COST 拥有强大的商业模式和稳健的财务状况，当前估值对长期持有而言颇具吸引力。
逐段跳播
在本视频中，我们将关注 Costco，其交易代码为 COST。在本视频中，我们将了解 Costco 运作的基本情况。我们会回顾一些数据，然后尝试得出 Costco 股票的合理价值，以判断今天投资它是否值得。
In this video we will take a look at Costco, whose trading symbol is COST. So in this video , we'll look at the basics of how Costco works. We will review some figures and then try to arrive at a fair value for Costco stock to see if investing in it today is worthwhile.
这里可能存在机会，因为当我们观察 Costco 过去一年左右的股价时，该股表现平平。事实上，它在过去两个月里已从近期高点回落。所以这里可能存在投资机会。
There may be an opportunity here, because when we look at Costco's stock over the past year or so, the stock hasn't performed much . In fact, it has retreated in the past two months from its recent highs.
So there might be an investment opportunity here.
基本上，对于不了解 Costco 的人来说，它是一家以批发方式销售商品的零售公司。我个人认为 Costco 是一家相当不错的公司，
Basically, for those who don't know Costco, it's a retail company that sells goods wholesale. I personally think Costco is a fairly good company,
Costco 业务中一个有趣之处在于，并非所有门店都是同等的。在美国和加拿大，他们拥有强大的布局，如果他们新增门店，会给不同的人带来不同的好处。也许如果我是 Costco 会员，而他们在我附近开了一家新店，我就不必再跑很远的路，现在可以走更短的距离。
这可能是件好事。或者，如果他们在附近没有其他门店的新地区开设门店，他们就能获得更多会员，因为会员最终有助于推动他们的业务。
One of the interesting aspects of Costco's business is that not all locations are created equal. Where they have a strong presence in the United States and Canada, if they add new stores, it brings different benefits to different people.
Perhaps if I were a Costco member and they opened a new store near me, instead of having to travel a long distance, I could now travel a shorter distance. This might be a good thing.
Or if they are opening a site in a new area where there is no other site nearby, they can get more members , because memberships ultimately help to drive their business.
我们可以看到，他们目前拥有略多于 900 家门店，而分析师预计他们将在未来两年内达到约 1,000 家门店。
We can see that they currently have just over 900 sites, and analysts expect them to reach around 1,000 sites within the next two years.
会员收入约占总收入的 3%。我听到一些人把这描述为直接计入净利润。但我不确定这是否是看待它的公平方式，因为他们做生意的方式才是对其业务更好的描述。所以人们付费成为会员，对吧？去年会员费约占总收入的 3%。
Membership income is approximately 3% of total income. I have heard some people describe this as going straight into net profit. But I'm not sure that's a fair way to look at it, because the way they've done their business is a better description of their business .
So people pay to be members , right? Membership fees represented approximately 3% of total revenue last year.
但总的来说，Costco 的顾客知道他们是在批量购买，但他们能拿到好价格。这很有帮助，而这些好价格以及价格实惠的高品质产品，正是推动会员加入的因素。如果他们提供劣质产品，或者没有人们想要的产品，人们就不会成为会员。
所以，可以说 Costco 的体系、这个体系的效率以及他们工作的质量，是促使人们订阅的原因。如果那种质量下降了，会员就不会继续。因此，会员资格肯定是有成本的。
But in general, Costco customers know they are buying in bulk, but they get good prices. This is helpful, and these good prices and high- quality products at an affordable price are something that has motivated membership.
If they offered inferior products or did not have the products that people wanted, they would not have become members. So, let's say that Costco's system, the efficiency of this system, and the quality of their work are what drive people to subscribe.
If that quality had declined, the membership would not have continued. Therefore, there is definitely a cost to membership.
