CHWY被低估；公允价值为34美元，而当前价格约为23美元，意味着未来12-18个月约有45%的上涨空间。
逐段跳播
6月10日，Chewy告知投资者其拥有超过2150万客户，同比增长3.6%。每位活跃客户的净销售额增至597美元。
On June 10th, Chewy informed investors it boasted over 21.5 million customers. That was up 3.6% year-over-year. And the net sales per active customer increased to $597.
Chewy多次告知投资者，客户在平台上留存时间越长，消费越多。这可以理解，因为他们对平台及其提供的产品和服务的熟悉度提高。
Chewy has multiple times informed investors that the longer Chewy keeps a customer, the more they spend on the platform. And that's understandable because they become more familiar with the platform and the products and services that's being offered.
此外，Chewy正在扩展兽医护理业务，这是一个高利润、高消费且宠物主人忠诚度高的品类。
Additionally, Chewy is expanding into veterinary care, which is a high-margin, high-spend category with high loyalty from pet parents.
但这一切是否使Chewy股票成为买入机会？在过去12个月中，Chewy报告营收128亿美元，较2019年的30亿美元增长约4倍。
But does all of this make Chewy stock a buying opportunity? So, over the trailing 12-month period, Chewy reported $12.8 billion in revenue. That's up roughly 4x from 2019 when it reported $3 billion in revenue.
总体而言，Chewy估计美国宠物市场年销售额超过1000亿美元，这还不包括兽医市场，而兽医市场可能为这一总可寻址市场增加可观的金额。
Overall, Chewy has estimated the pet market in the United States at over $100 billion in annual sales. That's not including the veterinary market, and that could add significant sums to that total addressable market.
Chewy是一家电子商务零售商，其零售产品仅通过线上运营。尽管它正在扩展兽医护理，但主要通过远程医疗和与现有诊所的合作关系进行。近期在该品类的收购也可能扩大公司在该品类的实体存在，这是一个高利润业务。
Chewy is an e-commerce retailer, so it only has online operations for its retail products. Even though it's expanding into veterinary care, it's doing most of it through telehealth and relationships with existing clinics. The recent acquisition in the category could also expand the company's physical presence in this category, which is a high-margin business.
Chewy的管理团队在长期提升盈利能力方面表现出色。其2.58%的营业利润率并不算高，但改善趋势是好的。
Chewy's management team has done an excellent job boosting profitability over the long term. At 2.58% its operating profit margin is not all that great, but the trend of improvement is.
这是一个资本密集型商业模式，固定资产沉重。Chewy拥有其在平台上销售的许多库存，并且拥有并运营物流网络，将产品送达美国和加拿大（正在扩展）的宠物主人。
This is a capital-intensive business model, heavy fixed assets. Chewy owns a lot of the inventory it sells on the platform, plus it owns and operates the logistics networks to the products to pet parents in the United States and expanding into Canada.
这是一个固定资本沉重的商业模式，风险高，但潜在回报也更高。使Chewy能够提高利润率的一个因素是平台上很大比例的销售是经常性销售，即客户订购商品并要求每两周、每月或每两个月配送一次。
这使得Chewy能够更了解客户想要什么、何时需要以及需要配送到哪里。这些信息在业务运营中发挥着巨大作用。
That's a heavy fixed capital business model. It has high risk, but it also has higher reward potential. One of the factors that allows Chewy to improve margins is a large percentage of the sales on the platform are recurring, meaning customers order something and request that order to be delivered every 2 weeks or every month or every 2 months. That allows Chewy to have more information about what its customers want, when those customers want, and where those customers need to be delivered. That information plays a huge role in business operations.
这降低了Chewy创建和订购产品以及与供应链合作以按时将产品送达的风险，从而使业务运营更有效。根据我对该公司过去7年左右的研究，Chewy的管理团队在业务模式执行方面也高于平均水平。
It makes it less risky for Chewy to create and order products, to work with its supply chain in order to get those products where they need to be on time. And that's allowing the business to operate more effectively. Chewy's management team has also been above average in terms of executing on the business model according to my research on the company over the previous 7 years or so.
投入资本回报率超过26%。当企业采用固定资本沉重或资本资产沉重的商业模式时，这一点尤为重要和令人鼓舞。这不是轻资产商业模式。因此，对于采用这种模式运营的企业，投入资本回报率变得更加重要。
26%的ROIC与WACC之比超过1比1，并接近2比1。事实上，我计算出Chewy的加权平均资本成本为12.7%，贝塔值为1.43。因此，如果我们看26.25%除以12.69%，可以看到公司的ROIC与WACC之比约为2比1，略高于2比1，这是一个极好的比率，尤其对于仍处于早期增长阶段的企业。
The returns on invested capital reached over 26%. And that's especially more important and encouraging when a business operates with the heavy fixed capital or heavy capital asset business model. It's not an asset light business model. And so, the return on invested capital becomes more important for businesses that operate utilizing this model. At 26% the ROIC to WACC ratio is more than one to one and it's approaching over two to one. In fact, I calculated a weighted average cost of capital at 12.7% for Chewy with a beta at 1.43. And so, if we look at 26.25% divided by 12.69%, you can see the company's ROIC to WACC ratio is just about two to one, a little over two to one, which is an excellent ratio especially for a business that's still in its early growth stage.
总体而言，我计算出Chewy股票的合理价值为每股34美元，而其当前市场价格略高于23美元。这意味着将市场价格与合理价值相比，未来12至18个月有约45%的上涨空间。因此，使用我的贴现现金流模型，估值看起来便宜。
使用远期市盈率，它看起来也便宜。Chewy的远期市盈率为12.6，对于这种具有这种上涨潜力的业务来说相对便宜。
Overall, I calculated a fair value for Chewy stock at $34 per share and its current market price is just over 23. That means comparing the market price with the fair value leaves about 45% upside over the next 12 to 18-month period. So, the valuation looked cheap using my discounted cash flow model. And using the forward price to earnings ratio, it also looks cheap. Chewy is trading at a forward PE of 12.6, which is relatively cheap for this kind of business with this kind of upside.
因此，回答我在标题中提出的问题，是的，我确实认为Chewy股票在当前市场价格和水平下是一个买入机会。我对这一评级有相对中等的信心，中等信心水平。在Chewy，我对我的买入评级有中等信心水平。
So, to answer the question I posed in the headline, yes, I do think Chewy stock is a buying opportunity at this market price at these levels. And I have a relatively medium conviction, a medium confidence level on this ranking. At Chewy, I have a medium confidence level on my buy ranking.
这个频道对 $CHWY 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。