$CRM

Salesforce强大的竞争护城河(机构记录)可抵御AI颠覆,支持利润率扩张,使其在当前价格下成为良好投资。

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The SaaSpocalypse Isn't What Investors Think.
New Money发布 2026-09-06 · 7 段内容
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7 段内容
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恭喜,你确实在一天之内赚了数百万美元,这要归功于一只崩盘的软件股,我透露一下,就是Salesforce。它录得了惊人的数字。

congratulations, you literally made millions of dollars in one day thanks to a crashed software stock called, I'll reveal, Salesforce. It has recorded incredible numbers.

当像Salesforce这样的股票崩盘时,我感兴趣的是,你如何区分公司真正的错误估值和由于某种原因而便宜的东西?

I'm interested when a stock is crashing like Salesforce, how do you distinguish between a genuinely mis-valuation of the company and something that's cheap for some reason?

是的,这就是问题的关键,因为它总是由于某种原因而便宜。问题是,原因是什么?这个问题会持续多久?这正是我们真正深入研究的内容。有趣的是,巴菲特是如何确定这个问题的答案的。它是由竞争无法真正替代的内在特征所定义的。

他们现在正试图用人工智能攻占这座堡垒,但他们做不到,因为他们代表着制度性的记录。他们追踪的所有这些记录对整个公司的运营都至关重要。如果你没有这些,我不在乎你有什么样的人工智能,你无法替代它们。

Yes, that's the crux of the matter because it's always cheap for some reason. The question is, what is the reason? How long will this problem last? This is what we really delve into. It is interesting how Buffett determined the answer to this question. It is defined by intrinsic characteristics that competition cannot truly replace. They are trying to storm the fortress with artificial intelligence now, but they cannot because they represent the institutional record. All those records they track are essential to the entire company's operations. And if you don't have that, I don't care what kind of AI you have, you can't replace these.

我们意识到,其中一些公司并不具备这一点,而且它们确实面临被替代的危险。我们看到这些人拥有巨大的护城河,保护他们免受人工智能竞争的冲击。不仅如此,他们自己也将能够使用人工智能工具。

他们真正需要应对的只是改变他们因所提供的东西而获得报酬的方式。他们正在这样做。因此,你不能没有他们。他们必须存在。那么问题就变成了你打算付给他们多少钱。我们认为这才是我们投资面临的真正风险:这些人的报酬方式会不会发生根本性的改变?

然后我们意识到,这正是“堑壕战”(竞争优势)所要保护的,也就是它的收费多少。它存在的目的是保护利润率。这些人所拥有的竞争优势对任何公司都极其重要。公司至少得付给他们原来支付的报酬,如果不是更多的话,不是吗?

We realized that some of them did not have that and that they were in real danger of being replaced. We saw that these people have a huge moat protecting them from artificial intelligence competition. Not only that, but they will also be able to use artificial intelligence tools themselves. What they really need to deal with is simply changing the way they are paid for what they provide. They are in the process of doing so. Therefore, you cannot do without them. They must be present. Then the question becomes simply how much you are going to pay them. We believed that this was the real risk to our investment: Could there be a radical change in the way these people are paid? Then we realized that this is exactly what "trench warfare" (competitive advantage) is meant to protect, and that is how much it charges. It exists to protect profit margins. The competitive advantage these people possess is extremely important to any company. The company will have to pay them back at least what it was paying them, if not more, won't it?

与此同时,Salesforce的运营费用可能会受到人工智能的非常积极的影响。因此,我们可能会看到他们的利润率扩大。他们的利润率不太可能收缩。我们不会看到他们的收入下降。他们的价格非常好。所以,是的,我们认为这是一件好事。

At the same time, Salesforce's operating expenses may be affected by artificial intelligence in a very positive way. Therefore, we may see an expansion in their profit margins. It is unlikely that we will see a contraction in their profit margins. We will not see a decrease in their revenues. Their price was very good. So, yes, we thought that was a good thing.

对于Salesforce来说,问题的结束比我们想象的要快,因为华尔街将开始意识到人工智能不会影响他们。是什么让你对“Salesforce”或任何其他股票有信心?是什么让你相信他们已经拥有经济缓冲,并且能够度过这个阶段?

For Salesforce, the end of the problem is happening faster than we thought, as Wall Street will begin to realize that artificial intelligence will not affect them. What gives you confidence in the case of "Salesforce," or in any other stock in general? What gives you confidence that they already have an economic buffer, and that they will be able to get through this phase?

所以,我对像Salesforce这样的公司,或者你最终买入的任何公司感兴趣。不一定非得是Salesforce。安全边际这个概念是什么,你实际上是如何应用它的?你怎么知道Salesforce——当然,它可能是一家伟大的公司——它的定价也使它成为一项好的投资?

So, I'm interested in, say, a company like Salesforce, or any company you end up buying. It doesn't have to be Salesforce. What is this concept of the margin of safety, and how do you actually apply it? How do you know that Salesforce —it could be a great company, of course—is also priced to make it a good investment?

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2026-09-06看涨本条
恭喜,你确实在一天之内赚了数百万美元,这要归功于一只崩盘的软件股,我透露一下,就是Salesforce。
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