CRWD被低估;华尔街低估了AI驱动的网络安全需求及CRWD通过Falcon平台捕获该需求的能力,这将导致快于预期的增长。
逐段跳播
这条视频里关于 $CRWD 说的每一段,按说话顺序排列。点任意一行,上面的视频跳到那一刻。
哎呀,CrowdStrike 上涨了约 10%。尤其是考虑到所有正在发生的网络安全新闻。这并不太令人惊讶。我们持有 CrowdStrike 和 Salesforce 的头寸,对此我们非常兴奋。
这些家伙表现极佳,因为我们一直在发送逢低买入它们的警报。
Oopsy dupsies and Crowd Strike up about 10%. Uh especially with all the cyber security news going on. Not terribly much of a surprise. We've got exposure to Crowd Strike and Salesforce which we're really excited about. These guys just kicking butt cuz we've been sending out alerts for buying the dip on these.
我的意思是,你现在在 CrowdStrike 上已经赚了 14%,这很棒,而且这将提振其他网络安全概念股。
Uh I mean, you're up 14% now on Crowd Strike, which is great and and that's going to lift the other cyber security plays as well.
当我在谈论它的时候,天哪,CrowdStrike。该死。它一直在飙升。嗯,你知道,我很兴奋,因为我们持有它,但我内心总是有一种挣扎,觉得我希望当时我买得更多,对吧?
As I'm talking about it, dude, freaking Crowd Strike. Damn it. It keeps pumping. Uh which, you know, like I'm excited about because we own, but then I I always have this like struggle inside where it's like I wish then I had more, right?
CrowdStrike 上涨 17%。
Crowd strike 17%.
我真的很想通过一个联合视频或主题来梳理一下网络安全和 Salesforce。这两者都在飙升。我都持有。显然它们是大赢家,但如果能看到一些我们在这些公司的财报电话会议上获得的笔记就好了。
I really want to go through cyber uh and Salesforce maybe as sort of like a joint vid or topic. The both of them are skyrocketing. Own both of them. Uh, obviously they are a big W, but it'd be nice to see some of the notes that we're getting from the earnings calls on these.
CrowdStrike 和 Cerebras 今天宣布了一项战略合作伙伴关系,连接了业界领先的 AI 原生安全平台和世界上最快的 AI 推理。没错。CrowdStrike 将利用 Cerebras 业界领先的推理速度来帮助驱动 Falcon AI 检测和响应。
Crowd Strike and Cerebrris today have announced a strategic part strategic partnership between the industry's leading AI native security platform and the world's fastest AI inference. Right. Crowd Strike will leverage Cerebrus' industryleading inference speed to help power Falcon AI detection and response.
那太棒了。虽然 Cerebras 标准化使用 CrowdStrike Falcon 平台来保护其业务,这没问题。所以,他们也会使用那个。两家公司共同将推理速度与 AI 原生安全相结合,面向企业并大规模部署。
太棒了。网络安全已被 AI 改变。防御 AI 等等……推理是 AI 创造价值的地方,而网络安全是速度至关重要的最清晰例子之一。安全不能排队等待。
That's freaking awesome. While Cerebrris standardizes on the Crowdstrike Falcon platform to secure its business, right, that's fine. So, they'll use that as well. Together, the companies are pairing infant speed with AI native security for enterprises and deploying it at scale. Hell yeah. Cyber security has been changed by AI. Defending against AI blah blah blah inferences where AI creates value and cyber security is one of the clearest uh examples where speed matters. Security cannot wait in the queue.
那些快速增长的工具呢?Kodak、Claude、Agentic,我们看到 Claude 的增长多了 400%。好吧。等等,这在我们的端点业务里吗?这就是我刚才说的。这就是为什么我对它们如此兴奋。
嗯,在我们的端点业务连续第四个季度加速,因为客户寻求保护 AI 攻击面。我们看到端点工作负载急剧扩展,既通过像 Codex 和 Claude 这样快速增长的工具,也通过 Agentic 应用程序。
在我们的抽样中,我们看到云端使用量增长了超过 400%,端点上自定义代理使用量增长了超过 100%。哇,那是在最近几个月。是的,我的意思是,Claude 在第一季度末确实爆发了,对吧?
