尽管业务指标强劲，但BSX目前并非有吸引力的买入标的，因其5年表现不佳且ROIC平庸。
逐段跳播
第二支箭，波士顿科学。交易代码是BSX。让我们在节目中介绍它。它今年下跌了约50%，这只股票与TTD完全不同，因为业务仍然非常强劲。波士顿科学生产救生医疗设备，尤其是心脏方面的，并且继续以每年约7%的速度增长。
那么为什么它的价格下跌了一半呢？因为投资者期望过高。年初时，管理层预期增长约10%到11%。然后他们又将其下调至5-6%。因此，当一家高增长公司突然停止快速增长时，其高价格就会崩溃。
去年二月，该股单日下跌17%，这是其20多年来最糟糕的一天。这发生在他们首次下调预期的时候。然而，上个季度实际上非常强劲。销售额54亿美元，利润与一年前相比有良好增长。
The second arrow, Boston Scientific. The trading symbol is BSX. Let's feature it in our program. It has fallen by about 50% this year, and this stock is completely different from TTD because the business is still very strong. Boston Scientific produces life-saving medical devices, especially for the heart, and continues to grow by about 7% annually. So why did its price drop by half? Well, because investors were expecting too much. At the beginning of the year, management was expecting growth of around 10 to 11%. Then they reduced it again to 5-6%. Therefore, when a high-growth company suddenly stops growing rapidly, its high price collapses. Last February, the stock fell 17% in a single day, its worst day in more than 20 years. This happened when they lowered their expectations for the first time. However, the last quarter was actually very strong. Sales of 5.4 billion with a good rise in profits compared to what they were just one year ago.
所以，乐观的一面。这家公司约75%的业务仍在良好增长。世界正在老龄化，这意味着未来几十年对心脏手术的需求将增加。这些是救命的治疗，不是可选的购买。因此，这种需求极其稳定。这是一家创新且经过验证的公司。
其国际销售以两位数增长，并且刚刚进行了一次重大收购以扩展到有前景的新领域。这总体上是一项好业务，但它变得昂贵，然后经历了一个调整阶段。
So, the optimistic side. About 75% of this company is still growing well. The world is aging, which means increased demand for heart procedures for decades to come. These are life-saving treatments , not optional purchases. Therefore, this demand is incredibly constant. It is an innovative and proven company . Its international sales are growing at double digits, and it has just made a major acquisition to expand into promising new areas. This is generally a good business, but it became expensive and then went through a correction phase.
悲观的一面。原本应该推动增长的具体产品突然面临强劲的新竞争，而且这个市场大部分已经饱和。因此，担忧是快速增长的日子一去不复返了。第二个主要产品，Watchman心脏监测器，也在放缓。
在6个月内两次下调指引也损害了管理层的信誉。它正在完成一项大规模且高风险的145亿美元收购，并且刚刚遭受了一次扰乱发货运营的网络攻击。所以，大问题是5%到6%的增长是这家公司的新常态，还是增长回升前的暂时低点？
The pessimistic side. The specific products that were supposed to fuel growth are suddenly facing strong new competition , and this market is mostly saturated. Therefore, the fear is that the days of rapid growth are gone forever. A second major product , the " Watchman" heart monitor, is also slowing down. Lowering the guidelines twice in 6 months also damages the credibility of the administration. It is in the process of completing a massive and risky $14.5 billion acquisition, and has just suffered a cyberattack that disrupted shipping operations. So, the big question is whether 5 to 6% growth is the new normal for this company, or is it a temporary low point before growth picks up again?
让我们检查数字并为最坏情况做假设。伙计们，再说一次，这是一家市值720亿美元的公司。该机构估值910亿，这相当于190亿美元的债务，主要是。过去一年自由现金流为3.6%，过去五年为2.2%。
因此，它略高。大约是自由现金流的六倍或五倍半，就债务而言。我喜欢的是，过去一年自由现金流几乎与净利润相同。价格对自由现金流是20，市盈率是20，但这些资本回报率相当温和。过去五年每年5.7%，去年7.3%。
不错，但也不伟大。事实上，过去五年的表现非常糟糕。忘了我说的。非常糟糕。现在，为什么他们的利润率从过去十年的每年13%跃升？它下降到12%，然后去年上升到17.5%。这是值得思考并在未来考虑的事情。
我们社区的成员目前认为这家公司处于保留模式。但让我们看看八大支柱。好。这里有很多负面因素。是的，现金流在增加。是的，净利润在上升。是的，收入在增长，但其他一切都不好。现有股票不差，但伙计们，我不知道。
这对我来说似乎还不是一个有吸引力的买入机会。我可能错了。
Let's check the numbers and make assumptions for the worst-case scenario. Guys, once again, it's a company with a market capitalization of $72 billion. The institution is valued at 91 billion, which is equivalent to $19 billion in debt, mainly. Free cash flow of 3.6% over the past year, and 2.2% over the past five years. Therefore, it is slightly higher. It is about six times or five and a half times the free cash flow in terms of debt. What I like is that the free cash flow is almost the same as the net income over the past year. The price-to- free cash flow is 20, and the price-to-earnings ratio is 20 , but these returns on capital are rather lukewarm . 5.7% annually for the past five years , and 7.3% last year. Not bad, but not great either. In fact, the performance over the past five years has been extremely poor. Forget what I said. It's very bad. Now, why has their profit margin jumped from 13% annually over the past ten years? It dropped to 12 % and then rose to 17.5% last year. This is something worth thinking about and considering in the future. Members of our community currently consider this company to be in retention mode. But let's look at the eight pillars. Good. There are many negative things here. Yes, the cash flow is increasing. Yes, net income is on the rise. Yes, revenues are rising, but everything else is not good . The existing stocks aren't bad, but guys, I don't know. This doesn't seem like an attractive buying opportunity to me yet . I may be wrong.
有趣的是，分析师预测其收益将在未来六年内从3.40美元翻倍至7美元。六年翻倍意味着每股收益增长12%。收入从220亿增长到380亿。这里似乎对增长没有太多担忧。未来七八年每年8%到11%。因此，分析师似乎对此非常乐观。
Interestingly, analysts predict its earnings will double from $3.40 to $7 over the next six years. Doubling in 6 years means a 12% growth in earnings per share. Revenue growth from 22 billion to 38 billion . There don't seem to be many concerns about growth here. From 8 to 11% annually for the next seven or eight years. Therefore, analysts seem very optimistic about this in the
这个频道对 $BSX 的历次判断
Everything Money 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。