然而，当我们看这些数字时，你就会明白为什么人们说它直接计入净利润。但我认为那是一种肤浅的看法。我读到过这一点，而当我审阅他们的财务报表、阅读他们业务部分中关于其业务的介绍，以及他们在 investors.costco.com 上的年度报告时，我了解得越多，就越意识到这笔交易并非完全免费。
这并不意味着这只是额外送给他们的钱。满足顾客是有成本的。
However, when we look at the numbers, you'll understand why people say it goes straight into net profit. But I think that's a superficial way of looking at it. I read that, and as I reviewed their financial statements and read about their business in their business section , and in their annual report on investors.costco.com, the more I learned, the more I realized that this transaction is not entirely free.
This does not mean that this is simply extra money going to them. There is a cost to satisfying customers.
现在，他们用来提升会员忠诚度的做法之一，是他们在许多情况下能够提供更好的价格。他们并不提供那种。如果你去当地的门店，那里可能有 50 个品牌提供同一种产品，Costco 则不是。
他们提供的是一份更聚焦的产品清单。事实上，据我读到的，他们大多数分店在任何时候都只经营不到 4,000 种在售品类。因此，他们不提供 50 种不同的牙膏，而只提供少数几种，并且以大批量提供。
这样，只要你对他们所售的产品满意，你就能拿到更好的价格。他们还有自己的品牌“Kirkland”，这同样是折扣产品，但质量尚可，这也是吸引许多顾客到他们门店的因素之一。更不用说他们还有燃油。
同样是质量不错的产品，价格更低。因此，他们的目标是以更低的价格提供大销量。这种大规模的模式，这种大规模的业务模式，使他们能够拥有更简单的流程和更好的采购条件。当他们向 Coca-Cola 采购时，Coca-Cola 知道他们从自己这里采购的数量巨大。
所以，这和从本地杂货店采购不一样。这是巨大的数量，因为他们是批发销售。无论如何，这改变了我们看待他们业务的方式。最终，这造就了我认为对 Costco 而言更强大的业务模式。我非常欣赏他们的业务模式。
他们努力在自己所做的事情上做到极其高效。大品牌以高效率通过他们的门店流转。他们给员工的薪酬相当不错，并且能够更好地分摊运营成本。
Now, one of the things they do to boost member loyalty is their ability to offer better prices in many cases. They don't offer that. If you go to your local store, which may have 50 brands offering the same product, Costco is not.
They offer a more focused list of products. In fact, from what I've read, most of their branches carry fewer than 4,000 active varieties at any given time. Therefore, they do not offer 50 different types of toothpaste, but only a few types, and they offer them in large quantities.
Thus, you get a better price as long as you are satisfied with the products they have available . They also have their own brand, "Kirkland," which is again a discounted product, but of reasonable quality, and this is one of the things that attracts many customers to their branches.
Not to mention that they have fuel. Once again, a decent quality product at a reduced price. Therefore , their goal is to offer a large volume at a lower price. This large-scale setup, this large-scale business model , allows them to have simpler processes and better purchasing terms.
When they go to buy from Coca-Cola, Coca-Cola knows that they are buying huge quantities from them. So, it's not the same as buying from a local grocery store. This is a huge quantity because they sell it wholesale.
In any case, this changes the way we look at their work. Ultimately, this leads to what I believe is a stronger business model for Costco. I am a big fan of their business model.
They try to be extremely efficient at what they do. Large brands move them through their branches with high efficiency. They pay their employees fairly well , and they are able to spread operating costs better.