企业寻求部署这些新技术,而不是转而信任 CrowdStrike。
What about fast fast fast growing tools Kodak Claude Agentic we're seeing 400% more growth in Claude. Okay. Wait is this in our endpoint. See that's what I literally said. That's why I got so excited about them. Uh in our uh our endpoint business accelerated for the fourth consecutive quarter as customers look to securing AI attack surface. seeing a dramatic a dramatic expansion in the work on endpoint both through fast growing tools such as codeex and claude as well as agentic applications in our sampling we've seen more than 400% growth in cloud usage and more than 100% growth in custom agent usage on endpoints wow and that was in in in recent months yeah I mean claude did boom at end of Q1 right enterprises look to deploy these new technologies instead of turning trust in crowd strikes.
这里有一条关于 Claude 的有趣笔记,把它记下来。有客户告诉我们,时点姿态扫描已不再足以保护我们免受如今在数秒内迅速蔓延的快速移动威胁。
So, this is uh this is an interesting note here on claude. Let's write that down. I've got customers tell us that point in time posture scans are no longer enough to protect us from fastmoving threats that now proliferate in seconds.
一家大型科技集团选择使用 Falcon Cloud Security,以利用其运行时优势,这是一笔八位数的订单。
A mega technology conglomerate opted to use Falcon Cloud Security for our runtime superiority in an eight figure win.
Mythos 时刻正在改变市场对暴露管理的需求,对过时的漏洞管理施压。完全同意。这确实是 AI 对网络安全的巨大助力。
The Mythos moment transform the market needs for exposure management pressuring antiquated vulnerabilities for the bygone era. Totally agree. This is such AI is such a boon for cyber
拐点已变为加速。新的基准线。这句话听起来像是用 AI 写的。ARR 创历史新高。我确实想知道他们的净收入留存率是如何增长的。哦,找到了。Flex 订阅模式正在加速。不,那是 101% 的增长。
这是 Falcon 的增长。所以,Falcon 的增长翻倍了。我想知道我们能否在这里获得分部收入,看看它贡献了多少。
Inflection has become acceleration. New bars. That's a nice little line that honestly sounds like they wrote it with AI. Alltime new record ARR. I do wonder their net revenue retention how that grew. Oh, there it is. Flex subscription model accelerating. Oh, no, that's 101 year. That's that's growth on Falcon. So, Grow Falcon's doubling. I wonder if we can get segment revenues here and see how much that um provides.
我们正处于一场军备竞赛中。AI 正在推动更多的网络攻击。AI 也在推动更多的 AI 支出、AI 网络安全支出。是的,正是如此。就像这样,投入攻击的 AI 支出越多,投入防御的就越多,对吧?这实际上挺聪明的。
We're in an arms race. AI is driving more cyber attacks. AI is driving more uh AI spending. AI cyber security spending. Yeah, exactly. It's it's like, you know, the more AI spending goes into the attacks, the more goes into the defense, right? It's actually kind of brilliant.
那么这份未经审计的 10-Q 表格……让我看看,我能找到分部明细吗?质量工程师、顾问……哦,当然可以,太棒了。是的,我觉得咨询业务非常受 AI 帮助,因为你实际上可以让人类专家介入,让人类在 AI 循环中发挥作用。现在拥有 AI 的这项业务真不错。
So the 10 Q unodudited where any let me see can I get segment breakdown quality engineer consultant oh for sure that's awesome yeah consulting I feel like is so aided by AI because you can actually get a human expert who can put you know the human in the loop on AI that's a great business to be in now with AI.
