BRK.B 因持有大量现金且人工智能敞口较低，是省心投资中一个谨慎而“尚可”的选择，不过这种安全性已被市场定价，且保险行业未来可能面临危机。
逐段跳播
有没有什么安全的基金，类似那样的，比如Berkshire，能为我做到这一点？
Is there something safe fund, something like that, Berkshire, that can do that for me?
我们都在寻找便宜、省心的基金，而Berkshire手头仍有3660亿美元现金。这占资产负债表的40%多。现在Greg Abel正在花钱，我不知道我和Warren是否意见一致，但那是另一回事。
We all seek for cheap funds, easy, and then Berkshire is still at 366 billion in cash. Which is 40 something percent of the balance sheet. Now Greg Abel is spending something I don't know whether me and Warren agree, but that's a different story.
我是说，在当下这个时点，在经历了15个辉煌年头、实际上也是45个惊人年头之后，我们正处在投资赌博的顶峰。然后你来找我，你说：“给我点省心的东西，好让我像我爸爸过去15年、或者20年、30年那样赚钱就行。
我没法做对冲。我没法花太多时间在这上面。就给我省心的。”……因为说到投资，也许对Berkshire要谨慎地说一声是。它不算出色。它不算好。Berkshire还行。
I'm saying that at this moment in time, after 15 great years and actually after 45 amazing years, we are at the peak of investment gambling. And then you come to me and you ask, "Give me something easy so that I can just make money like my dad made money the last 15 years or 20, 30. I can't be hedged. I can't spend too much time working on it. Just give me easy." ... Because when it comes to investing, maybe cautious yes to Berkshire. It's not great. It's not good. Berkshire is okay.
但那又回到了持有股票这件事上。它比标普500更安全吗？是的，它现金多得多，AI敞口很小，但它现在也已经为此定价了。
But that's then again, owning stocks. Is it safer than the S&P 500? Yes, it has much more cash, has little AI exposure, but it's also priced for that already now.
更好？是的。你或许可以考虑一下。所以，唯一的选择可能就是Berkshire。但Berkshire是保险。过去10到15年里，你还没有见过保险业的危机。2000年代初、1980年代，Berkshire的市盈率只有8到9倍。这种情况还会再次发生。
Better? Yes. You might think about it. So, the only option might be Berkshire. But Berkshire is insurance. You have not yet seen a crisis in insurance in the last 10-15 years. Early 2000s, 1980s, Berkshire was trading at P ratios of 8-9. It will happen again.
我在这里想，我能说什么呢？也许是Berkshire，但先解决你的生活，然后才是额外的部分。在评论区告诉我你的想法，看看有没有一些解决方案，也许比Berkshire更好。
I'm thinking here, what can I say? Maybe Berkshire, but solve your life and then just the extra. Let me know in the comments what you're thinking to see if there are some solutions, perhaps better than Berkshire.
这个频道对 $BRK.B 的历次判断
Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。