CNHI在行业下行周期中缺乏竞争优势;因低利润率和时机不确定而应回避。
逐段跳播
我们继续,CNH Industrial生产拖拉机和农业机械,过去几年一直稳定,而农业部门在2021年至2022年因过度投资和购买而遭受头痛。周期需要超过6-7年。现在我们仍处于周期的下行阶段。
销售稳定,但由于竞争,利润率在下降。经营现金流显著偏低。最近的盈利显示现金流略好于预期。因此,股价立即小幅上涨。然而,预测仍显示2026年整体市场下降5-10%。他们将有稳定的销售,可能提价。
利润率很低。当利润率好时,他们赚很多钱。你可以看到这里他们略微改善了自由现金流状况。此外,净销售额,这对股价有积极影响。利润略高。然而,一切都归结于作物轮作。这个周期,是的,在好年份他们可以赚20亿,这将推动市值增加100亿。
然而,这意味着增加50%、60%或70%,甚至更多,鉴于农业AI的繁荣。另一方面,这是一种防御性策略,不应与经济衰退相关联。但农业周期何时会转变?2027年?2028年?简而言之,人们可能会说我对这个感到厌倦。
我能找到竞争优势吗?这不是一个可能成功也可能失败的高竞争性赌注。如果我在看这些东西时没有优势,最好找别的。因此,CNH也将退出视野,以澄清一些事情。
So, we continue, CNH Industrial produces tractors and agricultural machinery, and has been stable over the past few years, while this agricultural sector has been suffering from a headache from 2021 to 2022 due to excessive investment and purchases. The course takes more than 6-7 years. And now we are still on the downward side of the cycle. Sales are stable, but margins are declining due to competition. Operating cash flows are significantly low. Recent earnings show that cash flows are slightly better than expected. Therefore, the stock rose slightly immediately. However, forecasts still indicate an overall market decline of 5-10% for 2026. They will have steady sales with potential price increases. The margins are low. When the margins are good, they make good money. And you can see here that they have slightly improved their free cash flow position. Also, net sales, this has a positive impact on the share price. Profits are slightly high. However, it all comes down to the crop rotation. And this cycle, yes, in a good year they can make 2 billion, which will push the market value up by 10 billion. However, this means an increase of 50, 60 or 70%, and possibly more, in light of the agricultural AI boom. On the other hand, it is a defensive strategy where it should not be associated with recession. But when will the agricultural cycle change ? 2027? 2028? Simply put, one might say that I am bored with this. Can I find a competitive advantage? It is not a highly competitive bet that may or may not succeed. If I don't have an advantage when looking at these things, it's better to find something else. Therefore, CNH will also step out of the picture to clarify things a little.
这个频道对 $CNHI 的历次判断
Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。