Costco 被上调至买入评级；在抛售后估值已接近合理水平（843 美元，对比市场价 897 美元）。
逐段跳播
Costco 计划于 2026 年 9 月 24 日公布其季度财务业绩。此时正值 Costco 股价持续下跌之际。
Costco is scheduled to announce its quarterly financial results on September 24, 2026. This comes at a time when Costco's stock is suffering a decline.
很长一段时间以来，Costco 股价首次较其最高水平下跌了约 20%。几个月前，Costco 股价还在 1,100 美元附近交易，如今已跌破 900 美元。
For the first time in a long time, Costco shares have fallen by about 20% from their highest levels. Costco's stock was trading near $1,100 a few months ago, and is now trading below $900.
因此，投资者想知道是否应该在下次投资者更新之前买入 Costco 股票。先从 Costco 的销售数据说起，公司管理层表示，从 8 月销售来看，美国同店销售额较去年同期增长了 9%。
Therefore, investors are wondering whether they should buy Costco shares before the next investor update. Let's start with Costco's sales figures, where the company's management indicates that sales at similar stores in the United States rose by 9% compared to the same month last year when looking at August sales.
不过，如果看剔除燃油价格后的可比零售销售额，美国零售销售额增长了 5.6%，加拿大增长了 2.8%。数字销售额增长了 17.9%，无论是否计入燃油都是如此，因为燃油并不通过数字渠道销售。
However, if we look at comparable retail sales excluding fuel prices, US retail sales rose by 5.6%, and in Canada by 2.8%. Digital sales recorded a growth of 17.9%, whether viewed with or without fuel, as fuel is not sold digitally.
Costco 的线上业务表现相当不错。要记住，Costco 并不像 Walmart 和 Target 等竞争对手那样专注于线上销售，但它仍保有一席之地，并在这一品类中扩张良好。
Costco's online business is performing reasonably well. Remember that Costco does not focus on online sales like its competitors such as Walmart and Target, but it still maintains a presence and is expanding well in this category.
从长期来看，Costco 在提升营收方面做得非常出色，尤其是在与 Walmart 等公司的门店数量相比时。
In the long run, Costco has done an excellent job of increasing revenue, especially when compared to the number of its stores with Walmart and others.
Costco 在全球拥有不到 1,000 家门店，接近 900 家，并在过去十二个月中实现了 2930 亿美元的销售额。
Costco has fewer than 1,000 stores worldwide, closer to 900, and has generated $293 billion in sales over the past twelve months.
所以，从单店销售额来看，Costco 的表现超过你能想到的任何其他传统零售商。当然，如果以利润率衡量，Costco 并不是一家高盈利的公司，而这是它有意为之。
So, when you look at Costco in terms of sales per store, it outperforms any other traditional retailer you can imagine. Of course, Costco is not a highly profitable company if measured by profit margins, and it does so intentionally.
他们借助出色的采购流程，设法以更低的价格采购商品，当他们拿到优惠和折扣价格时，会把节省下来的钱让利给顾客。他们希望为顾客提供极佳的购物体验，一种让他们确信自己拿到了最低价格而感到安心的体验。
They find ways to buy products at lower prices using an excellent buying process, and when they get deals and discounted prices, they pass those savings on to customers. They want to provide a great shopping experience for customers, an experience where they feel comfortable knowing they are getting the lowest prices.
他们甚至不需要去比价，因为他们已经相信 Costco 为他们提供了尽可能最好的价格。Costco 因此获得了非常高的会员续费率，在美国超过 90%。
They don't even need to compare, because they have come to trust that Costco offers them the best possible price. Costco is rewarded with a very high membership renewal rate, exceeding 90% in the United States.
因此，现有会员中有超过 90% 会续费。这正是 Costco 赚取大部分利润的地方，即销售这些会员订阅。然后，他们全年通过商品销售赚取微薄的利润率。
Therefore, current members renew their membership in more than 90% of cases. This is where Costco earns the bulk of its profits, from selling those subscriptions. They then make small profit margins from product sales throughout the year.
总体而言，Costco 的营业利润率仅为 3.8%。当我提到这个数字时，人们往往感到惊讶，尤其是非投资者，也就是那些不熟悉投资、利润率、财务分析等的人。
Overall, Costco achieved an operating profit margin of only 3.8%. People are often surprised when I mention this figure, especially non-investors, those who are not familiar with investing, profit margins, financial analysis, and so on.
当我和家人朋友交谈时，我们大多都使用 Costco。当他告诉他们，每 100 美元的销售额中，Costco 赚取的利润不到 4 美元。
When I talk to family and friends, we all mostly use Costco. When he told them that for every $100 of sales, Costco made less than $4 in profit.
当我向他们展示这个数字时，我看到满屋子人集体震惊，因为 Costco 在销售上赚取的利润率如此之低。
When I present them with this figure, I see a collective shock in the room because Costco is making such small profit margins on sales.
