CAKE 跌破 100 美元对长期持有者而言是买入机会，因为多品牌（Flower Child/North Italia）的门店数量增长潜力将超过短期利润率风险。
逐段跳播
世界上最伟大的股票。Cheesecake Factory。或者我们该叫它Cheesecake Factory今天在这里下跌了27,000美元。
the greatest stock in the world. Cheesecake Factory. Or shall we call it Cheesecake Factory down $27,000 here today.
所以Cheesecake Factory那糟糕的走势被老牌的AMD平衡掉了。
So that horrible move from the cake got balanced out with the good old AMD.
第一，我们要谈谈Cheesecake Factory。我们要谈的是这只股票该不该买？这只股票终于又跌破100了。所以，我想我们应该谈谈这个。
Number one, we're going to talk about Cheesecake Factory. We're going to talk about is the stock a buy or not? The stock's finally under 100 again. So, I thought we'd talk about that.
好了，女士们先生们。那么，Cheesecake Factory。上一次这只股票跌破100美元还是在7月，对吧？7月。之后它涨到100以上，基本上就一直待在那里，对吧？所以，现在这个时候又跌回100以下了。
All righty, ladies and gentlemen. So, cheesecake factory. Last time the stock was under $100 was way back uh in July, right? July. And then after that, it went above 100 and basically it's been there ever since, right? So, back under 100 now at this point in time.
今天，Cheesecake Factory被Wells Fargo维持等权重评级。所以，他们把目标价从90上调到105，但我的意思是，那正是这只股票刚刚所在的位置，对吧？所以那有点像，基本上他们差不多是在说这只股票没有上涨空间。
就像如果你要给出105美元的目标价，而股票就在105美元左右，那那不算什么，对吧？所以这可能对股票产生了负面影响。
Here today, Cheesecake Factory maintained at equal weight by Wells Fargo. So, they raised their price target to 105 from 90, but I mean that's where the stock just was, right? And so that was kind of like uh like basically they're kind of like almost saying like there's no upside in the stock.
Like if you're going to slap a 105 price target and the stock's around 105 like uh that's that's nothing, right? So that could have negatively affected the stock.
为什么，为什么我们需要为此惊慌？这简直太荒谬了，对吧？我的意思是，你早在5月就可以为此惊慌，对吧？然后Cheesecake在那之后走出了一波绝对的猛涨。所以，我会称之为愚蠢的短期东西。
非常非常愚蠢的短期东西，对股票产生负面影响，把股票拉下来，对吧？
why like why do we need to freak out about this? Like like this is just ridiculous, right? And I mean you could have freaked out about this back in May, right? And then Cheesecake went on an absolute ripper rally after that.
So, it's just silly short-term stuff is what I would call it. Very, very silly short-term stuff that negatively affects stocks and brings the stocks down, right?
它甚至延伸到化肥产品，就像一件事接着一件事接着一件事。就像多米诺骨牌效应，对吧？所以接下来，你就陷入这样一种处境：所有东西都比你也许能在菜单上抵消的更贵。而如果同时消费者又处于稍弱的状态，这可能导致你的利润率下降。
2022年Cheesecake Factory就发生了这种情况。如果我没记错的话，Cheesecake Factory的利润率到2023年下降了不少，基本上，那正是我开始真正买入我的仓位的时候，就是2023年，对吧，当时他们的利润率跌得很惨，被通胀切得七零八落。
it leads into even fertilizer products and like like it's just thing after thing after thing. It's like a domino effect, right? And so next thing you know, you're stuck in this situation where everything's more expensive than maybe you're able to offset in the menu.
And if at the same time the consumer's a little in a weaker spot, it could lead you to lower margins. And that happened at Cheesecake Factory back in 2022. GK Factory margins went down quite a bit into 2023 if I recall and essentially and that's when I started really buying my position is 2023 right and their margins were down bad at that particular time and they got slice and dice by inflation
现在，说到Cheesecake Factory，这里有机会，对吧？嗯，事情是这样的。如果你看Cheesecake Factory的远期市盈率，大约是21。对吧？现在，我们可以争论说现实中它实际上可能比这更低。
我们也可以争论说它可能比这更高，对吧？比如说通胀把消费者切得七零八落。经营业务的成本更贵了，对吧？而他们在接下来几个季度无法抵消这一点。你可以论证说他们的盈利能力可能低于你的预期。所以也许远期市盈率实际上是24或25，对吧？
Right now, when it comes to Cheesecake Factories, there are an opportunity here, right? Well, here's the thing. If you look at Cheesecake Factories forward P, it's around a 21.
Right? Now, we could debate that maybe it's actually lower in reality than that. We could debate that maybe it's higher than that, right? Like let's say inflation slice and dice the consumer.
Uh the cost of running the business is more expensive, right? And they can't offset that over the next couple quarters. You could make an argument that maybe they're less profitable than than what you would expect.
And so maybe the forward P is actually like 24 or 25, right?
但故事的寓意是，假设这是准确的。远期市盈率21，对吧？嗯，事情是这样的。当你想到Cheesecake Factory时，对吧，他们有我谈到的那种令人难以置信的长期增长，对吧？就像未来十年的增长，对吧？
Cheesecake Factory，他们的门店数量不会增长太多。他们会增长门店，但不会太多。每年2%到3%，对吧？但North Italia，他们说要每年增长门店20%。Flowerchild，每年20%。
Fox Restaurant Concepts，他们其他那些，你知道，一堆不同的连锁餐厅，他们正在尝试，其中许多非常成功。那是每年10%到15%的门店增长，对吧？那是一家未来10年以上都有增长的公司，对吧？
But the moral of the story is let's say this is accurate. Forward P of 21, right? Well, here's the thing. When you think about Cheesecake Factory, right, they have this unbelievable long-term growth that I talk about, right?