好的。我们需要分部信息。我看到美国占收入的 65%。分部信息:单一报告分部。很好。很好。就在这里。你可以看到他们没有细分,只有一个报告分部。所以我们无法单独看到 Falcon 的数据,然后我们可以看到美国占 65%。
Uh okay. So we need segments. I see us is 65% of revenues. Segment information single reporting segment. Great. Great. So that's right here. So you could see that they don't segment out uh single reporting segment single segment. So we don't get to see Falcon broken out and then we can see it was 65% United States.
哎呀。哦,收入可能更多来自美国。在哪里?哦,在那儿。找到了。是的,65% 的收入来自美国。好的。除了美国之外,没有其他单个国家占公司总收入(三个月或六个月期间)的 10% 以上。
没有单个国家。哦,好吧。好吧。超过 10%。对。因为这里的某些地区超过了 10%。好的,没问题。
Oops. Oh, the revenue is actually might be much more US. Where was it? Oh, there. There it is. Yeah. 65% of revenue US. Okay. No single other country other than the United States represents 10% of war of the company's total revenue during the three and six months. No single country. Oh, okay. Okay. More than 10%. Right. Because you've got regions over here that exceed 10%. Okay, that's fine.
让我们继续浏览这些书签。这里有这个。这是指引。我们已经知道 Q2 的情况,Asenture 针对中小企业聚焦的边缘业务采用了 CrowdStrike 标准。
Let's go go keep going through these bookmarks here. So, we got this. This is guidance. We kind of already know Q2 asenture standardized on crowd strike for SMB focused edge business.
让我们看看 AWS、Google、Microsoft 的市场营销推广方式。我们的每个超大规模云市场合作伙伴都看到了创纪录的第二季度,因为客户使用他们选择的云提供商进行安全投资。
好的。所以我对此的理解是,你基本上可以通过你的云提供商访问 CrowdStrike 数据和平台。
let's see marketplace goto motion across AWS, Google, Microsoft. Each of our hyperscaler marketplace partners saw record Q2 as customers use their hyperscaler of choice for security investments. Okay. So my understanding there is you could basically get access to this the crowd strike data and platform through uh you know through your cloud provider.
CrowdStrike。好的。嗯,在各种超大规模云平台上的市场。我想会有市场……嗯,市场,大概是用来访问 CrowdStrike 的,可能是 Falcon,因为他们在这里提到了这一点。
Crowd strike. Okay. uh marketplace on various hyperscaler uh platforms. I guess there would be mark yeah market marketplaces to access crowd strike presumably falcon because they're talking about that here.
好的,快速看了一下 Microsoft 市场的进展,我们在结束的这个好季度里看到了这一点。好的,我们把市场情况写下来。这是 Microsoft。澳大利亚医疗保健提供商开始使用 CrowdStrike 7iG Flex。
一家美国制造公司通过 Microsoft 市场上的七位数 Flex 协议扩展了 Falcon 的使用。哇。嗯,看到通过 AWS 或 Microsoft 达成的七位数交易。嗯,基本上是从老式的安全和信息事件管理平台转向 CrowdStrike。这说得通。
okay quickly saw traction with Microsoft marketplace we saw that in closing great quarter okay this is the let's just write down the marketplace this was Microsoft Australian healthcare providers started using Crowd Strike 7ig Flex. American manufacturing company has expanded to using Fal Falcon through a sevenfigure flex on Microsoft marketplace. Wow. Uh seeing seven figure deals through AWS or Microsoft. uh basically moving from old school uh security and event management platforms to Crowd Strike. That makes sense.
嗯,基本上是从老式的安全和信息事件管理平台转向 CrowdStrike。这说得通。Falcon,我这里还有另一个数据片段。上面说 Falcon 传感器收集了端点上 80% 到 85% 的安全相关数据。
然后他们添加额外的第三方数据。好的。你基本上可以从这些地方拉取数据。所以,我的意思是,是的,你知道,从这些里面拉取 Falcon 数据,然后为你拉取的内容付费。好的。嗯,市场基本上利用了 Falcon 数据。
嗯,但我认为这里的想法是他们想向你出售整个包。所以,这会包含在他们的管理套件中。这说得通。我认为这是一种公平的说法。
uh basically moving from old school uh security and event management platforms to Crowd Strike. That makes sense. Falcon, I have this other data piece here. It says Falcon sensor collects 80 to 85% of security relevant data from endpoints. Uh then they add on extra third party data. Okay. You can basically pull from. So, I mean, yeah, you know, pull Falcon from these and then you pay for what you pull. Okay. Uh, the marketplaces and, uh, utilize Falcon data essentially. Uh, but I think the idea here is that they want to sell you the package. So, this would be in their their sort of management suite. that makes sense. I think that's a fair way to put it.
