$CRM

CRM被低估(目标价458),近期财报实现名义超预期及RPO增长,促使进一步买入。

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Meet Kevin发布 2026-08-26 · 33 段内容
03:01/ 打开原视频

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33 段内容

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3:01每一格是一段原话 · 点一下跳到视频的那个位置95:13

Salesforce 今天将发布财报。

Salesforce will be reporting today.

Salesforce 在过去 24 小时内略有下跌。你可以看到 Salesforce 这里的上升趋势是紧随一段非常漫长的下跌趋势之后出现的。

Salesforce did move down a little bit in the last 24. You can see this uptrend we have on Salesforce right here is really coming after a very very long downtrend.

记住,Salesforce 以大约 196 到 191 美元左右的基准价格回购了约 250 亿或 260 亿美元的自家股票。

Salesforce, remember, bought back like 25 or 26 billion dollars of their own stock at roughly uh 196 191 basis somewhere around there.

我们可以看到 Salesforce 针对这只股票的长期目标价为 458 美元。它被严重低估了,但如果他们的财报中出现任何干扰,股价就会暴跌。

we could see Salesforce long-term target for this 458. It's It's pretty undervalued, but if there's any disruption that ends up showing up in their earnings, the thing's going to tank.

这就是他们买入的价格。他们以 3 月 11 日的收盘价作为购物基准。所以 2026 年 3 月 11 日大概就在这里。价格在 189 到 195 美元之间。我需要查看日期图表才能找到 3 月 11 日,这没问题。

我们可以很快做到这一点。3 月 11 日就在这里。这是他们买入的日子。这实际上是一个波动很小的日子。在 190 到 194 美元之间是他们买入的那一天。所以基本上你最终看到 Salesforce 对自家股票进行全仓押注(YOLOing),我的意思是,坦率地说,如果你看现在的股价,你支付的溢价相对于他们购买自家股票的价格来说并不多。

This is what they bought for. They bought for the closing price on March 11th is where they went shopping. So March 11th of 2026 is right about here. That's somewhere between 189 to 195. I'd have to really go to the date chart to get March 11th, which is fine. And we could do that really quick. March 11 is right here. This is the day they bought. This is actually a tight day. Between 190 and 194 is the day that they bought. So that's when you ended up getting Salesforce basically yoloing it on their own stock, which I mean, frankly, if you look at where the stock is now, you're not paying much of a premium over what they paid for their own stock.

现在,我们在 Salesforce 大约 160 美元的位置有一些敞口,对此我们非常兴奋。它实际上先跌后涨,但我是说,这就是股票市场会发生的情况。

Now, we got some exposure to Salesforce down at about 160, which we're really excited about. It actually ended up going lower before it went up, but I mean, that's just what happens with the ston uh market.

我们先从 Salesforce 更好的自由现金流用途开始。嗯,但我理解投资者的胃口,你知道,他们看看 Apple 和其他历史案例,那里有一个大的催化剂,并且有下一个催化剂的空间。

We'll start with Salesforce better uses for their free cash flow. Um, but I understand like investor appetite, you know, they look at Apple and other things in history where a big catalyst and sort of there's room for the next one.

Salesforce,呃,第三季度营收超出预期。第三季度指引超出预期。订阅和支持收入增长 11%。第二季度营业利润超出预期。剩余履约义务未达预期。为 663 亿美元,而预期为 676.6 亿美元。

Salesforce, uh, Q3 Q3 revenue beats estimates. Q3 forecast beats estimates. Uh, subscriptions and support up 11%. Q2 operating income beats estimates on operating income. Remaining performance obligations missed. Uh, 66.3 billion versus 67.66.

剩余履约义务未达预期。663亿美元,而预期为676.6亿美元。一旦提到“未达预期”这个词,我就觉得股价会暴跌。通常都是这样。我现在没看盘,不知道它发生了什么。我有点想拉出来看看情况如何。

Remaining performance obligations missed. Uh, 66.3 billion versus 67.66. As soon as you say the word miss, I feel like the stock just tanks. That's usually what happens. I I don't I don't have it up right now. I don't know what's happening to it. I kind of want to like pull it up and see what's going on.

无论如何,调整后营业利润率为34.1%,而预期为33.6%。这是超预期。这很好。Salesforce Q2调整后每股收益为5.9美元,而预期为2.9美元。太棒了。这很好。这是超预期。

But anyway, um, adjusted operating margin comes in at 34.1 versus 33.6. That's beat. That's good. Salesforce Q2 adjusted EPS comes in at 5.9 versus 2.9. Let's go. That's good. That's a beat.

