CRM发布强劲的季度业绩（三项指标均超预期）引发财报后股价大幅上涨，但市场对其在AI颠覆下维持增长的能力仍持怀疑态度。
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我们有 Salesforce，它不断向人们提出一个问题：软件已死吗？在 AI 世界中，对于那些理论上可以被替代的公司而言，是否存在真正可持续的增长？这需要 Salesforce、ServiceNow 等所有公司来证明这种叙事是错误的。
We have Salesforce which continues to uh ask people the question you know is software dead is there real sustainable growth in the world of AI for companies that theoretically can be replaced again that's up to Salesforce service now all these companies to prove that narrative is wrong
在此期间，我们应该会收到 Salesforce、Synopsys、CrowdStrike 以及其他几家公司的财报，它们实际上将非常重要。
In the meantime, we should be getting Salesforce, Synopsis, Crowd Strike, uh, and a few others that are actually going to be pretty important.
好的，Salesforce 已经开始上涨 4%。该股今年低点时为 150 美元。盘后涨幅达到 4.5%。我稍后会尝试获取 Salesforce 的具体数据，但它变绿了（上涨）。
Okay, Salesforce already making the move 4%. The stock was at 150 at the lows this year. That is up four and a half% after hours. I'll try to get the numbers on Salesforce in a second, but that goes green.
好的，来看 Salesforce，开始了。营业利润为 38.7 亿美元，而预期为 38.1 亿美元，这是一个超预期表现。调整后每股收益为 5.90 美元，而预期为 2.91 美元。
其中肯定计入了一些未实现收益。他们在每股收益上超出了 80%，营收为 113.4 亿美元，而预期为 113.2 亿美元。营收同比增长 12%，每股收益同比增长 103%。也许他们持有 SpaceX 的股份。
我知道他们持有 Anthropic 的股份，但在该公司上市之前，我不确定……不，技术上我认为他们可以按市值计价 Anthropic 的价值。所以也许是 Anthropic 为他们创造了这个超预期表现。
然后第三季度营收，华尔街预期为 114 亿美元，他们指引为 115 亿美元。所以在指引、营收和每股收益上都是三重超预期，该股盘后上涨 5.6%。
Okay, so Salesforce, here we go. We have um operating income 3.87 billion versus 3.81. That's a beat. Adjusted EPS 590 versus 291. There's got to be some unrealized gains that they've factored into that. They beat by 80% on EPS, 11.34 versus 11.32 on revenue. Revenue is up 12% year-over-year. EPS is up 103% year-over-year. Maybe they had a SpaceX stake. Um I know they have an anthropic stake but until that one goes public I don't know if they well no technically I think they can uh mark to market their value on enthropic. So maybe it's anthropic that's creating that uh beat for them. And then third quarter revenue the street wanted 11.4 they're guiding for 11.5. So that is a triple beat on the guide revenue and EPS that stock is up 5.6% after hours.
然后第三季度营收，华尔街预期为 114 亿美元，他们指引为 115 亿美元。所以在指引、营收和每股收益上都是三重超预期，该股盘后上涨 5.6%。
And then third quarter revenue the street wanted 11.4 they're guiding for 11.5. So that is a triple beat on the guide revenue and EPS that stock is up 5.6% after hours.
还有 OpenAI，两名 OpenAI 高管离开 OpenAI 回到了 Salesforce。相当惊人。不，我是说有很多猜测认为 IPO 可能不会那么令人兴奋。嗯，你知道，人们怀疑他们取代 SAS 的能力。
但是谁知道呢？也许 Salesforce 正在把这些家伙挖回来，并交出漂亮的数字，以便重新留住这些高管。我不确定。我认为现在下结论还为时过早。
and Open AI, two OpenAI executives leave OpenAI and go back to Salesforce. Pretty wild. No, I mean there's there's a lot of speculation whether the IPO is not going to be as exciting. Um, you know, disbelief in their ability to replace SAS and that but but who knows? Maybe maybe Salesforce is poaching these guys back and putting up big numbers in order to sign back these executives. I'm not sure. I think it's too early to tell.