你基本上可以从这些地方拉取数据。所以,我的意思是,是的,你知道,从这些里面拉取 Falcon 数据,然后为你拉取的内容付费。
You can basically pull from. So, I mean, yeah, you know, pull Falcon from these and then you pay for what you pull.
嗯,市场基本上利用了 Falcon 数据。嗯,但我认为这里的想法是他们想向你出售整个包。所以,这会包含在他们的管理套件中。这说得通。我认为这是一种公平的说法。
Uh, the marketplaces and, uh, utilize Falcon data essentially. Uh, but I think the idea here is that they want to sell you the package. So, this would be in their their sort of management suite. that makes sense. I think that's a fair way to put it.
让我们看看还有什么。总之,Falcon 平台是网络安全的基础设施层。在这里。哦,看,很好。我在这里稍微谈到了这一点。无论是前沿权重还是开放权重模型,AI 的采用都在加速,我们仍处于早期阶段。
好的,我同意。对于开放权重和网络安全来说,都是早期阶段。
Let's see what else we have. So, taken together, Falcon platform is cyber security's infrastructure layer. Here it is. Oh, see good. I talk about it a little bit right here. AI adoption is accelerating from frontier weights and openweight models alike and we're still in the earning early innings. Okay, I agree. Early innings for like the open weight and for cyber security.
无论是前沿权重还是开放权重模型,AI 的采用都在加速,我们仍处于早期阶段。好的,我同意。对于开放权重和网络安全来说,都是早期阶段。嗯,我会说前沿模型的改进处于后期阶段,而网络安全处于早期阶段。
是的,我认为这是一个公平的澄清。以及开放权重的早期阶段和早期的开放权重。
AI adoption is accelerating from frontier weights and openweight models alike and we're still in the earning early innings. Okay, I agree. Early innings for like the open weight and for cyber security. Uh I would say late innings frontier um improvement early innings cyber. Yes, I think that's a fair clarification. And early innings open weight and early open weight.
好的,我们上调了净新增年度经常性收入(ARR)。这一上调幅度为1亿美元。本季度的交付情况还算可以,没什么问题。
Okay, we raise our net new ARR. That's a raise to our net new ARR of 100 mil. Delivering the quarter like okay, that's fine.
假设你是一家企业,使用AWS并订阅Falcon NextG或其他平台,这实际上就成了你的网络安全中枢。这样你就无需自行构建其他系统,所有服务都托管在云端,你只需付费即可。本质上就是在AWS上注册、监控中枢并支付费用。这种模式挺不错,让操作变得简单。
so let's say uh you're a business, you go onto AWS, subscribe to Falcon NextG, you know, whatever uh platform and basically that becomes your hub, cyber hub. So that way you don't really have to go build anything else. It it's all hosted over there for you and you could pay for it. Pay for So essentially sign up, monitor hub and pay through AWS. That's kind of cool. Make it kind of easy.
这里的一个亮点是,对于较小的公司来说,由于没有庞大的销售团队,其模式更像是自助服务,就像自助加油一样。而对于规模较大的公司,可能就需要销售团队介入了,比如会有四名部署工程师等人员参与。
So then the cool thing here is then you also have it's kind of like but then then you don't really have a sales team, right? So, it's sort of like kind of for a smaller company, smaller company, it becomes self-service, self-service, like pump your own gas. Uh, bigger probably has the sales team involved. You know, you probably have like f, you know, the four deployment engineers, uh, etc. might get involved.
