Coherent 是一项强劲的投资，因其在 6 英寸磷化铟晶圆生产领域的领先地位和产能扩张，但同时也面临高支出和潜在需求放缓的风险。
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Coherent，股票代码 CHR，找到了一种方法，从每片晶圆中制造出四倍多的激光器，而成本却只有一半。
Coherent, ticker symbol CHR, which found a way to make four times more lasers out of every wafer at half the cost.
Coherent 和 Lum 也面临一些严重的风险。数据中心占 Coherence 收入的 70% 以上。
Coherent and Lum also share some serious risks. data centers account for more than 70% of Coherence revenues.
Coherent 上个季度报告收入为 20 亿美元，同比增长 34%，毛利率为 38.5%，比去年高出近 3 个百分点。
Coherent reported $2 billion in revenue last quarter, which is up 34% year-over-year with gross margins of 38.5%, which is almost 3 points higher than last year.
整个财年，他们的调整后每股收益为 5.61 美元，而去年同期为 353 美元。这意味着每股收益同比增长 59%。
For the full fiscal year, their adjusted earnings came in at $5.61 per share versus $353 the year before. That's 59% earnings growth year-over-year.
在过去一年中，Coherence 的数据中心和通信部门创造了 53 亿美元的收入，占其 71 亿美元总收入的绝大部分，而其较老的工业激光业务实际上出现了萎缩。
Coherence data center and communication segment generated $5.3 billion of their 7.1 billion in revenues over the last year, while their older industrial laser business actually shrank.
Coherent 的一个特别之处在于他们是垂直整合的。他们自己制造激光芯片，将其封装成光引擎，并制造这些芯片所用的成品 800G 和 1.6 TBTE 收发器。
One special thing about Coherent is that they're vertically integrated. They make their own laser chips, package them into optical engines, and build the finished 800G and 1.6 TBTE transceivers that those chips go into.
Coherent 将生产转移到 6 英寸晶圆，这使他们能够以大约一半的成本制造四倍多的芯片。
Coherent moved their production to 6-in wafers, which lets them make four times more chips at roughly half the cost.
Coherent 首席执行官指出，他们在 6 英寸生产线上生产的每一种产品的良率实际上都更高。Coherent 预计到今年年底将其磷化铟产量翻一番，然后到 2027 年底再翻一番。
Coherent CEO pointed out that their yields are actually higher on their 6-in lines across every single product that they make on them. Coherent expects to double their indium phosphide output by the end of this year and then double it again by the end of 2027.
Coherent 去年在资本支出上花费了 11 亿美元，而运营现金流约为 8000 万美元。这意味着他们每实际赚到 1 美元，就在芯片生产上花费大约 14 美元。
Coherent spent $1.1 billion on capex over the last year versus about $80 million in cash from operations. That means they spent roughly $14 on chip production for every $1 they actually made.
他们的管理团队表示，对数据中心芯片生产的投资平均回收期约为 18 个月。作为投资者，我非常喜欢 Coherent 的全栈光学方法。
Their management team says that investments into data center chip production have an average payback period of about 18 months. As an investor, I really like Coherent's full stack approach to optics.
得到英伟达的支持并部分持股，降低了未来几年所有这些支出的风险。
being backed and partly owned by Nvidia lowers the risk of all that spending over the next few years.
如果只能选一个，我仍然会选择Coherent，因为他们建成了全球首条6英寸磷化铟晶圆生产线，并且有望在明年年底前将产能翻两番。
If I could only pick one, I'd still pick Coherent because they built the world's first production line for 6-in indium phosphide wafers and they're on track to quadruple their capacity by the end of next year.
请记住，他们每实际产生1美元收入，就要花费14美元来实现这一目标。首先，这两家公司都不生产自己的原材料。其次，如果超大规模数据中心的支出确实放缓，这两只股票都会受到重创。
Just remember, they're spending $14 for every dollar they actually generate to do it. First, neither of them make their own raw materials. Second, if hyperscaler spending does slow down, both of these stocks will get hit hard.
第三个重大风险是，磷化铟短缺和供应限制意味着两家公司都必须增加支出才能大规模扩张，而且他们需要在需求旺盛的时候做到这一点。
And the third big risk is that indium phosphide shortages and supply constraints mean that both companies have to spend more in order to scale aggressively and they need to do it while demand is hot.
因此，任何建设或生产延误都会给他们带来双倍的打击。这意味着今天的赢家可能很快就会变成明天的输家。
So any construction or production delays hurt them twice as bad. That means today's winners could quickly become tomorrow's losers.
他说在等什么
他自己说在等的东西，一段话一条记录。同一件事说过几次就出现几次，我们不合并，也不判断它有没有兑现。
这个频道对 $COHR 的历次判断
Ticker Symbol: YOU 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。