BROS 具备强劲增长且估值偏低,因此值得买入;其内在价值较当前股价高出约 45%。
逐段跳播
Dutch Bros 是我最近更加密切关注的一家公司,因为我在这里看到了一个机会。在最近一个季度,Dutch Bros 报告营收为 5.51 亿美元,与去年同期相比增长了 32%。
Dutch Bros is a company I've been watching more closely lately because I've seen an opportunity here. In the latest quarter, Dutch Bros reported $551 million in revenue, which is up 32% compared to the same quarter last year.
那么,让我们更仔细地看看这是否已经是一个买入机会。那么,从更长期来看这家企业,其增长轨迹非常出色。公司在过去 12 个月期间的营收已增长至 19 亿美元。这相比 2021 年约 2.5 亿美元有所上升。
So, let's take a closer look to see if this is a buying opportunity already. So, looking at the business longer term, the growth trajectory has been excellent. The company has scaled to $1.9 billion in revenue over the trailing 12-month period. That's up from around $250 million in 2021.
在一个存在显著宏观经济逆风的时期实现 30% 的营收增长,我认为对于这一类别中的这样一家企业来说是非常出色的。
And 30% revenue growth in a period where there's been significant macroeconomic headwind, I think is excellent for a business like this in this category.
所以,我喜欢这家企业已经实现正现金流,但我有点担心经营现金流与销售额之比的提升已经停滞。该比率为 19.4%,与几年前的水平大致相当。尽管如此,自那以来这家企业已经显著增长。
So, I like that the business is already cash flow positive, um but I'm a little concerned that the increases in cash flow from operations to sales ratio have stalled. At 19.4%, it's about the same level it was at a couple of years ago.
Despite that, the business has grown significantly since then.
也许这正是宏观经济逆风对企业影响最大的地方,不是体现在营收增长上,而是体现在利润率的改善上。现在,他们能够将营业利润率从 2024 年的约 5% 提升至过去 12 个月期间的约 9.7%。
Perhaps this is where the macroeconomic headwinds are impacting the business most significantly, is not in top line growth, but in improving margins. Now, they were able to improve their operating profit margin from around 5% in 2024 to about 9.7% over the trailing 12-month period.
我也喜欢 Dutch Bros 正在改善其投入资本回报率。如果你要打造一家咖啡店企业,这是你必须擅长的事情。如果你在打造一家不断新增门店的咖啡企业,每一家新门店都需要大量投资,对吧?
数千万美元,甚至数亿美元,取决于餐厅或咖啡店的规模和范围以及选址。因此,你必须擅长寻找这些选址并创建这些门店,拥有一套标准化的门店创建流程,并且能够在你想经营的各个地区复制这一流程。
I also like that Dutch Bros is improving its returns on invested capital. This is something you have to be good at if you're building a coffee shop business. If you're building a coffee business with new locations being added, each new location requires significant investment, right?
Tens of millions, if not hundreds of millions of dollars, depending on the size and scope and location of the restaurant or coffee shop. And so you've got to be good at finding these locations and creating these locations, having a standardized process for location creation, and being able to replicate that throughout the regions where you want to operate.
而 Dutch Bros 已经在这方面展现出能力。即便在其较小的规模下,其投入资本回报率已经为正,达到 6.6%。
And already Dutch Bros is demonstrating skill in this regard. Even in its smaller scale, it's already positive in terms of returns on invested capital at 6.6%.
而且 Dutch Bros 的估值比以往任何时候都更具吸引力,我已经关注这一点好几年了。Dutch Bros 目前的远期市盈率为 33 又 1/2。按照这一指标,这是自 2023 年以来的最低水平。
And valuation is more attractive than it's ever been for Dutch Bros, and I've been following this for a couple of years now. Dutch Bros is now selling at a forward price to earnings of 33 and 1/2.
This is the cheapest it's been according to this metric going back all the way to 2023.
所以估值具有吸引力。这家企业正向投资者展示出成功运营并扩大规模以抓住机会的早期迹象。
So the valuation is attractive. The business is showing investors early signs of a successful operation and scaling up to an opportunity.
记住,人们每年在购买咖啡上花费超过 400 美元。所以这是一个相对中等规模的市场机会。它不算大,也不算小。这是一个中等规模的机会,Dutch Bros 正在通过增长来抓住它。
Remember, people spend over $400 a year purchasing coffee. So it's a relatively medium-sized market opportunity. It's not large. It's not small. It's a medium-sized opportunity that Dutch Bros is growing to capture.
当我使用贴现现金流估值方法进行衡量时,估值看起来也很有吸引力。按每股 64 美元计算,我计算出的内在价值或公允价值大约比当前 44 美元的市场价格高出 45%。
The valuation also looks attractive when I measure it using a discounted cash flow valuation approach. At $64 per share, the intrinsic value or fair value I calculated is roughly 45% above the current market price of $44.
所以,我在这里看到 Dutch Bros 股票有显著的上行空间。那么,回答我在标题中提出的问题,我确实认为这是一个买入机会。我对这一评级持有中等信心水平,而且这不是一只风险高于平均水平的股票。
因此,风险承受能力处于相对中等至较高水平的投资者应考虑这一点。
So, I see a significant upside here for Dutch Bros stock. So, to answer the question I posed in the headline, I do see this as a buying opportunity. I have a medium conviction level on this ranking, and this isn't above average risk stock.
So, this should be considered with investors with a relatively medium to high level of risk tolerance.
这个频道对 $BROS 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。