CRM 值得买入，营收增速加快至 13%，利润率扩张，而 14.6 倍远期市盈率的估值相对历史水平仍具吸引力。
逐段跳播
Salesforce 管理层向投资者表示，公司有望在 2027 年下半年及以后再次加快营收增长。管理层还重申了到 2030 年实现 630 亿美元营收的目标。
Salesforce management informed investors that it is on track to accelerate revenue growth again in the second half of 2027 and beyond. Management also reaffirmed its goal of generating $63 billion in revenue by 2030.
与之相伴的是强劲的营业利润率，预计今年下半年以及整个当前财年将达到约 34%。那么，这一切是否让 Salesforce 股票成为一个买入机会？
This is accompanied by strong operating profit margins, which are expected to reach approximately 34% for the second half of the year and for the current fiscal year as a whole.
So, does all this make Salesforce stock a buying opportunity?
Salesforce 营收增长的放缓引起了投资者的担忧。
The slowdown in revenue growth at Salesforce has caused concern among investors.
在最近几个季度，其营收增长率接近不到 10%，但管理团队成功地在上一季度将这一增长加速至 13%，而且他们现在预计未来增速还会加快。
In recent quarters, their revenue growth rate approached less than 10%, but the management team succeeded in accelerating this growth to 13% in the last quarter, and they now expect the rate to accelerate in the future.
对于担心 Salesforce 会成为受人工智能冲击、并失去大量市场份额的公司之一的投资者来说，这是一个令人欣慰的迹象。
This is a welcome sign for investors who feared that Salesforce would be one of the companies that would be hurt by artificial intelligence and lose a significant market share.
据管理层称，情况恰恰相反。他们的营收正在重新加速，他们正在整合人工智能并说服客户使用这些 AI 增强型服务，从而提高每位用户的平均售价。
According to management, the opposite is true. Their revenues are accelerating again, and they are integrating artificial intelligence and persuading customers to use those AI-enhanced services, raising the average selling price per user.
近年来，Salesforce 在提升营业利润率方面做得非常出色。我在上一个已结束的季度提到了 34% 这个数字。这明显高于此前 12 个月 21.5% 的平均水平。
In recent years, Salesforce has done a remarkable job of boosting its operating profit margins. I mentioned a figure of 34% in the last completed quarter. This is significantly higher than the previous 12-month average of 21.5%.
管理团队在 2022 年对业务进行了重组。Salesforce 通过重组业务、控制成本和限制招聘来为经济衰退做准备，而那段时期所做的这些改善后来带来了丰厚的回报。
The management team restructured the business in 2022. Salesforce prepared for the recession by restructuring its business, controlling costs, and restricting hiring, and those improvements made during that period paid off handsomely afterwards.
公司公布了营业利润率的增长，并预计这些利润率未来将继续改善。这也使公司在最近 12 个月期间实现了 12.7% 的更高投入资本回报率。这是 Salesforce 有史以来的最高水平。
The company announced growth in operating margins and expects those margins to continue improving in the future. This also allowed the company to achieve a better return on invested capital of 12.7% in the last 12-month period.
This is the highest level ever recorded for Salesforce.
在过去六个月左右的时间里，他们在消除外界对该业务将被人工智能淘汰的担忧方面做得非常出色。
They have done a great job in the last six months or so in dispelling fears that this business will be wiped out by artificial intelligence.
它曾是因“软件即服务”（SaaS）时代终结而股价大幅下跌的主要公司之一，而这一时代早在 2026 年就已出现。
It was one of the major companies that experienced a significant drop in share price as a result of the "end of the Software as a Service" (SaaS) era, which occurred as early as 2026.
Salesforce 的股价在 6 月中旬暴跌至每股 150 美元以下。如今它正回升至每股 232 美元以上。
Salesforce's stock plummeted to below $150 per share in mid-June. It is now rising back above $232 per share.
当然，在整个股价暴跌期间，我制作了视频重申我对 Salesforce 的“买入”评级，指出这些担忧被夸大了，风险是真实存在的，被颠覆的可能性很大，而且 Salesforce 需要适应不断变化的环境。
Of course, throughout the stock price crash, I made videos reaffirming my "buy" rating for Salesforce, pointing out that the fears were exaggerated, the risks were real, the risk of disruption was likely, and that Salesforce needed to adapt to changing conditions.
但更便宜的估值使这一持仓在权衡风险与回报时对投资者具有吸引力。自那以后，股价经历了大幅飙升。我上一次评估该公司是在 8 月 27 日，当时我满怀信心地确认了这一买入评级。
But the cheaper valuation made the position attractive to investors when balancing risk against reward. Since then, the stock price has experienced a significant surge. I last evaluated the company on August 27th, confirming that buy rating with complete conviction.
鉴于近期股价大幅上涨，Salesforce 的估值也随之上升。该股目前的预期市盈率为 14.6，按这一指标衡量，仍接近该股多年来交易的最低水平。
Given the recent surge in the share price, Salesforce's valuation has also increased. The stock is now trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 14.6, which is still close to the lowest levels at which the stock has traded according to this metric over the years.
因此，那些与人工智能以及使用人工智能的公司（如 OpenAI、Anthropic 等）相关的风险，以及 Salesforce 被完全超越并被整合进这些系统的风险，依然存在。
Therefore, those risks related to artificial intelligence and companies that use it, such as OpenAI, Anthropic, and others, and the complete overtaking of Salesforce and integration into those systems, still exist.
问题在于，Salesforce 在缓解其中一些担忧方面做得不错，它向投资者解释称，公司正努力将这类产品整合进自身的服务中，从而为现有客户带来更具吸引力的价值主张。
The thing is, Salesforce has done a good job of allaying some of those concerns, explaining to investors that it is working to integrate these types of products into its own services, making them a more attractive value proposition for existing customers.
企业客户往往倾向于留在他们已有往来的供应商那里，因为更换平台或从一个供应商转向另一个供应商需要耗费大量时间、精力和努力。即便另一家供应商承诺为客户提供更好的价值，它也必须好得多，才能弥补这种倾向、这种留在当前供应商、留在当前系统的惯性，而 Salesforce 正是利用了这一点。
Enterprise customers tend to stick with the suppliers they deal with because changing platforms or switching from one supplier to another requires a lot of time, energy, and effort.
Even if that other supplier promises to offer better value to customers, it needs to be much better to compensate for that tendency, that inertia to stay with the current supplier, to stay with the current systems, and Salesforce takes advantage of that.
我也更新了对 Salesforce 贴现现金流的评估。我目前对公司的估值为每股 280 美元。当前市场价格为 233 美元。因此，我计算出 Salesforce 股价在未来 12 到 18 个月内约有 20% 的上涨空间。
I have also updated my assessment of Salesforce discounted cash flows. I am currently valuing the company at $280 per share. The current market price is $233. Therefore, I have calculated an increase of approximately 20% over the next 12 to 18 months for Salesforce stock.
那么，回答我在标题中提出的问题，我仍然认为该股代表着一个买入机会，我今天将确认这一评级。
So, to answer the question I posed in the title, I still believe the stock represents a buying opportunity, and I will confirm that rating today.
观察点
这个频道对 $CRM 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。