也许 Salesforce 正在把这些家伙挖回来，并交出漂亮的数字，以便重新留住这些高管。我不确定。我认为现在下结论还为时过早。
Maybe maybe Salesforce is poaching these guys back and putting up big numbers in order to sign back these executives. I'm not sure. I think it's too early to tell.
那里有来自 Salesforce 战略投资的 2.4 到 4 美元的影响。那肯定是 Anthropic。
Right there a 12 $2.4 $4 impact from strategic investments from uh Salesforce. That's got to be entropic.
以下是 Salesforce 的覆盖情况。该季度营收为 113.4 亿美元，而预期约为 113.2 亿美元。底线是，我们有一个调整后每股收益数字，应该是 5.90 美元。那是调整后的数字。
我们不打算比较这个。据我们所见，有一笔巨大的投资收益，约 26 亿美元。看起来是来自对……的投资
Here's the coverage on Salesforce. It was 11.34 billion in revenue for the quarter versus about 11.32 on the estimate. Bottom line, we've got an adjusted EPS number, $5.95.90, I should say. That is the adjusted number. We're not going to compare this one. There is from what we're seeing a massive investment gain about $2.6 billion. It does appear to be from an investment in
你可以使用 Cloud Force 不仅查询你的系统，还能动态构建应用程序。这在行业中确实是首创，Jim。我们从未见过类似的东西。这完全令人兴奋。我认为这就是未来所有企业系统的运行方式。
That you can use Cloud Force to not only query your systems, but build applications dynamically. It's really a first in the industry, Jim. We've never seen anything like it. It's completely exciting. I think that this is the way all enterprise systems are going to run in the future.
我们从未见过 Dario 在财报电话会议上这样做。如果他在 Beni 不在场的情况下真的愿意与媒体交谈，那么这个合作伙伴关系对他们一定意味着什么。
we've never seen Daario do this on an earnings. So this partnership must mean something to them if he's actually willing to talk to the media with Beni off here.
Salesforce，业绩很棒。但我确实想问你，我知道通常我应该问 Mark，但我想问问 Dario。你知道，有关于 SAS 末日论的说法，我们曾以为你会摧毁 Mark。我知道 Mark 对你有大额投资，但我一直在等你让他破产。你怎么看 SAS 末日论？
Salesforce, fantastic numbers. But I do want to ask you, I know I norally should ask Mark this, but I want to get to Dario. You know, there's this whole SAS apocalypse thing of which we thought that you were going to destroy Mark. I I know Mark has a big investment in you, but I was waiting for you to put him out of business. What do you think about the SAS apocalypse thesis?
我们无意摧毁任何人。我们认为这是一件非常积极的事情，这就是市场运作的方式，我们正在创造新的价值。问题不在于摧毁谁，而在于这些巨大的收益如何在不同的人和不同的公司之间分配。我们的理念一直是希望与客户合作，赋能客户与我们共享这些收益，因此我们已经以多种方式与 Salesforce 进行了合作。
我们是 Salesforce 的大用户，Salesforce 也是 Claude Code、Co-work 及其他工具的大用户。我们已经在 Slack（Salesforce 的一部分）中推出了 Claude Tag 等产品。
现在的这种结合是一种获得更大价值的途径，可以说是“1+1>3”，整体大于部分之和。我认为这才是看待事物的正确方式。
We're not interested in destroying destroying anyone. uh you know we think of this as a very positive something right that's the way that's the way markets work we're creating new value here and and the question is just you know how it's not about destroying anyone it's about how much of these enormous gains go to various various people and various companies and our philosophy always has been that we want to work with our customers we want to empower empower our customers to share these gains with us and so we've already worked with Salesforce in a number of ways. We're big users of Salesforce. Salesforce is big users of Claude Code, of Co-work, of other tools. We've put products like Claude Tag in Slack already, um, which is which is a part of Salesforce. And now this combination is a way to to gain something that's, you know, it's 1 plus 1 equals 3, something that's bigger than the sum of its parts. And and I think that's the right way to think about things.
