$CRDO

CRDO 凭借强劲基本面(三位数增长、利润率持续扩张)以及抛售后的合理估值,符合投资组合标准,可考虑买入或持有。

看涨
《The Fastest-Growing Chip Stock Is Also the Most Hated》
Chip Stock Investor发布 2026-09-15 · 14 段内容
00:07/ 打开原视频

逐段跳播

14 段内容
0:0712:44

我们做了一次实际演示,展示你会如何使用 Credo Technologies 的那个平台。

We did a practical walkthrough of how you would use that platform with Credo Technologies.

但这两家或许可以称为新的小博通的公司,Astera Labs 和 Credo Technology,其中真正大幅下跌的是后者。

But the two companies that maybe we could call new Baby Broadcoms, Astera Labs and Credo Technology, the one that has actually sold off pretty hard.

我们来看看 Credo。这张图突出了每项指标上的领先者。Credo 是增长最快的那家,最近一个季度同比增长百分之一百一十五,但它也是最近下跌的那家。

Let's just take a look at Credo. This thing highlights who the leaders are in each metric. Credo is the one that's growing at the fastest rate, hundred and fifteen percent year over year in the most recent quarter, but it's the one that sold off recently.

至于 Credo,在落后于巨头博通的三家较小公司中,它的营业利润率其实相当不错,营业利润率为百分之二十五。这三家公司的自由现金流转化率恰好都在最近一个季度约为百分之十七到百分之十八。对于快速增长的扩张型企业来说,这不算差。

As for Credo, the operating margin is actually quite good of the three smaller companies that lag behind the giant Broadcom, operating margin at twenty five percent. Free cash flow conversion across all three just so happen to be about seventeen to eighteen percent in the most recent quarter. Not bad for fast-growing scaling businesses.

而且资产负债表上还有一些净现金,没有 Astera 那么多,但你可以看到七亿六千四百万。看这些公司,Credo 是下跌的那家。它增长最快。

And there's also some net cash on balance here, not quite as much as Astera, but where you can see seven hundred and sixty-four million. Looking at these companies, Credo is the one that has sold off. It's growing the fastest.

Credo,如果你按上一页的步骤走一遍,了解一下这家公司,你就会知道这是一家无晶圆厂的芯片设计商。他们还为其有源电缆授权 IP。

Credo, if you go through the steps on the previous page, learn about the company, you'll know this is a fabless designer of chips. They also license IP for their active electrical cables.

他们为 AI 数据中心网络供应有源电缆和其他网络技术。

They supply active electrical cables and other networking technology for AI data center networking.

而 Credo 的收入无疑正以非常快的速度增长,远超行业平均水平。但是,这无疑是一门周期性生意,尽管当前的成长周期掩盖了这一点。所有与 AI 数据中心相关的东西都在上涨,并且预计在可预见的未来会继续如此。

但基于这个行业的历史常态,我在这里插一面黄旗,因为我们应该预期未来某个时点收入会开始变得起伏不定。这不是一项经常性订阅销售业务或类似的东西。

And Credo most definitely the revenue is growing at a very fast pace, well in excess of the industry average. But, this is most definitely a cyclical business, even though the current growth cycle is masking that.

All things AI data centers are going up and expected to continue to do so for the foreseeable future. But based off of the historical norms for this industry, I'm just gonna put a yellow flag here because we should expect at some point in the future revenue to start to get lumpy.

This is not a recurring subscription sales business or something like that.

收入增长达到三位数。这真的很棒。营业利润率在扩大。自由现金流在扩大。每股利润在扩大。资产负债表健康。是的,该股已经下跌,但这仍然符合我们将其纳入投资组合的标准。因此,在这一点上,它可能是我们有兴趣买入的标的。

Revenue growth is in the triple digits. That's really fantastic. Operating margin is scaling. Free cash flow is scaling. Per share profit is scaling. The balance sheet is healthy.

Yes, the stock has sold off, but this still meets our criteria for something to be in our portfolio. And so at this point, it could be something we are interested in buying.

这是一家新公司,所以没有太多可追溯到过去周期的历史。这两项指标正在缓慢趋同。它们列在这里的顶部,即过去十二个月的每股收益和每股自由现金流。我就保持默认设置,将两者按五五开混合,并预期随着公司成熟,这两个数字会随时间继续趋同。

This is a new company, so there's not a ton of history going back to past cycles. The two metrics are slowly converging. Those are listed here at the top, the trailing twelve-month earnings per share and free cash flow per share.

I'm just gonna leave this at the default of a fifty/fifty blend between the two and expect these two numbers continue to converge over time as the company matures.

所以我们求解的是今天的当前股价,恰好略低于 171 美元。未来三年需要多高的平均增长率才能让我们达到公允价值?就目前而言,基于这一当前假设,未来三年是 58%。

So we're solving for the current stock price today, which happens to be just shy of $171. What is the average growth rate over the next three years to get us to fair value? And as of right now, based on this current assumption, it's 58% for the next three years.

Credo 确实提供了一些指引。他们仍预计新财年收入增长 70%、80%。

Credo did provide some guidance. They're still projecting 70, 80% revenue growth for their new fiscal year.

对我们来说,这是在一轮相当大幅的抛售之后,看起来又回到了某种大致合理的区间。当然,我们需要关注这样一个事实:如果 AI 数据中心建设步伐严重放缓,Credo 的收入增长,以及可能还有他们已扩大到相当健康水平的部分利润率,很可能撑不住。

For us, this is one after a pretty major sell-off that looks like it's kind of back within a somewhat reasonable range. Of course, we would need to focus on the fact that if there is a severe slowdown in the pace of AI data center build-out, Credo's revenue growth and probably some of their profit margins that have scaled to a pretty healthy margin are probably not going to stand.

但就目前而言,这仍将是我们会继续在投资组合中持有的标的,并将其列入观察名单。我认为我们的投资组合中已经持有完整仓位。但如果我们没有持有,它会是我们有兴趣买入的标的。

But as of right now, this will be something that we're gonna continue to hold onto it in the portfolio and stick it on the watchlist. I think we have a full position already in our portfolio.

But if we didn't have it, it would be one we're interested in buying.

观察点

AI数据中心建设速度
严重放缓
未来周期关于AI基础设施支出的行业报告
若需求放缓则削弱看涨逻辑,因为营收增长和利润率可能无法维持
未来三年的营收增长率
按当前价格计算,公允价值要求平均达到58%
未来三年季度财报
若增长超过58%则支持该逻辑;若低于则削弱

这个频道对 $CRDO 的历次判断

Chip Stock Investor 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。

2026-09-15看涨本条
我们做了一次实际演示,展示你会如何使用 Credo Technologies 的那个平台。
看完整历史 ›
美股听风