Ciena 受 AI 驱动增长强劲，但因估值倍数偏高、且高度依赖少数客户，加之行业历来波动较大，风险不容忽视。
逐段跳播
第四，网络。Sienna，股票代码 CN。AI 并不是在一台计算机上训练的，它要用成千上万台计算机，通过玻璃光纤电缆即时互相通信。Sienna 制造的就是以光速传输所有这些数据的设备。
AI 规模越大，这类网络的需求就越多。风险在于：这跟 Global Crossing 完全属于同一个行业，那个行业以巨大的繁荣和巨大的崩盘而闻名，而且它严重依赖仅仅少数几个超大客户。
Fourth, the network. Sienna, ticker CN. AI isn't trained on one computer. It uses thousands of them talking to each other instantly over glass fiber cables. Sienna makes the gear that carries all that data at the speed of light.
Bigger AI means a lot more of this networking. The risk. This is exactly the same industry as global crossing, famous for giant booms and giant buss, and it relies heavily on just a couple of massive customers.
好，下一个。Sienna，我们的网络公司。这大概是整组里最干净的 AI 故事。它刚刚公布财报，营收增长 37%，利润飙升超过 200%。其核心光网络业务增长约 46%。管理层把全年预测上调至 64.2 亿，全年增长约 35%。
它还表示，AI 正在推动一波又一波的新支出。但请记住本视频前面讲过的教训：这跟曾经爆掉过一次的是同一类行业。而且这家公司仅两个客户就贡献了超过 40% 的营收。那么，与 25 年前相比，这次真的不一样吗？
All right, next. Sienna, our networking company. This is probably the cleanest AI story of the whole group. It just reported earnings and revenue grew 37% while its profits soared over 200%.
Its core optical networking business grew about 46%. Management raised its fullear forecast to 6.42 billion, roughly 35% growth for the year. And it has said that AI is driving wave after wave of new spending.
But remember the lesson from earlier in this video. This is the same type of industry that blew up once before. And just two customers for this company make up over 40% of its revenue.
So is it truly different this time versus 25 years ago.
所以是时候打开来看了。这就是 Sienna Corp。市值恰好 500 亿美元。还有一点我很喜欢，各位，它的企业价值是 52.3，也就是说只有 23 亿美元的债务。对照它一年 8 亿美元的自由现金流，这很不错，但它 5 年的平均值是 315。
所以这说明这家公司近来增长了多少。它的售价是自由现金流的 61 倍，是 5 年自由现金流的 160 倍。它过去 10 年的利润率为 8.5%，去年为 10.9%，过去 5 年为 6%。
资本回报率在改善。5 年平均为 7%，一年为 14.2。各位，营收增长其实让我有点意外，没有我原本以为的那么好。过去 3 年是 12.5%，过去 5 年每年 12%，过去 10 年是 8.9%。
所以很明显，真正的增长出现在最近几个季度，因为我们看到它的营收同比增长了多少。
So it's time to open up. So here is Sienna Corp. Exactly $50 billion market cap business. And something I love guys, their enterprise value is 52.3. That's only $2.3 billion of debt.
That's great when looking at their one-year free cash flow of $800 million, but their 5-year average is 315. So, it shows how much this company has grown as of late. It is selling for 61 times free cash flow.
It is selling for 160 times the 5-year free cash flow. Its profit in the last 10 years was 8 and a half%, last year 10.9 and the last 5 years 6%. Returns on capital getting better. 5-year average was 7%.
One year is 14.2. And guys, I'm actually surprised by the revenue growth. It's not as great as I would have thought. It's 12.5% for the last 3 years, 12% a year for the last 5, 8.9% for the last 10 years.
So, obviously, the real growth has come in the last few quarters because we saw how much their revenue is up year-over-year.
我们把这八大支柱调出来。等等。好，记住这一个基于过去五年较低的自由现金流。回报，也就是 ROIC，是基于五年的。这里有很多误导性的数据。如果你相信未来 5 年会跟最近一年相似甚至更高，那就是我们做这类事情时总要问自己的问题。
Let's pull up these eight pillars. Wait. Okay, remember this one's based on lower free cash flow the last five years. The return the ROIC is based on five years. There's a lot of misleading data here.
If you believe that the next 5 years is going to look similar to the recent year and higher. That's the question we always have to ask ourselves when we're doing these kind of things.
那么，我们来看看分析师的预测。分析师，哇。看看这个。分析师预计未来七年利润将从每股 670 增长到 23 美元。哇，未来七年增长三倍多，营收未来七年从 6.46 增长到 14.6。所以是翻倍以上。
So, let's look at analyst estimates here. Analysts Oh, wow. Look at this. Analysts have profit growing from 670 per share to $23 over the next seven years. Wowza, that's three time over three times growth over the next seven years and revenue growing from 6.46 to 14.6 over the next seven years. So over double there.
好，那我们打开股票分析工具。各位，我以前做过这家公司。就沿用我原来的数字吧。我用了 4%、9% 和 14% 的营收增长。我用了 7%、8% 和 9% 的利润和自由现金流，因为看这里，是的，最近它有所偏斜，但我想知道这是不是因为眼下 AI 正在发生的事。所以，他们在要求更高的价格，因此利润率更高。
All right, so let's go to our stock analyzer tool. So guys, I've done this company before. Let's stick with my old numbers. I did 4, 9, and 14% revenue growth. I did seven, eight, and nine% profit and free cash flow because look at it right here.
Yes, recently it's been skewed, but I wonder if it's because of what's going on right now in AI. So, they're demanding higher prices and therefore more margin.
接下来，我会给出什么利润？10 年后我会给这家公司什么市盈率？各位，在去年之前，资本回报率并不好。所以，我实际上会把它调低一点。我实际上会用 14、17 和 20。可能看起来偏低，但如果这些资本回报率上不去，它就得保持更低。
然后还是我那个 9.5% 的回报率。我按下分析按钮。砰。我得到低价 44，高价 150，中间价 83。你可能觉得我太保守了，但即使你把数字调好一点，这些结果无论如何还是会那样。
Next, what profit would I show? What PE would I assign to this company 10 years from now? Guys, the returns on capital aren't great before this last year. So, I'm actually going to make this a little bit lower.
I'm actually going to go 14, 17, and 20. might seem low, but if these returns on capitals don't get up there, it's got to stay lower. And then again, my 9 and a half% return. I hit the analyze button.
Boom. I have a low price of 44, high price of 150, middle price of 83. You might think I was being too conservative, but even if you make your numbers a little bit better, these are still going to be read anyhow.
这个频道对 $CIEN 的历次判断
Everything Money 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。