CPRT的营收下滑主要非内生性（受飓风基数影响），因此股价被低估，若增长恢复则是良好的转型候选。
逐段跳播
Copart，全球汽车拍卖平台，也大幅下跌。
Copart, the global auctioning platform for cars, is down big as well.
接下来是 Copart。这个标志看起来非常过时。它几乎像是 1990 年代 Blockbuster 时代的标志。所以，你可能会看着这家公司想：“啊，这真是一家老公司。”但很多这类公司实际上拥有非常好的业务，Copart 就是其中之一。
Next up we have Copart. This looks like a very dated logo. It almost looks like a logo from like the 1990s, back in the Blockbuster days. So, you might look at the company and think, "Ah, this this is a really old company." But a lot of these type of companies actually have really good businesses, and Copart is one of them.
但基本上，Copart 的赚钱方式是，当一辆车被定为全损时，保险公司需要处理那辆车。而保险公司不想直接出售那辆车。他们寻找一个合作伙伴，可以将车辆转给对方，让该合作伙伴处理车辆。
这正是 Copart 所做的。一辆车被定为全损，保险公司试图自行出售残骸，它将车辆送到 Copart。Copart 存储车辆，将其列在其在线拍卖平台上，并出售给拆解商、重建商、二手车买家、出口商和其他买家。
因此，Copart 是保险公司处理全损或损坏车辆的辅助工作。
But basically, how Copart makes money is when a vehicle is totaled, the insurance company needs to do something with that vehicle. And the insurance company doesn't want to sell that vehicle directly. They look for a partner that they can just offload that vehicle to, and have that partner deal with the vehicle. And that's exactly what Copart does. A vehicle is totaled, the insurance company trying to sell the wreck itself, it sends that vehicle over to Copart. Copart stores the vehicle, lists it on its online auction platform, and sells it to dismantlers, rebuilders, used car buyers, exporters, and other buyers. So, Copart is an ancillary effort to an insurance company in getting rid of totaled or damaged vehicles.
这里有一些重要的细微差别，比如 Copart 通常不拥有全损车辆本身。它只是完成处理车辆的所有物流和机械工作，但他们实际上并不购买车辆本身。他们或多或少在过程中收取服务费。这使得公司更具吸引力，因为他们不必承担所有这些车辆的库存成本。
And there's some important nuances here, like Copart usually doesn't own the total vehicle itself. It simply does all the logistics and the mechanics of getting rid of it, but they're not actually buying the vehicle itself. They more or less charge service fees along the way. That makes the company a lot more attractive, as they don't have to hold the inventory costs of all these vehicles.
现在，这家公司的有趣之处在于，它被定价为一个非常耐用的复利机器，可以实现两位数的收入增长。因此，投资者购买 Copart 时预期它每年增长 13% 到 15%，就像它前几年所做的那样。
Now, the interesting thing about this company is it was priced as a very durable compounding machine that could grow double-digit revenue. So, investors would buy Copart expecting it to grow between 13 to 15% per year, like it had done in many of the years prior.
投资者有充分的理由相信这家公司将继续像其历史上那样增长，但最近它停止了。如果你注意这里的长期收入，它似乎有一个上限。收入在过去一年停止了。事实上，它确实停止了增长。收入增长不到 2%，经通胀调整后实际上根本没有增长。
Investors had good reason to believe that this company would continue to grow like it has throughout its history, but then it just recently stopped. If you notice right here the long-term revenue, it seems to just have a ceiling. The revenue stopped in just the past year. In fact, it literally has stopped growing. The revenue grew by less than 2%, which adjusted for inflation is not really growing at all.
一些投资者看着这家公司说：“嗯，这过去增长超快，现在根本不增长了。我要退出这家公司。我不想与它有任何关系。”巨大的抛售压力已将价格推低了大约 50%。
Some investors are looking at the company going, "Huh, this used to grow super fast and now it's not growing at all. I'm bouncing out of this company. I want nothing to do with it." And massive selling pressure has driven the price down approximately 50%.
但如果我们看看这家公司实际发生的情况，并不像听起来那么糟糕。并且有理由相信未来收入将再次回升。我们可以先看看收入停止增长的原因。部分原因仅仅是因为艰难的同比比较。近年来收入增长非常快，但那是因为巨大的飓风。
飓风摧毁了数千辆汽车。保险公司不得不支付巨额赔款。这些车辆都交给了 Copart，然后它们后来被拍卖或拆解。
But if we look at the actual story of what's going on with this company, it's not nearly as bad as it sounds. And there's reasons to believe that the revenue will pick up once again in the future. We can first look at why the revenue stopped growing. Part of this was simply because of tough comps. The revenue was growing really fast in recent years, but that's because of huge hurricanes. Hurricanes destroyed thousands of vehicles. Insurance companies had to pay out huge amounts. Those vehicles were all given to Copart, and then they were later auctioned off or disassembled.
事实上，当我们进行粗略计算并尝试估计飓风对收入减速至持平的影响时，估计约占影响的 70%，这意味着只有 30% 的收入减速是基于有机的，而不是飓风造成的。所以这看起来比实际情况糟糕得多，这意味着有机业务比股票定价所反映的要健康得多。
In fact, when we do rough math and try to estimate how much of an impact the hurricanes had on the revenue decelerating to flat, it's estimated to be around 70% of the impact, meaning that only 30% of the revenue deceleration is organically based and not hurricane based. So this visibly looks much worse than it actually is, meaning that the organic business is much healthier than what's being priced into the stock.
还有其他因素影响 Copart 今天的下跌，比如保险变得更加昂贵，很多人不再购买综合保险，只购买责任险，这些因素未来也可能被定价和改变。所以其中一些也是周期性的。
There are other factors playing into the decline of Copart today, like the fact that insurance has gotten much more expensive, a lot of people are not going for the comprehensive insurance, they're just going for liability, and those are factors that are likely to be priced and changed in the future as well. So some of this is also cyclical.
但机会是存在的。如果你相信 Copart 能够重回正轨，恢复正常的稳定的高个位数或低两位数的收入增长，那么该股今天很可能被低估，并且是扭转局面的良好候选者。
But the opportunity exists. If you believe that Copart can get back on track, it can resume normal steady high single digits or low double digit revenue growth, then the stock is most likely underpriced today and is a good candidate for a turnaround play.
这个频道对 $CPRT 的历次判断
Joseph Carlson 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。