我们将从收入开始，可以看到在过去十年里，收入相当稳定。它年复一年持续上升。虽然增长率并不总是高达 30-40% 那种疯狂水平，但它一直相当稳定。我想指出，高收入增长并不一定意味着高利润增长，因为从理论上讲，如果汽油价格上涨——正如我们所知确实上涨了——那么即使他们与上一年相比卖出同样数量的汽油，收入也会增加。
因此，始终重要的是看营业利润率和净利润率等指标。这基本上意味着，Costco 每产生 100 美元收入，其中有多少进入净利润？赚到的利润是多少？在这种情况下，也就是去年，你可以看到他们赚了 3.04 美元利润。
这就解释了为什么有人说，约占收入 2% 或 3% 的会员费直接计入净利润，因为他们的利润率约为 3%。再说一次，我不确定这是看待它的公平方式。如果是这样的话，我认为我们忽略了业务或其经营方式的一些复杂性，但你可能会理解他们为什么这样做。
We'll start with revenues, and we can see that over the past decade, revenues have been fairly consistent . It has continued to rise year after year. Although the growth rate is not always a crazy 30-40%, it has been fairly consistent .
I would like to point out that high revenue growth does not necessarily mean high profit growth, because theoretically, if gasoline prices rise as we know they have, revenues will increase even if they sell the same quantity of gasoline compared to the previous year.
Therefore, it is always important to look at indicators such as operating income margins and net profit margins. This basically means, for every $100 Costco generates in revenue, how much of it goes to net profit ?
What is the amount of profit made? In this case , and in the last year, you can see that they made $3.04 in profit. This explains why some say that membership fees, which make up about 2 or 3% of revenue, go directly into net profit because their profit margin is about 3%.
Again, I'm not sure that's a fair way to look at it. If that's the case , I think we're overlooking some of the complexities of the business or how it's run, but you might understand why they do it.
现在，我想指出有必要看看这里的总体趋势。从长期来看，Costco 的趋势一直是逐步上行。这不是一家增长惊人的公司。这是一家处于高度竞争市场中的企业，但他们一直设法实现更好的利润率，总体而言这令人印象深刻。
Now, I would like to point out the need to look at the general trend here. In the long run, Costco's trend has been one of gradual upward movement. This is not a company with tremendous growth.
This is a business in a highly competitive market, but they have consistently managed to achieve better profit margins, which is impressive overall.
所以，总体而言，我对 Costco 每年逐步改善其业务的能力相当满意。再说一次，不是巨大的增长，而是稳步的增长。
So, overall, I am quite satisfied with Costco’s ability to gradually improve its business each year. Again, not huge gains, but steady gains.
让我们快速看一下现金和债务。这是过去十年的图表，你可以看到，相对于债务，他们拥有相当多的现金。债务相对较低。债务是橙色的条，紫色条是现金条。目前现金与债务的比率非常好。顺便说一句，这是现金、短期投资和长期投资与短期和长期债务的对比。
如果你想知道 STI 和 LTI 是什么意思，它们是短期投资和长期投资。
Let's take a quick look at cash and debt. This is a graph from the last decade, and you can see they have a good amount of cash compared to their debt. The debt was relatively low.
Debts are the orange stripes, and the purple stripes are the cash strips. The cash-to- debt ratio is very good at the moment. By the way, this is cash, short-term investments and long- term investments versus short-term and long-term debt.
If you are wondering what STI and LTI mean, they are short-term investments and long-term investments.
好，现在我们来看一下公允价值。在 Investors Growth 网站上，我们有所谓的价值区间。本质上，就是取公司的市盈率并加以分析，看它距离5年移动平均线有多近。我们现在可以看到，Costco 股票似乎被低估了，而且似乎被低估得相当明显。
如果你想知道这是怎么运作的，在左上角，你可以看到它告诉我们，如果我们每天都买入，会获得怎样的回报。这是一张回溯过去五年的日线图。如果你在股票处于绿色区间时每天都买入，你的表现会如何？
在这种情况下，你会比在它被高估时买入贵大约40%。如果你在它处于红色区间时买入，你大致会处于中性位置，下跌约半个百分点。所以，当你在股票被低估时买入，你的表现会相当好。而现在，它似乎被明显低估了。
现在，我想指出，我很好奇。在 Investors Growth 网站上，你可以在我们的价值区间和带有5年移动平均线的传统市盈率图表之间切换。我们可以看到，它目前实际上似乎被低估了。
尽管从倍数的角度看，Costco 股票目前的交易价格约为40倍。仅这个数字看起来就很高，但它低于5年平均水平。再说一次，从价值的角度，并且相对于它自身的历史来看，它看起来相当不错。
这是一家我认为从长期买入并持有的角度看很有意思的公司。我们已经看过价格图表，该股在过去一年里没有太大变化。所以，这实际上可能是一个机会。
Okay, now let's move on to taking a look at fair value. So, on the Investors Growth website, we have what we call value zones . Essentially, the price-to- earnings ratio of the company is taken and analyzed to see how close it is to the 5-year moving average.
