Salesforce相对于其历史估值倍数被低估,具有显著的上涨潜力。
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在今天的视频中,我将分享我对即将到来的财报周的看法,我会关注哪些股票,以及我可能会在后续的详细视频中深入分析哪些股票,其中包括对英伟达的深入分析,以及一些可能成为价值股的受挫软件股,比如Intuit和Salesforce。
In today's video, I'm going to give you my thoughts on this upcoming earnings week, the stocks I'll be watching and that I'll likely cover in detailed follow-up videos that includes an extended look at Nvidia and some beaten down software stocks that could be value plays companies like Inuit and Salesforce.
自从AI编程代理问世以来,基本上人们一直认为软件公司现在价值降低了。有人认为竞争可能会很快加剧。还有一个问题是,这些公司能否以今天完全相同的商业模式继续存在。所以像Intuit和Salesforce这样的公司(我稍后会讨论)曾被视为优质公司。它们以溢价倍数交易,因为人们认为它们拥有可靠的订阅收入,长期来看会持续增长。现在一些投资者开始质疑这一点。但这可能正是长期投资者的机会所在。
Since AI coding agents came out, basically, the thought has been that software companies are now less valuable. There's thoughts that there could be increased competition coming very quickly. And there's also a question about whether these companies can exist in the same exact business model they do today. So companies like in it and Salesforce which I'll discuss later, these were viewed as premium companies. They traded at premium multiples cuz they're thought to be reliable subscription revenue that was going to be there in the long run continue growing. And now some investors are questioning that. But that could be the opportunity for the long-term investor.
Salesforce,股票代码CRM,也在周三盘后公布财报。Crowd Strike,股票代码CRD,是另一家公布财报的公司。那是一家网络安全公司。我在这里更深入地谈谈Salesforce。这是最大的纯企业软件公司。它就像是企业软件即服务股票的典型代表。当然,它随着更广泛的SaaS末日叙事而下跌,尽管最近几周它和其他股票一起反弹了。那是因为它看起来非常便宜。这是一只市场中的复利股。可靠的订阅收入同比增长10%到15%。五年期收入增长率为12.7%,公司开始产生大量自由现金流,过去12个月为146亿美元,同比增长15%。尽管股价大幅下跌,但其自由现金流处于历史高位。公司最近开始派发股息,但派息仍然很小。股息收益率为0.84%。我会做一期完整的Salesforce视频,那将在财报公布之后。现在,我只是先给你一个预览。我目前的看法是,我认为这只股票仍然便宜。过去五年,Salesforce交易的市盈率中位数(这是每股收益,过去12个月,调整后每股收益)是33.43。目前是15.09。这意味着如果股价回升到那个水平,隐含公允价值将是463美元,这意味着从这里上涨121%。顺便说一句,如果看10年期间,它的交易倍数甚至更高。但公平地说,在2016年到2021年这段时间,公司的营收增长更快,而且当时的估值也稍微更不理性。我们处于零利率时代。但从2022年开始,Salesforce股票的估值一直相当合理。所以,它的交易价格远低于那5年期间。基于自由现金流也是如此。基于自由现金流,Salesforce看起来非常便宜。
Salesforce, ticker symbol CRM, that's also Wednesday after market close. Crowd Strike, ticker symbol CRD, that's another company reporting. That's a cyber security company. I'm going to dive in a little bit more on Salesforce here. This is the largest pure enterprise software company. It's like the mental meme of what a software as a service enterprise stock is. And of course, it sold off along with the broader SAS apocalypse narrative, although it has rebounded along with the others in recent weeks. And that's because it's looking dirt cheap. This has been a compounder in the market. Reliable subscription revenue growing 10% 15% year-over-year. Five-year keer revenue is 12.7% and the company has started generating a ton of free cash flow 14.6 billion dollars over the trailing 12 months up 15% year-over-year. And while the stock has traded off a ton, it's free cash flows at all-time highs. The company has recently started paying a dividend, but still a small payout. It's a 0.84% dividend yield. I'll be doing a full Salesforce video. That will be after the earnings report. Right now, I'm just going to give you a little preview. And my insight right now is that I think the stock is still cheap. Over the past five years, the median multiple that Salesforce has traded at, this is earnings per share, trailing 12 months, adjusted earnings per share. The median multiple is 33.43. It's currently 15.09. That means if the stock jumps back up to that, it would be an implied fair value of $463, which would be 121% upside from here. And by the way, if we go over the 10-year period, it's traded at an even higher multiple. But to be fair, in this 2016 to 2021 period, the company was growing faster on the top line and also valuations were a little more irrational then. We were in the ZERP era. But from 2022 on, the valuations have been pretty reasonable on Salesforce stock. So, it's trading well below that 5-year period. And this is true based on free cash flow, too. Based on free cash flow, Salesforce is looking super cheap.