让我们看看CrowdStrike的数据。现金流方面,净利润明显为正,过去六个月达到5000万美元,得益于巨额递延收入计入经营现金流,相比去年已转为正值。然而,他们在厂房、物业和设备上的支出依然高达2.2亿美元,我不禁好奇他们具体在这些资产上花了多少钱。
So, let's see what else we have. Then we've got Let's go look at the numbers. So, the numbers for Crowd Strike. Here we go. Cash flow cash flow net income clearly positive 50 mil over the last six months that just transitioned to positive from last year cash flow because of the massive deferrals that come in operating cash flow massive plant property and equipment they still spent 220 mil on plant property and equipment I wonder what they spent on that on plant property equipment.
我想看看他们是否提到了厂房、物业和设备。找到了,是关于数据中心和其他计算资源的。是的,他们确实在数据中心上花钱了。包括在建工程、已购买但尚未投入使用的数据中心设备,以及折旧。这很有意思。
Wonder if they mentioned plant property and equipment. Here we go. Data center and other compute. Yeah, they actually spend money on data centers. Construction data center equipment purchased. Data center equipment was purchased. Not yet in service. Depreciation. Interesting.
我猜测这基本上是为了运行他们自己的平台,这样就不必依赖别人,因为显然他们也可以通过Microsoft Cloud或AWS来托管。
I wonder if this is for, you know, basically just running their own platform and then they don't have to rely on somebody else when it's not hosted somewhere else because obviously you could get it through Microsoft cloud or AWS.
好吧,应该说这是数据中心敞口。我也在想,这会不会是数据中心设备的租赁?也许他们自带硬件,但这其实无关紧要。你可以称之为拥有数据中心,或者像Oracle那样租赁数据中心并放入自己的芯片。无论哪种方式,本质区别不大。
All right, so this is data center center exposure I should say. Uh, it could also be like I wonder if they're leases, data center equipment cuz it could be that they brought their own, you know, hardware, but it doesn't really matter. Call it that call it the data center. Call it leasing the data center and putting your own chips in, you know, like the Oracle model or whatever. It doesn't really matter.
好的,这里有业务收购项。他们花8亿美元进行了一次收购。他们收购了谁?
Okay, so we've got business acquisitions. Spent $800 million on an acquisition here. Who' they acquire?
然后是融资活动,有一些股票回购,但这些基本上相互抵消了。你知道,回购量略多于股权激励发行的股票数量。他们的回购比股权激励多一点点。
Then I've got financing activities, some repurchases of stock, but those really just balance out. You know, a little bit more repurchasing than the stock comp. They're issuing a bit more repurchasing than stock comp.
再看资产负债表,我有60亿美元的应收账款和现金。其中包含递延收入。大约有10亿美元的账单。哦,他们现在现金充裕。60亿的现金加应收账款,10亿的当期账单,还有约11亿的长期账单。资产负债表非常健康,真的很棒,令人印象深刻。
And then if we go to income statement, we'll look at in just a second. Balance sheet, I've got six billion in accounts receivable and cash. That's deferred. So I've got about a billion in bills. Oh, they are so cashri right now. Six bill in cash and receivables. 1 billion in current bills, another call it 1.1 billion long-term. Really good balance sheet. Great balance sheet. Really, really good. So, that's impressive.