We can now see that Costco stock appears to be undervalued , and appears to be undervalued quite well. Now, if you're wondering how this works, at the top left, you can see that it tells us what returns we would have made if we had bought every day.
This is a daily chart that goes back to the last five years . If you bought every day the stock was in the green zone, how would you perform? In this case, you will be about 40 % more expensive than if you had bought it when it was overvalued.
If you bought it when it was in the red zone, you would be in a roughly neutral position , down by about half a percent. So , you outperform quite well when you buy a stock when it is undervalued.
And now, it seems to be well undervalued . Now, I would like to point out that I was curious . So, on the Investors Growth website, you can switch between our value zones and a traditional price-to-earnings chart with a 5-year moving average .
We can see that it actually appears to be undervalued at the moment. Although from a multiples perspective, Costco stock is currently trading at around 40 times. This number alone seems high, but it is lower than the 5-year average.
And again, from a value perspective, and in relation to its own history, it looks fairly good. This is a company that I think is interesting from a long-term buying and holding perspective .
We've already seen the price chart and the stock hasn't done much over the past year. So, this might actually be an opportunity.
但是，正如你们许多人知道的，我喜欢复核我的评级。因此，这里另一个好用的公允价值方法是自由现金流，以及折现自由现金流。在这里，我喜欢使用分析师对自由现金流的估算。我们可以看到分析师对未来五年的估算。
该股似乎被略微高估了。这是那些在一段时间内持续被高估的公司之一。我希望看到它的状况比按其价值高出60%略好一些。对我来说，这似乎有点高。因此，我希望看到该股略微下跌。但我很困惑。
我纠结于它从倍数-盈利能力的角度看似乎被低估。顺便说一句，市盈率是最常见的估值方法之一。正如我们在这家公司身上看到的，它显然已被证明在历史上是有效的。在过去五年里，我们在价值低时买入的表现，远好于在价值高时买入。
所以，那里的情况似乎相当不错。但至于折现现金流，我希望看到它略微下跌。所以，就个人而言，我会把这只股票加入我的观察名单。我们希望看到它再跌一点。该股股价在过去一年里相对稳定。如果它再回落一点，可能是一个很好的机会。
But, as many of you know, I like to double-check my rating. Therefore, another good method of fair value to use here is free cash flow , and discounted free cash flow. Here, I like to use analysts' estimates of free cash flow.
We can see our analysts' estimates for the next five years. The stock appears to be slightly overvalued. This is one of the companies that has been consistently overvalued for a period of time.
I would like to see it in a slightly better position than being valued at 60% above its worth. To me, this seems a bit high . Therefore, I would like to see the stock decline slightly.
But I am confused. I am torn between it appearing to be undervalued from a multiple- profitability perspective. Incidentally, the price-to-earnings ratio is one of the most common valuation methods .
As we have seen with this company, it has clearly proven to be historically effective. Over the past five years, we have performed much better by buying when values are low than by buying when they are high.
So, the situation there seems to be fairly good . But as for the discounted cash flow, I would like to see it decline a little . So, on a personal level, I will add this stock to my watchlist .
We hope to see it decline a little more. The stock price has been relatively stable over the past year. If he retreats a little further, it could be a great opportunity.
这个频道对 $COST 的历次判断
Learn to Invest - Investors Grow 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。