffett and who knows that I mean obviously we're just speculating here but there are a lot of really good assets there and if someone wanted to come in and basically change Berkshire and and make it more focused on one area who knows I mean there's there's tons of different things that could happen here
但这对格雷格·阿贝尔来说是一项艰巨的工作,我希望他能做得非常好,但就评级而言,即使回到五年前,我想我们可能都会把它放在S级,但考虑到该业务的一些不确定性,我认为它应该放在这里。
but um it's a hard job for Greg Ael and and uh I hope he does a really really good job but yeah in terms of the rating here um you know go back even five years ago and I think we probably both are just putting it this in the S tier Um, but uh with with some of the uncertainty in in that business, I think that uh that this is where it belongs.
与Constellation Software和伯克希尔哈撒韦相比,它的质量是D级。当你从这个角度看,我更倾向于说它的多元化程度远低于伯克希尔哈撒韦。
It's a Dquality compared to Constellation Software and Birkshshire Hathway. And when you look at it through that lens, um I am more inclined to to say so it's considerably less diversified uh than Birkshshire Hathway.
这个频道对 $BRK.B 的历次判断
The Intrinsic Value Podcast 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。