Salesforce Q2调整后每股收益为5.9美元,而预期为2.9美元。太棒了。这很好。这是超预期。嗯,那是同比数据,但仍然非常好。

Salesforce Q2 adjusted EPS comes in at 5.9 versus 2.9. Let's go. That's good. That's a beat. Uh, well, that's a year-over-year, but that's that's still really good.

嗯,那是同比数据,但仍然非常好。Q3指引超预期。Q2订阅和支持收入超预期,为108.2亿美元,而预期为107.2亿美元。专业服务未达预期,为5.25亿美元,而预期为5.34亿美元,这部分业务规模较小。我在想那是否是AI部分。

Uh, well, that's a year-over-year, but that's that's still really good. Uh, Q3 forecast beats. Q2 subscription and support revenue beats at 10.82 billion versus 10.72. professional services misses at 525 versus 534 smaller portion of the business. I wonder if that's the AI portion though.

Q3指引超预期。Q2订阅和支持收入超预期,为108.2亿美元,而预期为107.2亿美元。专业服务未达预期,为5.25亿美元,而预期为5.34亿美元,这部分业务规模较小。我在想那是否是AI部分。

Uh, Q3 forecast beats. Q2 subscription and support revenue beats at 10.82 billion versus 10.72. professional services misses at 525 versus 534 smaller portion of the business. I wonder if that's the AI portion though.

所以我想看到当前剩余履约义务(RPO)增长14%,且财年营收指引上调。这里的中值从约402.5亿美元上调至462.5亿美元。这大约是5%的上调。

So I want to see that current remaining portion of RPO remaining performance obligations is up 14% and fiscal year revenue projection is a raise. The midpoint raise here is 46.25 up from about 40.25. So that's about a 5% raise.

太棒了。看看这个。Salesforce跳涨了7%。让我们冲啊。

Boom, baby. Look at that. We got a 7% jump on Salesforce. Let's freaking go.

我想我们今天早上实际上又买了一点,增加了一些敞口。让我们冲啊。

Uh I think we actually just bought a little bit got a little bit more exposure to that this morning. Let's freaking go.

我认为Octa和Salesforce的超预期幅度不算大,但也不是真正的糟糕未达预期,对吧?其指引确实表明他们需要在广告上花钱,以便在Salesforce和Octa方面重新回到客户面前。你并没有真正看到这一点。所以这很好。

The beats, I'd say on Octa and Salesforce are like not huge, but they're not really like bad misses, right? uh like into its forecast really suggested that they needed to spend money on advertising and kind of getting back in front of customers here with Salesforce and Octa. You didn't really have that. Uh so that's good.

CRM和Anthropic推出了Claw Force。哦,你是认真的吗?哦,那很酷。好吧,我们稍后也会把它记下来。但这真的令人兴奋。

Uh CRM and anthropic launch Claw Force. Oh, are you serious? Oh, that's cool. Okay. Well, we'll we'll write that down too in just a moment. But that's really exciting.

所以,Salesforce目前在加拿大还不可用。总有一天,我们的Homes AI会在加拿大可用。好吧,让我看看这里的Salesforce。所以,Salesforce,我们已经过了一遍这些数字了。

So, Salesforce does doesn't work in Canada yet. One day, our homes AI will work in Canada. Okay, let me look at Salesforce here. So, Salesforce uh so we already went through these numbers.

Benioff刚刚在X上宣布了Cloud Force。好的。呃,宣布……抱歉,是Claude Force。搞什么鬼?谁想出这些该死的名字的?Claude Force。好吧,Claude Force通过Claude无头运行Salesforce。

Claude获得对Data 360、Tableau、Slack以及所有Salesforce杂项数据的直接受控访问权限,无需离开聊天界面。

Uh Beni off just announced Cloud Force on X. Okay. uh announces sorry claude Claude Force. What the hell? WHO COMES UP WITH THESE FREAKING NAMES? Claude Force. Okay, Claude Force runs uh Salesforce uh headlessly uh through Claude. Claude gets direct governed access to data 360, Tableau, Slack, and all your sales force crap without leaving the chat.

