$CRCL

若6630支撑位守住,则看涨CRCL,并计划逐步建仓。

看涨他说的是几周内
《Monthly Crypto Webinar Series: September 19th, 2026》
ElliottWaveTrader发布 2026-09-22 · 7 段内容
45:43/ 打开原视频

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7 段内容
45:4349:01

所以,一个是Circle。我该怎么说呢?所以,Circle,我们在它里面有一个交易在运行。被止损出局了。实际上我所有的circle交易都是盈利的,但在那最后一波走势中放弃了不少,因为在我看来它跌破了支撑。

So, one is Circle. Um, how do I say this? So, Circle, we had a trade running in it. Stopped out of it. It was actually all of my circle trades have been profitable, but gave up a good deal on that last move because it looked to me like it broke support.

我必须,在看到周五的走势之后,我实际上更倾向于,我认为Garrett,你们中一些关注Garrett的人,我认为他有这个计数,他在这里把它算作五浪。在这波走势之后我现在同意,至少这是可能的。

然而,我们只有三浪。所以,我想看到从这里走出五浪。无论如何,基于我所看到的,只要63守住,我就看涨这个黑色计数。等等,等等,让我核对一下。不,我认为那实际上是错的。抱歉,那是旧的支撑。

是的,是6630。所以,把它上移。只要6630守住,我就给它很大的机会。

I have to I have to actually after seeing Friday's action, I actually prefer and I think Garrett, some of you guys that follow Garrett, I think he has this count where he has this as five waves here.

I agree now after this move that at least it's probable. However, we only have three ways off. So, I want to see five waves out of this. Regardless, based on what I'm seeing, I am bullish this black count as long as 63 holds.

Wait, wait, let me check that. No, I think that's wrong actually. Sorry, that's the old support. Yeah, it's 6630. So, move that up. As long as 6630 holds, I'm giving this a good chance.

而我为什么改变了看法,我昨天在市场收盘后很晚才看到这个。我看了一眼。我心想,天哪,这波上涨让它形成了五浪。这并非不可能。它,g red现在将不得不成为一个对角线,从这个一二开始。这并非不可能,但现在概率很低。

And why I changed my view, I I saw this late yesterday after the market closed. I took a look. I was like, holy crap, this move up makes five waves in it. It's not impossible. Um, it's g red is going to have to be a diagonal now off of this being one two.

It's not impossible, but it's a low probability now.

另一件我可以,我要说的,我在这里放一个蓝色。也有可能即使它是三浪,我们也会有一个很深的第二浪。所以,无论如何,对我来说底线是,我要去累积circle。所以,我还没有重新进场,但我很可能会在周一开始。

寻找我的三角形。是的,这里的三角形。所以,我使用三角形。所以,我要去累积。为什么是三角形?因为我在金字塔式加仓我的头寸。我会在,下周初在这里小量小量地进场,这就是为什么三角形的宽度在这里很小。

我们会看看它在哪里。我可能会,如果它明显是五浪,那我就不会,我会等待回调。然后如果它深入到一个很深的第二浪,我会把这个变成蓝色。我会去累积,然后如果我们得到五浪,如果我从这波走势得到五浪,那么这个三角形就会上移,我会更激进,对吧?

因为它会在这里形成一个更高的低点然后直接跑。所以无论如何,这就是我要对这只股票做的事情。

the other thing I could I will say about, uh, I'm going to put a blue on here. It's also possible that even if it's three waves that we have a deep deep two. So, anyway, bottom line to me, I am I am going to accumulate a circle.

So, I haven't gotten back in yet, but I'm going to start on Monday most likely. Looking for my triangle. Yeah, triangle here. So, I use triangles. So, I'm going to accumulate. And why do I why is a triangle?

Because I'm pyramiding my position. I'm going to uh go in small small me that's why the width of the triangle small up here early next week. We'll see where it's at. I might if it's if it's clearly five waves then I won't I'll wait for the pullback.

Um and then as if it goes deep into a deep two um I'm going to turn this blue. I am going to accumulate and then if we get five waves um if I get five waves off this move then this triangle is going to move up and I'm going to be more aggressive, right?

because it it will form a higher low here and just run. So anyway, um that's what I'm going to be doing with this stock.

再说一次,为什么改变?考虑到我们在这里的位置,我们有一个相当糟糕的止损出局。那没关系。它是盈利的。我会,为什么改变?这只是太高了。现在期望红色计数太高了。至少在概率上。它并非,它并非无效,但如果它走,它就是一个对角线。

所以,就是这样。这是一个很大的改变,看起来不错。

Um again, why the change? We had a pretty bad stopout given that we're up here. That's okay. It was profitable. Um I will uh what why the change? This is just too high. Too high to expect the red count now.

