应避免长期持有 CLX；缺乏增长且派息比率不可持续（TTM 自由现金流派息率达 149%），尽管股息率较高，仍不是理想的持仓。
逐段跳播
我今天要谈的第四只股票是Clorox Company，股票代码CLX，这只股票过去5年表现糟糕，下跌了49%。过去一年又下跌了32%。这是52周低点，而这是另一只长期股息股，每年都在提高股息支付。
它是一家消费巨头，拥有许多消费品牌，你在整个杂货店里都能看到它们。许多这类消费必需品公司都是股息贵族和股息之王。它就是其中之一。
Stock number four I'm going to talk today is the Clorox Company, ticker symbol CLX, and this stock has done terrible over the past 5 years. 49% it's down. It's down another 32% over the past year.
That's 52-week low, and this is another long-term dividend stock that's been raising their dividend payment every single year. It's a consumer giant. They have a lot of consumer brands.
You'll see them throughout the grocery store. A lot of these consumer staples are dividend aristocrats and dividend kings. This is one of them.
现在说警示信号。股息增长放缓。过去10年上涨了56%，年复合增长率为4.56%。不过过去3年，股息仅上涨了4%，年复合增长率为1.37%。
Now, red flags. Slowing dividend growth. Past 10 years it's up 56% or 4.56% CAGR. Over the past 3 years though, the dividend's only up 4% from 1.37% CAGR.
另一面是，它的股息率处于历史高位，5.97%，略低于6%，是过去10年最高，也是自2007年以来历史最高。过去5年的股息率中位数为3.33%。所以我们远高于这一水平。
Flip side of that is it's trading at a historically high dividend yield, 5.97% just under 6% highest over the past 10 years, highest all-time since 2007. The median dividend yield over the past 5 years is 3.33%. So, we're well above that.
现在来看警示信号。自由现金流派息率近年来有很多年都显得不可持续。这就是股息增长缺失的原因。他们的现金流没有增长，就无法提高股息。2022 年为 106%，2024 年为 123%，2026 年为 148%。而在过去 12 个月里，这一比率为 149%。
Now, the red flags. Free cash flow payout ratio has had many years recently where it looked unsustainable. That's why the dividend growth isn't there. They're not having growth in their cash flow.
They can't grow the dividend. It was 106% 2022, 123% 2024, 148% 2026. And over the trailing 12 months it's 149%.
如果从盈利派息率来看，也就是按 GAAP 每股收益计算，情况大致相同，同样是那些糟糕的年份。2022 年为 123%，2023 年为 391，2024 年为 212，2026 年为 102。
If you look at it based on earnings payout ratio, so GAAP earnings per share, same story kind of where it was bad years. 123% 2022, 391 2023, 2024 212, 2026 102.
所以，我不确定你会看到股息被削减，因为它的派息历史摆在那里。管理层会尽可能长久地维持下去，但这项业务并没有在增长。
So, I'm not sure you're going to get a dividend cut because of its a history of payments. Management is going to want to hold on to this as long as they can, but this business is not growing.
你只要看自由现金流就能看出来。它比 2002 年时还要低，这就是我不想长期持有这类股票的原因。如果你想跑赢标普 500，你就必须增长。你必须让增长站在你这一边。
You can just see free cash flow. It's lower than it was in 2002, and that's why I don't want to be in these kinds of stocks long-term. If you're trying to beat the S&P 500, you have to be growing. You have to have growth on your side.
有时候价值型和股息型投资者会忘记投资中的这一部分。当然，如果你以极低的价格买入一只股票，你可以从中获得不错的回报，尤其是当你以很高的安全边际买入时。但即便如此，这也不意味着你之后就能持有它 20 年。
And sometimes value and dividend investors, they forget about that part of investing. Now, yes, if you buy a stock cheap as hell, you can get good returns on it, especially if you buy it with a high margin of safety.
But even then, that doesn't mean you can hold it for 20 years after that.
如果我们回到 2000 年，即使把股息再投资，复合年增长率也只有 6.78%。回到 80 年代会好得多，但 1980 年代的这家公司已经和当时不同了，当时的估值也不一样。
And if we go back to 2000, even with dividends reinvested, the compound annual growth rate is 6.78%. Now, it's much better going back to the '80s, but this is a different company in the 1980s than it was at a different valuation back then.
所以，你可以在 Clorox 的公允价值图中看到，如果我们选择自由现金流，尽管股价表现极差，其内在价值仍在下降。所以它实际上看起来并没有那么便宜。按每股收益来看，它看起来稍好一些。
按股息来看也是如此，因为股息还没有下降。但 Clorox 要想表现良好，你需要每股收益增长。
So, you can see in the fair value graph for Clorox, if we have free cash flow selected, despite the stock doing terribly, the intrinsic value is declining. So, it actually doesn't look that cheap.
It looks a little better based on earnings per share. And on dividend cuz the dividend hasn't declined yet. But for Clorox to do well, you need earnings per share growth.
这个频道对 $CLX 的历次判断
Dividend Data 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。