我认为人们以为从 Costco 购买商品时，Costco 赚取的利润要多得多，但事实并非如此。他们把那些更优惠的价格让利给顾客。
I think people assume that Costco makes a lot more profit when products are bought from them, but that's not true. They pass those better prices on to customers.
Costco 在资本配置方面也非常高效。如果你去一家 Costco 门店，店里很可能很拥挤，而他们是有意为之。他们对于新开门店的数量非常保守。
Costco is also very efficient in allocating capital. If you visit a Costco store, it's likely that the store was crowded, and they do that intentionally. They are very conservative in the number of new sites they open.
此外，Costco 的低价使其能够以行业领先的水平周转库存，这也带来了更高的投入资本回报率，因为他们在甚至还没向供应商付款之前就已经把商品卖出去了，对吧？
In addition, Costco’s low prices allow them to rotate inventory at industry-leading levels, which also delivers a better return on invested capital because they sell products before they even have to pay suppliers, right?
在大多数情况下，Costco 在甚至还没向这些公司付款之前就已经把那些商品卖出去了。因此，他们用顾客付给他们的钱来偿付这些公司，这使 Costco 实现了 22.6% 的行业领先投入资本回报率。
In most cases, Costco sells those products before it even has to pay these companies. Therefore, they reimburse them for the money that customers pay them, and this has resulted in Costco achieving industry-leading returns on invested capital of 22.6%.
你可以把它与 Home Depot、Walmart、Target 和 Costco 相比；它的表现优于它们全部。
You can compare that to Home Depot, Walmart, Target, and Costco; it outperforms them all.
Costco 近期这轮大幅抛售带来的一个令人意外之处，是造成了一种该股似乎正以其公允价值估值的局面。
One of the surprising things that this recent heavy sell-off of Costco has created is a situation where the stock appears to be valued at its fair value.
这种情况已经很久没有发生了。Costco 的业务如此出色，以至于它通常以高估值（溢价）出售。即便在今天，价格依然很高，但这一溢价已经下降。
This hasn't happened in a very long time. Costco's business is so excellent that it is usually sold at a high rating (premium). Even today, the price remains high, but this premium has decreased.
它目前的预期市盈率为 36，非常接近 Walmart 的 33，也接近 Costco 股票交易过的最低水平。你得回溯到整个 2024 年，才能看到接近这些水平的估值。
It is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 36, very close to Walmart at 33, and near the lowest level at which Costco stock has traded. You have to go back to the whole of 2024 to see a valuation that was close to these levels.
同样地，我更新了对 Costco 的现金流折现估值模型，目前公允价值为 843 美元，与 897 美元的市场价格相比，已非常接近实际市场价格。
Similarly, I updated my discounted cash flow valuation model for Costco, and the fair value is now very close to the actual market price at $843 as a fair value compared to the market price of $897.
这意味着仅高估 6%。这显然落在我的安全边际之内。这是 Costco 很长时间以来最接近合理价格的一次。多年来，自从我开始跟踪 Costco 股票以来，这是第一次，我将该股评级上调至“买入”。
This means an overvaluation of only 6%. This clearly falls within my safety margin. This is the closest fair price Costco has had in a very long time. Well, for the first time in years, years since I started following Costco stock, I'm upgrading the stock rating to "buy".
上一次我给予 Costco 股票“买入”评级，我想我需要修订一下我的历史评级记录。那大概是在 2021 年或 2022 年。
Now, the last time I rated Costco stock as a "buy," I think I'll need to revise my historical ratings. That was probably in 2021 or 2022.
Costco 股票已有数年未曾接近让我得以将其评级上调至“买入”的水平，因为其估值一直高于我计算出的公允价值估计。
It has been several years since Costco stock approached levels that would allow me to upgrade it to a "buy" rating, given that the valuation has always been higher than the fair value estimates I have calculated.
我在 2026 年 9 月 21 日更新这一评级。那么，来回答这个问题：你应该在财报公布前还是公布后买入？
So, I'm updating this on September 21, 2026. Now, to answer the question, should you buy it before or after the profits?
在这种情况下，我对在财报前买入还是财报后买入持中性态度。因此，如果你有兴趣在当前价位买入 Costco 股票，我会在财报公布前买入一半仓位，在财报公布后买入另一半。
Well, this is a situation where I feel neutral towards buying before or after. Therefore, I would buy half the quantity before earnings and the other half after if you are interested in buying Costco stock at these levels.
不过，我认为 Costco 股票在这里呈现出的是一个罕见的机会。这是世界上最好的公司之一，即便在合理估值下也很少出现这样的交易机会。
However, this is a rare opportunity I see here with Costco stock. One of the best companies in the world that is rarely traded even at a reasonable valuation.
它通常以高估值交易，在 Costco 上市的这几十年中的很大一部分时间里都是如此，而在我跟踪 Costco 股票的这十年里，它在这十年的大部分时间里也以高估值交易。
It usually trades at a high valuation, and this has been the case for a large portion of the few decades that Costco has been in, and certainly in the decade that I have followed Costco stock, it traded at a high valuation for most of that decade.
这个频道对 $COST 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。