At least probabilistically. It's not it's not uh it's not uh invalid, but if it if it goes, it's a diagonal. So, that's that. That's a big change and looks good.

然后,哦,这未来会怎样?只要它继续上涨,我们就会,我们可能会看到circle,你知道,从现在起4倍。那是预测。让我核对一下,从这里再核对一下那个预测。我对这张长期图表唯一不喜欢的是这个。

这里的这个二非常低。是的。所以,至少389。好吧,我会说至少333,有可能500。所以,这将是,最大,最大预期。这并不意味着它不能延伸走得更远,但那是最大预期,我们可能会在基本斐波那契水平上看到的。

And then, oh, what's this going to do in the future? As long as it continues up, we're going to we could see circle, you know, 4x from now. That's projection. Let me check double check that projection from here.

The only thing I don't like about this long-term chart is this. This two down here was really low. Yeah. So, at least 389. Well, I'd say at least 333 possibility of 500 actually.

So, this would be um the max the max expectation. Doesn't mean it can't extend and go farther, but that's the max expectation what what we could um see at a basic fib level.

所以,那个看起来不错,在那个区域累积。再说一次,累积区域在这里和66之间。我的意思是,如果你还没有头寸,就小心买在高点,以防它在这个RA中形成一个B浪顶部。

Uh so, that one looks good accumulating in that zone. Again, the accumulation zone is between here and 66. I mean, um just be careful buying the highs if you don't have position already in case it puts in a B-wave top in this RA.

观察点

价格相对6630这一水平的走势
守在6630上方
近期图表价格走势
支撑看涨论点;跌破则削弱该论点
浪型计数的确认
自当前走势起完成五浪
未来几个交易日/几周图表形态分析
确认看涨推动结构,并允许更积极的加仓

这个频道对 $CRCL 的历次判断

ElliottWaveTrader 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

2026-09-22看涨本条
所以,一个是Circle。
2026-08-17
最后是 Circle。Circle 很有意思,因为上周的走势给了我一个做空设置,我稍后会讲,但同时它可能表明我的黑色计数还有戏。再提醒一下大家,黑色计数的目标是 465。过去两个月我一直认为这个概率很低,因为低位支撑被跌破,但有了这个高点,它开始看起来像是那个二浪的第四浪。所以,只要它守住这个箱体的底部,也就是 56,那可能是一个非常非常低的二浪。别误会,那会把它送到我所说的 90% 失败率以下,因为那就是失败路径。任何时候某样东西以某种方式跌破 764 回撤位,90% 可能会失败。你可以引用我的话。实际上,我会说 99%。但对我来说,以 56 买入、止损设在 48,在这个潜力下是不用想的。我不在乎它是否失败。我只是不那么看重那个仓位。但现在,让我们放大到当前的位置。我们有更多短期的东西。再说一次,在我们到达 56 或我考虑买入的位置之前,我们有一个区间突破失败或龟汤设置,如果你喜欢 ICT 术语的话。我甚至不知道为什么他们叫它龟汤。但你可以看到价格小幅突破了我画的箱体区间,然后又回来了。回来时还有不错的负 delta,意味着人们在卖出。也许是因为突破失败而逃之夭夭。我不知道。但这非常有趣,而且概率真的很高,回到比特币和以太坊,它会穿过这个区间,而且很可能,因为每次在区间内被买入时,它都拒绝被洗掉,但很可能快速洗一下,至少进入 55 区域。如果是红色计数,它就会继续下跌,一直跌到 40。所以再说一次,我不会盲目在 56 买入。让它先表现出来。如果你现在想尝试这个仓位,我已经有看跌期权了,这是我在服务中建议的。如果走势发展得好,我可能会加仓。我可能会在某个我无法交易期权的海外 K 上加杠杆基金。所以我可能会加仓。但是,当我们到达下方,如果你真正感兴趣的是做多,那就要非常小心。再说一次,它 99% 可能会失败。只要在到达 56 区域时观察市场,寻找反转,以便在跳入之前获得紧密的止损,或者如果你想在这里买一点,止损设在 47,那也合理,只是你知道,股票的问题在于它们不是 24/7 流动交易,所以我对限价买入然后设止损的问题是,如果盘后跳空下跌,你可能会得到非常糟糕的价格。这就是问题所在。对于股票,我尤其想看到反转。以防你在它真正起作用之前隔夜被套,然后跳空下跌,退出时价格糟糕。
原话 35:11 ›
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