受市场情绪影响，BX相对其历史水平被低估；可分配收益的增长以及人工智能基础设施相关敞口，支撑将其纳入观察名单。
逐段跳播
最后是Blackstone。说实话，这只股票原本并不在我准备好的名单上。这是我第一次把别人名单上的股票标上箭头。原因是我最近在《Mispriced》播客中采访了David Bonson，他管理着超过100亿美元的资金，采用股息增长策略。
Finally, we have Blackstone. To be perfectly honest , this stock was not technically on the list I had prepared. For the first time, I'm placing an arrow from someone else's list.
That's because I recently interviewed David Bonson on the "Mispriced" podcast , who manages over $10 billion using a dividend growth strategy.
David Bunson告诉我被错误定价的股票就是Blackstone。他的逻辑非常简单直接。他指出，该股仍低于其历史最高点，而现金流和股息却在持续增长。不过，该股仍受到围绕私人信贷和另类资产管理公司的负面情绪拖累。他这一点说得完全正确。
The stock that David Bunson told me was mispriced is " Blackstone". His logic was very simple and straightforward. It was noted that the stock is still below its all- time high while its cash flows and dividends continue to grow.
However, the stock remains hurt by negative sentiment surrounding private credit and alternative asset managers . He is absolutely right about that.
去年，Blackstone的股价下跌了31.7%。自今年年初以来，它已下跌约18.6%，甚至就在我们说话的当下，该股仍在继续下跌。上个月，该股下跌了约11%。
Last year, Blackstone's stock fell by 31.7%. Since the beginning of the year, it has fallen by about 18.6%, and even as we speak, the stock has continued to decline. Last month, the stock fell by about 11%.
不过，在这样的价格下交易，使派息指标看起来有吸引力得多。但Blackstone实现了约4.2%的回报率。这是一个非常好的初始股息率，再加上过去几年股息增长一直非常有吸引力。
However, trading at these prices makes the payout metrics look much more attractive . But Blackstone is achieving a return of around 4.2%. This is a very good initial dividend yield, coupled with the fact that dividend growth has been very attractive over the past few years.
派息比率可能看起来有点奇怪，但原因是我们在Blackstone真正应该关注的主要指标是可分配收益。不过，你会注意到的一点是，这些股息派发在历史上逐年经历了相当大的波动。为什么会这样？
好，我们再一次需要确保总体上理解其商业模式。Blackstone是全球最大的另类资产管理公司，投资于私募股权、房地产、信贷、基础设施及其他另类投资。
The distribution ratios may seem a bit strange , but the reason is that the main metric we should be concerned about at Blackstone is distributable earnings. However, one thing you will notice is that these dividend payouts have historically experienced considerable fluctuations year after year.
Why does this happen? Okay, once again, we need to make sure we understand the business model in general. Blackstone is the world’s largest alternative asset manager, with investments in private equity, real estate, credit, infrastructure and other alternative investments.
Bondson提出的论点是，Blackstone产生底层现金的能力在持续改善，尽管估值反映了市场中一些更广泛的不确定性。例如，他们宣布第二季度费用相关收益增长22%，可分配收益增长26%。
可分配收益为每股1.52，而费用相关收益为每股1.43。
Bondson made the argument that Blackstone's ability to generate underlying cash continues to improve, even though the valuation reflects some of the broader uncertainty in the market.
For example, they announced a 22% increase in fee-related earnings and a 26% increase in distributable earnings in the second quarter. Distributable earnings amounted to 1.52 per share, while fee- related earnings amounted to 1.43 per share.
这一点很重要，因为，再次问，他们的股息派发为什么会波动？如果你深入研究他们2026年第二季度的财报，仔细看看其中关于股息政策的表述。就在这里。Blackstone打算向普通股股东支付季度股息，金额约为Blackstone可分派利润份额的85%。
因此，他们将其可分派利润的一定比例作为股息派发，通常约为85%。这样一来，我们为什么会看到这些分派随着时间出现一些波动就说得通了。出于这个原因，我们看到底层可分配收益增长是非常重要的。
This is important because, again, why do their dividend payments fluctuate ? Well, if you delve into their second-quarter 2026 earnings statement, take a closer look at what it says about their dividend policy.
Right here. Blackstone intends to pay quarterly dividends to ordinary shareholders representing approximately 85% of Blackstone’s share of distributable profits . Therefore, they pay out a certain percentage of their distributable profits as dividends, usually around 85%.
Suddenly, it makes sense why we see these distributions experiencing some fluctuations over time. For this reason, it is very important that we see growth in underlying distributable earnings.
关于Blackstone另一个有趣的视角是当我们思考人工智能时，因为他们显然不是一只传统的人工智能股票，但他们已成为这轮扩张中基础设施部分的重大受益者。例如，管理层还表示，第二季度其投资价值增幅最大的10项中有9项与人工智能相关。
其专用基础设施平台的价值在本季度增长了7.2%，过去一年增长了29%。而其QTS数据中心业务实际上是整个公司增长的最大驱动力。这对Blackstone来说是一个巨大的优势，因为他们通常不必去预测最终哪种人工智能模型会胜出。
他们将继续总体上获得对人工智能以及市场整体增长的敞口。
The other interesting angle regarding Blackstone is when we think about artificial intelligence, because they are clearly not a traditional AI stock, but they have become a major beneficiary of the infrastructure portion of this expansion.
For example, the management also stated that nine of the top 10 increases in the value of its investments in the second quarter were related to artificial intelligence. The value of its dedicated infrastructure platform has increased by 7.2% during the quarter and 29% over the past year.
While its QTS data center business was in fact the biggest driver of growth across the company. This is a huge advantage for Blackstone, because they generally do not necessarily have to predict which AI model will ultimately win.
They will continue to gain exposure to artificial intelligence in general and to the overall growth of the market.
因此，如果我们现在从估值角度来看Blackstone，它的交易价格远低于其历史上的交易水平，至少在市盈率基础上是如此。前瞻性来看，与其五年平均值相比约有20%的折价。基于过去十二个月，约有25%的折价。
Therefore, if we consider Blackstone now from a valuation perspective , it is trading at a much lower price than it has historically traded, at least on a price-to-earnings ratio basis .
A forward-looking view with a discount of approximately 20% compared to its five- year average. Based on the past twelve months, there is a discount of approximately 25%.
前瞻性来看，与其五年平均值相比约有20%的折价。因此，这只股票绝对值得列入你的观察名单。只要确保你深入理解其实际商业模式，以及那些分派为什么会随着时间略有波动。
A forward-looking view with a discount of approximately 20% compared to its five-year average. Therefore, this stock is definitely worth putting on your watchlist. Just make sure you have a deep understanding of the actual business model and why those distributions fluctuate a little over time.
这个频道对 $BX 的历次判断
Dividendology 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。