Costco是一家成熟且增长迅速的公司，但其40倍市盈率使得新买入缺乏吸引力，尽管可以继续持有现有仓位。
逐段跳播
二十年前，好市多比今天要全面得多。
Twenty years ago , Costco was much more comprehensive than it is today.
我们在好市多身上看到了这一点，在其他所有公司身上也看到了，而且看起来这种情况还会继续下去。
We've seen it with Costco. We've seen it with all the other companies, and it looks like it's going to continue.
我的感觉是，这就像在90年代买入好市多，或者在80年代买入沃尔玛。
That's how I feel, it's like buying Costco in the 90s or buying Walmart in the 80s.
我看了一张好市多的图表。好市多的股价在过去20年里上涨了20倍。过去——抱歉，这说得还不够——在过去20年里上涨了27.5倍，而标普500指数是7.5倍，对吧？
I looked at a chart for Costco. Costco's stock has increased 20 times in the last 20 years. The past—sorry, that's an understatement—has increased 27.5 times over the last 20 years , compared to the S& P 500's 7.5 times, right?
我首先想到的是，好市多是一种不同的模式，对吧？但我想，哦，好市多的股票目前的市盈率是40倍，对吧？这就是我在想的。
The first thing that comes to mind is that Costco is a different model, right? But I went, oh, Costco's stock is currently trading at 40 times its price-to-earnings ratio, right? That's what I'm thinking.
当好市多的价格处于40倍市盈率这个上限时，你如何看待这种长期积累，或者长期的估值目标？至于好市多，我认为它是一家伟大的公司。说实话，我不会卖出它的股票，但也不会买入。它就像一棵成熟的树，我是这么形容的。
它仍在增长，但在我看来已经非常成熟。它是一棵强壮的树，但仍在快速增长。
How do you think about this long-term accumulation or perhaps the long-term valuation target when Costco's price is at 40x, which is the upper limit, right? As for Costco, I see it as a great company. Honestly, I wouldn't sell its shares, but I wouldn't buy them either. It's like a mature tree, as I would describe it. It's still growing, but it's very mature in my opinion. It's a strong tree, but it's still growing at a rapid pace.
如果我们看看像阿尔迪、沃尔玛、平价食品杂货店，甚至好市多这样的商店，我们会发现它们在美国国内的增长没有任何问题。
if we look at stores like Aldi, Walmart, affordable grocery stores, and even Costco, we will find that they have not had any problem growing within the United States.
这让我想起，他们做的很多事情让我想起好市多和沃尔玛。有些人可能会说，好市多以亏本出售香肠和鸡肉来吸引顾客。但过去，他们有这个想法，不以任何亏本的产品来吸引顾客，也就是说，他们不会以更低的价格出售任何产品来吸引顾客，因为那会迫使他们提高其他产品的价格。而这是他们非常谨慎的事情。
it reminds me that they have a lot of things they're doing that remind me of Costco and Walmart. Some people might say that Costco sells sausages and chicken at a loss to attract customers. But in the past, they had this idea of not selling any products at a loss to attract customers, meaning they wouldn't sell any product at a lower price to attract customers, because that would force them to raise the prices of other products. And that's something they're very careful about.
这就是为什么，在我看来，好市多还没有上架水果和蔬菜。他们正在努力。他们必须为此改造所有的配送中心。另一个优势是，随着配送中心的改造，他们需要为每个中心配备一个独立的冷藏室。他们还在考虑建立供应商，不是为3700美元，而是为7000美元，因为那是他们业务增长的地方。
所以，他们并不是不在为两三年后提供什么而努力；他们是在为今天所做的事情而努力。
That's why, in my opinion, Costco hasn't carried fruits and vegetables yet. They're working on it. They have to retrofit all their distribution centers for this purpose. Another advantage is that with the retrofitting of the distribution centers, they'll need a separate cold storage room for each center. They're also thinking about establishing suppliers not for $3,700, but for $7,000 , because that's where their business will grow . So it's not as if they're not working on what they'll offer in two or three years; it's as if they're working on what they're doing today."
这个频道对 $COST 的历次判断
Yet Another Value Podcast 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。