CRDO的增长潜力（FY27为85%）和产品管线超过其风险（客户集中、现金消耗），使其成为高风险高回报的买入标的。
逐段跳播
好了，现在我们可以继续看第三只股票，这是一家半导体行业中不太知名的公司。其市值不到 500 亿美元。与 Broadcom 非常相似，它公布了利润，市场对其进行了惩罚，而且理应如此，不是吗？
我认为，例如对于 Broadcom，惩罚它的理由是合乎逻辑的。我不会对该股过于悲观，但我能理解市场为何惩罚它。这只股票也是如此。
Okay, now we can move on to the third stock, which is a less well-known company in the semiconductor industry. Its market value is less than $50 billion. Much like Broadcom, it announced its profits and the market punished it, and rightly so , wasn't it? I think that for Broadcom, for example, the reason for penalizing it is logical. I wouldn't be too pessimistic about the stock, but I can understand why the market is punishing it. The same applies to this stock.
因此，我仔细研究的股票是“Crido”，其代码为 CRDO。他们制造高速芯片和通信电缆，帮助连接 AI 数据中心内的图形处理单元、适配器和内存。因此，它们在很大程度上代表了那种网络解决方案。
他们拥有主要合作伙伴，全球最大的五家数据中心运营商与他们合作。
Therefore, the stock I took a closer look at is " Crido", and its symbol is CRDO. They manufacture high-speed chips and communication cables that help connect graphics processing units, adapters, and memory within AI data centers . Therefore , they largely represent that network solution. They have major partners, with five of the world’s largest data center operators working with them .
现在，如果我们看这些数字，收入数据非常惊人。收入达到 4.79 亿美元，同比增长 115%。环比增长 10%，因此你会继续看到这种增长。最重要的是，下一季度的指引为 5.25 亿美元，这将再次代表接近 100% 的同比增长。
对于整个财年，由于他们刚刚完成第一季度，他们预计 2027 财年的年增长率至少为 85%。
Now, if we look at the numbers, the revenue figures were insane. Revenues reached $479 million, an increase of 115% year-on-year. It has increased by 10% on a quarterly basis, so you will continue to see this growth. Most importantly, the guidance for the next quarter was $525 million , which would represent nearly 100% year-over-year growth once again. For the entire year, and because they have just finished the first quarter, they are estimating annual growth of at least 85% for fiscal year 2027.
所以，增长是巨大的。正如我们将要讨论的，他们在各个领域拥有多样化的产品组合，这正是让我真正兴奋的地方。但我真的很想谈谈为什么市场最初惩罚了他们。其中一个重要因素是客户集中度。他们的四大客户约占其总收入的 80%，对吧？
So, there is tremendous growth. As we will discuss, they have a diverse range of products in all areas, and that is what really excites me. But I really want to talk a little about why the market punished them in the first place. One of the big things is customer focus. Their four largest customers account for about 80% of their total revenue, right
不幸的是，正如我们在 Lam Research 和 Broadcom 身上看到的那样，只有有限数量的客户需要并购买 Credo 以及所有这些半导体公司提供的产品。因此，我认为这种客户集中在这个市场是可以预期的。
Unfortunately, as we saw with Lam Research, and as we saw with Broadcom, only a limited number of customers need and purchase the products offered by Credo and all these semiconductor companies. Therefore, I think this customer focus is to be expected in this market.
我们看到的另一件事是，该公司拥有约 14 亿美元现金。幸运的是，他们没有债务，但本季度这一数额下降了超过 50%。市场感到害怕。你们是否在研发上投入过多？是否进行了过多的收购？
我们喜欢你们的其中一点是你们强劲的资产负债表。现在，尽管没有债务，你们却将现金流削减了一半。
The other thing we saw was that the company had about $1.4 billion in cash. Fortunately, they have no debt, but that amount has decreased by more than 50% this quarter. The market is feeling scared. Do you invest a lot in research and development? Do you make too many acquisitions? One of the things we liked about you is your strong balance sheet. Now, despite having no debts, you have cut your cash flow in half.
他们在这里进行了一次与光学领域相关的一次性收购，并希望用现金支付而不是借款。这是一次性的事情，我不认为这是一个大问题。这显然是一个需要密切关注的警示信号。这个曾经非常强劲的预算是否正在变弱？
同样，这目前是一个警示信号，但不一定让我过于担心。
They made a one-off acquisition here, related to the field of optics, and wanted to pay in cash rather than borrow. It's a one-time thing, I don't consider it a big problem. It is clearly a warning sign that calls for close monitoring. Is this budget, which was very strong, getting weaker? Again, this is a warning sign at the moment, and not necessarily something that worries me too much.
另一件事是，我们看到毛利率受到轻微影响。毛利率降至约 64%，但他们预计今年剩余时间的利润率将在 67% 至 69% 之间。
The other thing is that we saw gross profit margins affected slightly. Gross profit margins fell to around 64%, but they expect profit margins for the rest of the year to be between 67% and 69%.
市场有权惩罚你，因为研发已成为这一人工智能故事的主要部分。对利润率任何下降的恐惧都被视为弱点。这也被视为可能有人正在夺取市场份额。这让我们看到，现在这正在变成一场价格战，而不是供需战。
The market has the right to punish you, because research and development has become a major part of this artificial intelligence story. The fear of any decline in the margins is seen as a weakness. It is also seen as possibly someone acquiring a market share. This makes us see that it is now turning into a price war instead of a supply and demand war.