Like next decade of growth ahead, right? Cheesecake Factory, they're not going to grow units much there. They will grow units, but not much. 2 to 3% a year, right? But North Italia are talking about growing units 20% a year.
Flowerchild, 20% a year. Fox Restaurant Concepts, their other uh you know, bunch of different restaurant chains that they're trying out that many are highly successful. That's 10 to 15% annual unit growth, right?
That's a company that's got the next 10 plus years of growth ahead, right?
而你看像Flowerchild，Flowerchild可以做出非常相似的每平方英尺销售额，但他们的店面规模小得多，对吧？所以建一家Flower Child的成本要低得多，而且你可以把它放进多得多的地点。
所以如果你看Flower Child，他们谈到北美有70个，抱歉，70个，700个，700个Flower Child门店的市场潜力，对吧？相比之下Cheesecake Factory是300家。
所以，而且Flower Child的同店销售数据简直疯狂。比如他们最近的同店销售，如果我没记错的话，大约是13%。那简直是闻所未闻。那太惊人了。简直是荒谬的数字，对吧？
And you look at like Flowerchild, Flowerchild can put up a very similar sales per square foot, but they're doing in a much smaller size, right? And so it doesn't cost nearly as much to build a Flower Child and you can fit them in a lot more locations.
And so if you look at Flower Child, they're talking about a market potential in North America of 70 or excuse me 70 700 700 Flower Child locations, right? Versus Cheesecake Factories 300.
And so and the Flower Child comps are insane. Like their most recent comps were, if I recall, was like 13%. Like that's that's unheard of. That's astonishing. Just ridiculous numbers, right?
所以Flowerchild现在处于这样一个位置：如果他们未来几年继续加速同店销售，然后你就有这种增长跑道。我的意思是，他们现在有44家Flower Child，而他们说要开到700家。
700家，光这一点就比公司正在做的任何事情都大。对吧。然后你有North Italia。North Italia有51家门店。他们说要随着时间推移开到200家。然后是Culinary Dropout、The Henry，那些也有巨大的长期机会，不像Flower Child和North Italia那样，但它们肯定有巨大的长期机会，也许甚至Blanco也是。所以Cheesecake做对了。
And so Flowerchild is in a position here where if they keep accelerating the comps over the next few years and then you have this sort of runway of growth. I mean they have 44 Flower Childs right now and they're talking about going to 700. 700 like that alone is bigger than anything the company has going on.
Right. Then you have North Italia. North Italia's 51 locations. They're talking about taking that to 200 over time. And then the culinary dropout, the Henry, those have huge long-term opportunities as well, not like the flower child in North Talia, but they definitely have big long-term opportunities, maybe even Blanco as well. And so Cheesecake's like got it right.
所以我看这件事的方式是：这是不是一个买入 Cheesecake Factory 股票的机会？听着，如果你关注的是这样一家公司的长期表现，那么这只股票任何短期的疲软都需要被利用起来。
所以如果股价是 90 美元、80 美元、70 美元、60 美元，这区间里的任何价位，对吧？如果你真的是这家公司的信徒，你相信几年后它会成为一只几百美元的股票，因为这条增长跑道，以及他们在利润率上、在盈利能力上能走到哪里，等等，对吧？
你猜怎么着？我们还有很长很长的路要走。这一只还有很长的路要走。所以你不能太纠结于短期。
And so the way I look at this, is this an opportunity to buy Cheesecake Factory stock? Listen, if you're focused on a company like this for the long term, any short-term weakness in the stock needs to be taken advantage of.
So if the stock's 90 bucks, 80 bucks, 70 bucks, 60 bucks, anything in there, right? you you know if you're really a believer of this company, you believe this is going to be a stock that is several hundred dollars years from now because of this runway of growth and where they could take margins, where they could take profitability, etc., right?
Uh guess what? Like we got a long long flipping flapjack and way to go. A long way to go in regards to this one. So you can't get too caught up in the short term.
听着，所有这些连锁企业都是花了几十年才建起来的，对吧？而它们在短期内都经历过无数的烂事。所有都是。那么多破事，那么多胡扯，你想想，它们不得不经历的那些通胀时期，或者通缩时期，或者衰退，或者诉讼，或者健康恐慌。
我是说，想一想这一点。然而，从长期来看，这些公司都变成了巨头。所以每当你在考虑这样一类公司，它们前面有一条 10 年以上的增长跑道时，你就要明白，这不会是 Cheesecake 最后一次经历烂事。
它们还会经历更多。而作为一名长期投资者，你必须对此坦然接受。
Listen, all these chains got built out over several decades, right? And all them had countless crap to go through in the short term. All of them. so much BS, so much baloney, you know, like like think about, you know, all the the, you know, inflationary times they had to go through or deflationary times or recessions or lawsuits or health scares.
I mean, think about that for a moment. And yet, you know, over the long term, these became massive companies. And so whenever you're thinking about companies like this that have a, you know, a 10year plus runway of growth ahead, like just understand there's going to this is not the last time Cheesecake's going to go through crap.
They're going to go through a lot more. And as a long-term investor, you have to be okay with that.
这个频道对 $CAKE 的历次判断
Financial Education 在这只股票上共 5 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。