我认为还有一点必须补充：首先，这不是我们与 Anthropic 的首个产品，我们已经与他们共同开发了几款令人兴奋的产品，包括 Slack Code。但 Jim，你必须这样想：Salesforce 是一个非常确定性的系统，它关乎安全、规则、治理和工作流——如果发生 A，就会发生 B，这是关于确定性的。
而你现在拥有的是这个不可思议的概率性系统，即大型语言模型，这是 Dario 构建的这项不可思议的技术，它是非确定性的。但当把这两者结合在一起时，让一个概率性的 LM 和 AI 与像 Salesforce 这样的确定性系统完美协作，其结果是惊人的。
我们以前从未见过这种力量，我们的客户将能够动态地构建这些令人惊叹的新应用程序。
I think another point you have you really have to add to that which is that >> number one this isn't our first product you know with Enthropic we've got a several products with them that we're so excited that we built including Slack code but Jim you have to think of it like this Salesforce is very much a deterministic system it's a system that is all about security and rules and governance and workflows and if this happens that happens it's about determinism And you now you have this incredible probabilistic system, these large language models, you know, this incredible technology that Daario has built. It's non-deterministic. But when you put these two things together, the idea that you could have a probabilistic LM and AI that's working now perfectly with a deterministic system like Salesforce, the result is incredible. We we would never have seen this kind of power and our customers are going to be able to build these amazing new applications dynamically.
Neil，你相信 Dario 所说的他们并不试图扼杀软件公司吗？如果你回顾他在 X 上发的长文并阅读他写的内容，我并不惊讶他突然出现在电视上试图解释这一切，尤其是当你正试图在一两个月内上市的时候。
所以我不感到意外。我是说，去年 Salesforce 宣布与 OpenAI 合作，现在又有了与 Anthropic 的合作。好吧，挺酷的。但归根结底，Salesforce 最好小心点，因为我很确定 Anthropic 和 Dario 在毁掉他们的业务方面不会犹豫不决。
Neil, you trust what Dario is saying here that they're not trying to kill software companies. Um, if you go back to his very long post on X and you read what he wrote there, I'm really not surprised that suddenly he's popping up on on TV trying to explain all of this, especially not when you're trying to go public in a month or two. So, I'm not surprised. I mean, last year Salesforce announc announced something a collaboration with Open AIS and now they have something with Entropic. Okay, cool. But at the end of the day, Salesforce better watch their back because I'm pretty sure that uh Entropic and Dario are not going to think twice about ruining their business.
我是说，那会有点疯狂，对吧？如果 Anthropic 推出一款竞争的 CRM，也许 Benny 这样做是为了建立一种关系，从而为 Anthropic 提供合法性，因为企业级市场有进入渠道，同时也确保 Anthropic 不会背后捅刀子。
但话说回来，商业世界是残酷的。如果他们真的这么做，那会相当令人惊讶。
I mean, that that would be kind of crazy, right? If Anthropic comes out with a competing CRM, maybe Benny off did this to kind of create a relationship that would uh legitimize Anthropic because there's a go to market in the enterprise and also make sure Anthropic doesn't stab them in the back. But then again, you know, business is kind of ruthless. If they were to do that, it would be quite surprising.
Salesforce 仍然上涨。我是说，你仍然看到软件股 Salesforce 上涨了 13%。上次 Salesforce 达到 232 美元是在今年一月。实际上，得追溯到去年十二月。
所以，距离 Salesforce 触及这些水平已经有一段时间了。
Salesforce still up. I mean, you're still seeing the software name Salesforce up 13%. Last time Salesforce was at $232, uh, January of this year. Actually, got to go back to December of last year. So, it's been a while since Salesforce hit these levels.
Salesforce 显然在这里获得了大幅波动，Jensen 几个月来一直表示这些公司不会消亡。
Salesforce obviously getting a big move here that Jensen has been saying for for months now that these companies are not going to be dead.
这个频道对 $CRM 的历次判断
Jose Najarro Stocks 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。