好吧。那么,Salesforce营业利润率。让我们写下更多这里的实际超预期数据。来吧,宝贝。天哪,我真希望我在160美元时多买一些。总是这样。总是这样。你知道,你买入一只股票,然后它下跌,你就想,该死,我应该少买点。

你买入一只股票,然后在下次财报时它像Palantir一样飙升。你知道,我们在大约118美元时买了很多Palantir,然后它飙升到170美元,感觉就像,拜托,我还没买够呢。

All right. So, Salesforce operating margin. Let's write Let's just write down some more of these uh actual beats right here. Come on, baby. Man, I wish I bought more at 160. That always happens. That always happens. You know, you buy like literally you buy a stock and and then it goes down and then you're like, damn, I should have bought less. You buy a stock and it freaking skyrockets on the next earnings like Palanteer. You know, we bought a bunch of Palunteer at like, I don't know, 118 and then it skyrockets up to 170 and it's like, come on, man. I wasn't done buying yet.

至于调整后每股收益,我的意思是与一年前相比,它几乎翻倍了。我会把它写下来。调整后每股收益从一年前的2.91美元几乎翻倍至5.90美元。你也知道,他们还进行了一些劳动力重组,很多人都在做这件事,甚至现在也在做。

All right, so focus focus. Okay, let's do the numbers here on uh where are we? Okay. So, let's do the numbers on Salesforce. Okay. Salesforce numbers. I already talked about the numbers, but I didn't write them down. I should have, but okay. We have Salesforce operating margin at uh 34.1% versus 3.6. I have uh RPO uh grows 14% uh though that misses slightly misses expectations and then I have subscriptions beat subscriptions beat at 1082 billion that's tiny though divided by 10.79 that is uh about 28 basis point beat. So like super not tiny, right? As far as adjusted EPS, I mean that's comparing to a year ago it's like doubled. Uh I mean I'll write it down. Adjusted EPS nearly doubles from a year ago to 590 from 291. You know they've also done some workforce restructuring which a lot of people are doing even into it's doing right now.

营收超预期,剩余履约义务(RPO)增长14%。好的。所以这里有一些值得深入剖析的内容。但我认为,与 Crowd Strike 相比,这并非只是名义上的小幅超预期。虽然相对于 Crowd Strike 而言只是名义上的超预期,但表现依然非常出色。我会说,这有助于重申第三季和第四季的业绩底线。

Salesforce forecast the forecast at midpoint is forecast Q3 is 1146 billion 1146 divided by 11.42 is about a 35 basis point beat. So, it's kind of nominal, but it it is, you know, it's it's it's up, you know, it's still a beat. The revenue beat, RPO 14%. Okay. So, there's going to be some stuff to look at and take apart over here. But, um, I think what it is is it's not like this is all relatively nominal in terms of how much it's beating compared to Crowd Strike. Nominal beats compared to, uh, Crowd Strike, but still really good. Uh, and I would say it it helps reiterate the Q3 Q4 floor.

哦,等等。Salesforce,伙计们。涨了13%。天哪,我的意思是,我知道我今天已经加仓了,但我还想买更多。该死。

Oh, wait. Salesforce, dude. 13. God, I I mean, I KNOW I BOUGHT MORE TODAY, BUT I WANTED TO BUY MORE. DAMN.

Salesforce 仍然上涨13%。

Salesforce is still up 13%.

对吧?你知道的,你买入 Crowd Strike 和 Salesforce——我们持有这两只股票——然后它们在财报后分别上涨了11%和13%,接着你就会想:该死,我真希望当时买得更多。这是旧闻了。

right? like you know you buy Crowd Strike in Salesforce which we own and then it goes up 11% and 13% after earnings and then it's just like damn I wish I had more you know old news.

所以,我们会稍后再讨论 Salesforce 和其他股票。

So, we'll do Salesforce and and the others later,

以上 33 段为这条视频中谈及 $CRM 的全部内容。逐字对不上字幕的段落不会收录。

这个频道对 $CRM 的历次判断

Meet Kevin 在这只股票上共 3 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

2026-08-26看涨
就个人而言,公平地说,我持有 CrowdStrike 和 Salesforce 的头寸。Salesforce 上涨了 14%,CrowdStrike 上涨了 11%。我确实发送了买入和卖出警报,主要是针对这些股票的买入警报。
原话 02:18 ›
2026-08-26看涨本条
Salesforce 今天将发布财报。
2026-08-24看涨
你会注意到Salesforce和软件实际上,嗯,尽管这里有内存抛售,但仍然保持得很好。
原话 26:41 ›
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这一页只记录说话人自己说过的话,不做判断、不下结论。研究辅助,非投资建议。
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