好的,这是营收增长。营收增长率为1470除以1168.9,得出25%,即25.8%。好的。每股收益(EPS)只有一美分,相当惨淡。但我们来看看预测和估值,因为他们的PEG比率很高。
目前网络安全板块的PEG普遍很高,因为人们愿意为年度经常性收入(ARR),尤其是那些赢得AI红利的ARR公司支付巨额溢价。这使得Palantir看起来反而更便宜。
Okay, then here's the revenue growth. So revenue growth 1470 divided by 1168.9 puts me at 25%. 25.8%. Subscription margins are 22% cost which is nothing cost. Uh these basically break even. Let me see how those subscription costs are changing. 252.4 divided by 1102.9 22.8. So pretty similar. Wait, 22.8 cost 310.69 divided by 14.29 22.1 ah 22.1% cost down from 22.8 last year. So actually that's increasing pricing power right bigger PP so that's good operating expenses grew 1130 divided by 965.8 8 17% uh larger PP Okay. And only a penny here of EPS, which is, you know, pretty dismal. But let's look at the forecast on um the valuation because the PEG ratio for these guys is high right typically uh PEG for cyber right now is really high because people are giving massive uh premiums to ARR especially AI winning ARR plays. Yeah. makes Palunteer look cheaper.
所以,如何调整以应对年度经常性收入的问题是个大难题。增长率是一个因素,更高的倍数是另一个。预计1月27日的EPS为1.25美元。我个人认为这些增长率有点低。24.3% + 22% + 10% + 27.6%,为什么中间有个低谷?
我不知道,但我记下来了。平均下来,华尔街预测的增长率是21%。我认为这个预测低了10%到20%,主要是因为我觉得会有一个巨大的AI拐点,不过没关系。
So, how to adjust for that annual recurring revenue issue is a big issue. Uh growth rates is one. Uh higher multiples would be another 1.25 projected EPS Jan 27 that's for the year. And I personally think these growth rates are a little low. 24.3 + 22 + 10 + 27.6 like why uh why is there a dip? I don't know, but I'll write it down. Divided by 4 21% Wall Street projected growth. I think that's low by 10 to 20% honestly mostly because I think there's a huge AI inflection but that's okay.
这意味着按1.25美元EPS计算,现在的价格很贵。177除以1.25... 哎呀,我算错了吗?不,是对的。222除以1.25。是的,市盈率是177倍。现在真的太高了。就像我说的,PEG比率至少是6或更高。
哇。所以在这些分析师预期下,传统的PEG指标很难看。
So that means they're trading for divided by 1.25. Yeah, pricey right now. 177 38. Uh oops. Did I do this wrong? No, I did that right. 222 basically divided by 1.25. Yeah. 177 on the PE. So it's crazy high right now. It's like like I said, it's like a six or more. 08. Wow. So traditional PEG uh tough here uh on these analyst expectations.
这就是难点所在:你该如何给年度经常性收入(ARR)估值?毕竟你不是每年从零开始。你能证明3倍的PEG合理吗?如果增长率偏差很大呢?举个极端的例子,假设前瞻增长率为50%,接受3倍PEG。
即便如此,177除以50再除以50... 结果还是35。即使这样看起来也很贵。确实很辣眼,看起来很贵。
So this is the struggle where like how do you how do you value ARR? Uh the question is how do you value ARR? You're not starting every year at zero. So you know do you justify a three peg? uh how off are the growth rates, right? If you come in and say, you know, to be extreme, you know, let's let's just say the forward growth rate is 50%. Okay, let's go extreme and say three peg and forward growth of 50%. Okay, that's still uh 177 divided by 177 38 divided by 50 divided by 50 equals it's still a 35. So even that even that looks pricey. Uh the it looks spicy. Does look spicy. Looks pricey.
另一方面,他们去年还在亏损。2025年亏损,2024年只有10美分的盈利,2023、2022、2021年都是负的。所以除了2024年,这其实是他们第一个真正盈利的年份。这带来了一些风险。
如果你从销售额角度看PEG,你会发现公司在刚刚实现盈利时总是看起来最被高估。几乎总是在转向持续盈利阶段时显得高估。
The uh flip side is they just came out of you know losing money even last year. So last year we lost money. You got 2025 lost money. 2024 had 10 cents of earnings. 23 was negative. 22 was negative. 21 was negative. So really outside of 2024, outside of 2024, this is their first profitable year. So you know that has some risk. If you look at this on a sales basis uh for PEG, right, you're going to get the company's always going to look the most overvalued right as it turns profitable. almost always uh will look overvalued as it turns to consistent profitability.