Crowd Strike,股票代码CRD,是另一家公布财报的公司。那是一家网络安全公司。我在这里更深入地谈谈Salesforce。这是最大的纯企业软件公司。它就像是企业软件即服务股票的典型代表。
Crowd Strike, ticker symbol CRD, that's another company reporting. That's a cyber security company. I'm going to dive in a little bit more on Salesforce here. This is the largest pure enterprise software company. It's like the mental meme of what a software as a service enterprise stock is.
当然,它随着更广泛的SaaS末日叙事而下跌,尽管最近几周它和其他股票一起反弹了。那是因为它看起来非常便宜。这是一只市场中的复利股。可靠的订阅收入同比增长10%到15%。五年期收入增长率为12.7%,公司开始产生大量自由现金流,过去12个月为146亿美元,同比增长15%。
And of course, it sold off along with the broader SAS apocalypse narrative, although it has rebounded along with the others in recent weeks. And that's because it's looking dirt cheap. This has been a compounder in the market. Reliable subscription revenue growing 10% 15% year-over-year. Five-year keer revenue is 12.7% and the company has started generating a ton of free cash flow 14.6 billion dollars over the trailing 12 months up 15% year-over-year.
尽管股价大幅下跌,但其自由现金流处于历史高位。公司最近开始派发股息,但派息仍然很小。股息收益率为0.84%。我会做一期完整的Salesforce视频,那将在财报公布之后。现在,我只是先给你一个预览。我目前的看法是,我认为这只股票仍然便宜。
And while the stock has traded off a ton, it's free cash flows at all-time highs. The company has recently started paying a dividend, but still a small payout. It's a 0.84% dividend yield. I'll be doing a full Salesforce video. That will be after the earnings report. Right now, I'm just going to give you a little preview. And my insight right now is that I think the stock is still cheap.
过去五年,Salesforce交易的市盈率中位数(这是每股收益,过去12个月,调整后每股收益)是33.43。目前是15.09。这意味着如果股价回升到那个水平,隐含公允价值将是463美元,这意味着从这里上涨121%。
Over the past five years, the median multiple that Salesforce has traded at, this is earnings per share, trailing 12 months, adjusted earnings per share. The median multiple is 33.43. It's currently 15.09. That means if the stock jumps back up to that, it would be an implied fair value of $463, which would be 121% upside from here.
顺便说一句,如果看10年期间,它的交易倍数甚至更高。但公平地说,在2016年到2021年这段时间,公司的营收增长更快,而且当时的估值也稍微更不理性。我们处于零利率时代。但从2022年开始,Salesforce股票的估值一直相当合理。所以,它的交易价格远低于那5年期间。
And by the way, if we go over the 10-year period, it's traded at an even higher multiple. But to be fair, in this 2016 to 2021 period, the company was growing faster on the top line and also valuations were a little more irrational then. We were in the ZERP era. But from 2022 on, the valuations have been pretty reasonable on Salesforce stock. So, it's trading well below that 5-year period.
基于自由现金流也是如此。基于自由现金流,Salesforce看起来非常便宜。
And this is true based on free cash flow, too. Based on free cash flow, Salesforce is looking super cheap.
他说在等什么
他自己说在等的东西,一段话一条记录。同一件事说过几次就出现几次,我们不合并,也不判断它有没有兑现。
这个频道对 $CRM 的历次判断
Dividend Data 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。