所以，这些是财报公布后股价遭受损失的一些主要原因。盘后交易中，股价下跌了 20%。现在，让我解释为什么我对这家公司如此兴奋。首先，正如我提到的，对于今年，即 2027 财年，他们已经预计年增长率约为 85%。
现在，最让我兴奋的实际上是明年，即 2028 财年。因为在 2028 财年，他们有许多新产品问世。他们将在 2028 财年推出硅光子学设计并增加。像 NPL（代表近光束光学）这样的东西非常令人兴奋。
他们还计划在 2028 财年推出 Active LED Cables、LLC。然后还有很多内存解决方案，如 Omni Connect，他们表示这也将在 2028 财年开始产生收入。
所以，你拥有半导体行业不同领域的巨大产品组合，所有这些领域都在某种程度上经历供应限制。而你告诉我，即使在那批产品上市之前，仅今年一年它就会给我带来 85% 的年增长。
So, these are some of the main reasons why the stock suffered when earnings were announced. After trading hours, the stock fell by 20%. Now, let me explain why I'm so excited about this company. First of all, as I mentioned, for this year, which is fiscal year 2027, they are already estimating annual growth of around 85%. Now, what makes me most excited is actually next year , fiscal year 2028. Because in fiscal year 2028 they have many new products coming. They have silicon photonics designs that will come into play and increase in fiscal year 2028. Things like NPL, which stands for near- beam optics, are very exciting. They also have Active LED Cables, LLCs, planned for fiscal year 2028. Then there are lots of memory solutions like Omni Connect, which they say will also start generating revenue in fiscal year 2028 . So you have a huge basket of different sectors in the semiconductor industry, all of which are experiencing supply constraints in one way or another. And you're telling me that even before that basket hits the market, it will give me 85% annual growth this year alone.
所以，这是一家高风险、高回报的公司，Rachel。我喜欢它，但竞争显然是真实存在的。无论如何，对我来说，增长的机会远远超过许多这些风险。
So, this is a high-risk, high-reward company, Rachel. I like it, but the competition is clearly real. Regardless, the opportunity for growth for me far outweighs many of those risks.
如果这家公司你不熟悉，这是一家在过去几年中收入发生重大转变的企业。我的意思是，他们从几年前约 2 亿美元的年收入增长到现在的累计超过 10 亿美元。我们看到管理层已将明年的收入预测提高到超过 80%。
所以，这是一家经历了非常快速崛起的公司，这在很大程度上归功于其业务性质以及它所服务的客户，这些客户在这种受限、高需求的环境中运营。所以，他们相互促进，但非常重要的是要理解，这不是一家直到最近才以这种速度增长的公司。
If this company isn't familiar to you, this is a business that has seen a significant shift in its revenues over the past few years. I mean, they've gone from about $200 million in annual revenue a few years ago to more than $1 billion now on a cumulative basis. We see that management has raised its revenue forecast to more than 80% for next year. So, this is a company that has experienced a very rapid rise, and much of that is due to the nature of its business and the customers it serves who operate in this restrictive, high-demand environment. So, they feed off each other, but it is very important to understand that this is not a company that has been growing at this pace until very recently.
现在，如你所知，Jose 指出了那里的客户集中度。他们的第一个客户约占其收入的 30%。我认为，如你所知，Jose，你关于这一领域客户集中动态的观点非常精彩。这是我们经常谈论的风险。
我认为，如果你投资我们今天讨论的任何这些公司或其任何竞争对手，记住这一点并将其纳入你的投资论点中非常重要。
Now, as you know, Jose pointed out the concentration of customers there. Their first customer represents about 30% of their revenue. And I think, as you know, Jose, you made a great point regarding the dynamics of customer concentration in this area . It's a risk we talk about a lot. I think it's really important to keep that in mind and include it in your thesis if you're investing in any of these companies we're talking about today or any of their competitors.
其中许多（但并非全部）是盈利且受到良好保护的公司，它们正在推动这一需求，并且正是它们从 Credo、Broadcom 和 Lam 等公司购买这种产能。这造成了一种客户集中的动态，但这些也是该领域的大玩家。
因此，如果你将资金投入这类企业，我认为你应该对此感到放心。
Many, but not all, of them are profitable and well-protected companies that are driving this demand, and they are the ones buying this capacity from companies like Credo, Broadcom and Lam. This creates a dynamic where there is a concentration of customers, but these are also the big players in the field. So, this is something I think you should be comfortable with if you're putting money into these types of businesses.
但我认为 Credo 是一家有趣的公司。我同意它涉及更高的风险，你知道，以及潜在更高的回报。但我也认为它可能是今天名单上真正经历我们目前在 AI 行业看到的一些物理瓶颈的选择，你知道，现在。
But I think Credo is an interesting company . I agree that it involves higher risks, you know, and potentially higher returns. But I also think it's probably the choice on today's list that's really experiencing some of the physical bottlenecks we're seeing in the AI industry , you know, right now.
Credo 利用了这样一个事实：一旦你将所有这些图形处理单元放在一组中，让它们足够快地相互通信是一个巨大的工程问题，而这是他们帮助解决的。
Credo takes advantage of the fact that once you have all these graphics processing units in one set, getting them to talk to each other fast enough is a big engineering problem, and this is something they help solve.
这些是我今天审视这项工作时想到的想法。她肯定在我的观察名单上。
So, these are the thoughts that came to me when looking at this work today. She is definitely on my watchlist.
他说在等什么
这个频道对 $CRDO 的历次判断
The Motley Fool 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。