CAKE是一个看涨论点，由Flower Child的13%同店销售增长和上升的自由现金流驱动，这支撑了当前20多倍的估值。
逐段跳播
但有一个王者，总得有一个王者。这个王者就是Cheesecake Factory。看看那个三个月的走势。80个百分点，女士们先生们。Cheesecake Factory过去三个月上涨了80%，真是见鬼了。天哪。这可不是开玩笑的。
But there's one king has always got to be a king. And the king is Cheesecake Factory. Look at that threemonth move. 80 percentage points, ladies and gentlemen. Cheesecake Factory is up 80% the past three flipping flapjacking months. Holy smokes. Is that ain't no dang joke.
今天我们要讲的第四个主题是，我想解释为什么Cake的股票涨得这么疯狂，因为人们看到那个，就会想，这怎么可能是史上最伟大的股票，对吧？过去3个月上涨80%。在过去3个月的时间里，它跑赢了你能想到的任何东西。
这到底是怎么回事？有一些根本性的变化，我需要解释一下那里发生了什么，以便每个人都能在更高的层面上理解。
Fourth subject we'll get in here today is I want to explain why Cake stock has gone so insane cuz people look at that and like how is that like the greatest stock ever, right? 80% the past 3 months. It's outperforming like anything you pretty much think of over the past 3 month span. Like what is going on there? There's some fundamental changes I need to explain what's going on there so everybody can understand that on a higher level.
接下来，让我们谈谈Cake。我要对这只股票做什么，以及为什么这只股票涨得这么疯狂，对吧？因为我认为人们不理解，但Cake的商业模式发生了根本性的变化。所以，这只股票表现非常好。
公开账户上涨了21.3万美元。不包括从股票中获得的股息。对吧？真是厉害。真是厉害。
Next up here, let's talk about Cake. What I'm going to do with this stock and why this stock has gone so insane, right? Because I don't think people understand it, but there's been a fundamental change in Cake's business model. So, this stock's done very well. Up $213,000 in the public account. does not include dividends received from the stock. Right? What a banger. What a banger.
但如果你了解我，也了解Cake，而且我在过去几年里一直在谈论这只股票，你知道，我是这样解释的。我把这家公司分解得很简单。他们有Cheesecake Factory这个品牌。它是一台ATM机。
他们现在不会开很多Cheesecake Factory的门店。可能每年只有几家。
But if you know me and you know Cake and I've talked about the stock for the last several years, you know, I explain it like this. I break the company down very simple. They have the Cheesecake Factory concept. It's an ATM machine. They don't grow a lot of locations of Cheesecake Factory nowadays. It might be a few a
但如果你知道我在谈论Cheesecake Factory时所说的，最大的机会就在这里，是一家叫Flowerchild的公司，对吧？这是他们拥有的一个品牌，这是最大的机会。公司说他们未来有潜力开700家国内门店。
目前，这个品牌只有44家门店。现在，这家公司的另一个好处是，利润率设置得非常好，对吧？而且有很大一部分业务是外卖业务，对吧？所以，利润率很高，外卖业务很多。44家门店。现在，他们说未来要开到700家，对吧？
but if you know what I talk about in regards to Cheesecake Factory the biggest opportunity is right here it's a company named Flowerchild right it's a brand they own here this is the opportunity by a mile. The company's talking about they have the potential for 700 domestic locations over time. Currently, this particular brand only has 44 locations. Now, the other beautiful thing with this company is the margins set up to be phenomenal for this company, right? And you have a significant amount of the business is to go business, right? So, great margins, a lot of to-go business. 44 locations. Right now, they're talking about going to 700 over time, right?
但Flower Child最新的根本性改变游戏规则的事情发生在本季度。他们报告的同店销售额同比增长了13%。这是在去年同期5%的数字之后出现的。13%是一个改变游戏规则的数字。你很少看到有公司能取得这样的同店增长。
But the newest fundamental game changer that happened for Flower Child was in this most recent quarter. They reported comp sales of 13% growth on a year-over-year basis. Now, it comes after a 5% number the same time last year. The 13% is a gamecher. The you haven't seen many companies ever put up that sort of comp.
然后我们开始从Flowerchild看到那个13%的数字，那太疯狂了，太疯狂了，他们在去年同期5%的同店增长之后取得了那个数字，这太疯狂了，对吧？所以当我看到Cake时，我看到的是一个持续增长的业务模式，对吧？
我看到稳定的毛利率略低于80%。我看到一家净利润率上升的公司，我看到一家每股收益未来几年将大幅增长的公司，对吧？此外，看看自由现金流和每股自由现金流。这正是我们希望看到的方向，对吧？
不像其他公司，那些曾经像这样的大科技公司，Cheesecake真的做到了，对吧？他们真的做到了。所以我们从这家公司获得越来越多的现金，然后他们可以投资更多的门店，对吧？并进行股票回购，增加股息等等。
and then we're starting to see that from Flowerchild 13% number that's that's insane insane that they put up that number coming off of a 5% comp that you know the same time last year like that's insane right so when I look at cake I see a consistent business model of growth, right? I see stable gross margins just under 80%. I see a company that's uptick in their net margins and I see a company that's earnings per share set to boom for years to go in the future, right? Additionally, look at the free cash flow and the free cash flow per share. This is going the way we want to see it go, right? Unlike the other companies, the big techs that used to be like this, like Cheesecake really does it, right? They really do it. And so we're pouring off more and more and more money from this company which then they can invest into more and more locations, right? And do share buybacks and increase dividends and all those sorts of things.
现在，对Cake唯一的阻力可能是估值肯定上升了，市盈率现在在20多倍。对吧？听着，在我看来，这并不差。当你考虑到商业模式的安全性，因为Cheesecake品牌和它的ATM机效应，这完全不差，对吧？
当你考虑到他们有两个品牌在美国各地扩张，还有几个品牌在测试阶段，对吧？而且当你考虑到Flower Child是我认为自Chipotle以来餐饮行业最令人兴奋的品牌，
Right now the might be the only push back for cake is the valuation has definitely risen in regards to stock P ratios now in the mid20s. Right? Listen, that's not bad in my personal opinion. That's not bad at all when you consider the safety of the business model because of the Cheesecake brand and the ATM of that. Right? When you consider they got two concepts are expanding all over the United States of America with several concepts in testing phase, right? And when you consider Flower Child's the most exciting concept to the restaurant category in my opinion since Chipotle,
所以，看看经营现金流，这家公司创了历史新高。所以，Cheesecake，不可思议的公司，对吧，各位。短期内有很多事情。还会有更多。到处都是煎饼。
And so, look at the operating cash flow, all-time highs for this company. So, cheesecake, incredible company, right, folks. Lot going on short term. There's going to be a lot more. It's going to be flapjacks all over the place.
这个频道对 $CAKE 的历次判断
Financial Education 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。