所以我们来看看现金流收益率和销售额。我们的销售额大约是60亿美元。关于自由现金流,考虑到厂房和设备支出... 过去六个月大约是9亿。所以全年的自由现金流大约在18亿左右。为了慷慨起见,我们可以说是20亿。
So that's where you know we could look at let's take a look at a cash flow yield and then let's also look at sales. So we're about six billion in sales. Six billion sales and free cash flow is Uh, so pro property equipment. I'm gonna go with where is it? There it is. In six months, we're at about 900. So about 1.8 billion in free cash flow roughly for the year. You know, call it two to be generous.
CrowdStrike。市值大约2270亿美元。好吧,2270亿除以18亿的自由现金流... 哎呀,算错了。18亿除以2270亿等于... 是的,现金流收益率不到1%。按销售额算,60亿销售额对应2220亿市值,市销率是37倍。
所以无论从哪个角度看,这都是昂贵的。在软件股中,它属于最贵的那一档。除非你认为增长将是爆炸性的,否则这说不通。
Crowd strike. I've got a market cap of 227ish. Okay. So, 227 call it, you know, let's just call it what it is. 1 1.8 227 divided by 1.8. Oops, I did that wrong. 1.1 1.8 divided by 227 equals Yeah. less than 1% cash flow yield. And on a sales basis at 6 billion in sales 222 / 6 37 times sales. So this is like this is pricey you know it's however however you want to look at it. It's it's on the software side. It's one of the pricey one of the pricey ones. It makes sense solely if you think the growth is going to be explosive.
我碰巧认为增长将会非常爆炸性,但我确实很难弄清楚如何将年度经常性收入投射到一个与其他公司相比合理的估值中。有可能它在这一点上真的被严重高估了,但我不这么认为,因为我觉得他们会赚大钱。
我认为市场实际上是正确的。但这并没有创造出最好的折扣机会。
I happen to think the growth is going to be really explosive, but I have I have a real struggle with figuring out exactly how to uh project out these annual recurring revenues into a valuation that makes sense compared to the others. So, it's possible it's just really highly overvalued at this point, but I just don't think it is because I think they're going to crank money. You know, I think the market's actually right about it. That doesn't create the greatest discount opportunity.
让我看看我们是否有净收入留存率。这里提到NR了吗?净收入留存率。没有。NRR。没有。那留存率呢?我们就试试“留存率”这个词。留存率。基于美元金额的净收入留存率。年度经常性收入的同比增长。
你看,你可以看到这里的加速,这些是同比数据。我认为增长会比这更快。我也可能是错的,
Let me see if we have net revenue retention. Do we have NR mentioned in here? Net revenue retention. No. NRR. No. What about retention? Let's just try the word retention. Retention. Dollar base net revenue retention. Year-over-year growth in annual recurring revenue. See, you can see that acceleration here that those are year-over-year numbers. I think it's going to go faster than that. I could be wrong,
但让我们看看他们的指引是什么。我们把他们放到Chrome里。让我查一下。好的。所以,股票方面,我们有Crowd Strike。Crowd Strike的预测。是的,因为他们将ARR增长展望上调至34%。
我就是这个意思。这只是开始。你知道的,他们的增长率。嗯,我认为华尔街平均20%的EPS增长简直是疯了。太低了。在我看来,50%甚至可能都太低了。在Claw……你知道的,那个神话时刻之后。
所以这里的ARR增长是25%,但管理层指引2027年的ARR增长为37……34%。我认为他们会超越这一目标。那是ARR增长。所以明确一点,这里的ARR增长和EPS增长是有区别的,但我认为前者会带动后者。
but um let's see what was their guidance. We put them into Chrome. Let me find out. Okay. So, stocks, we've got Crowd Strike. Crowd Strike forecast. Yeah, because they raised their ARR growth outlook to 34%. That's what I'm saying. Uh, this is just starting. you know, their growth rate. Uh, I think uh, Wall Street at 20% EPS growth on average is smoking crack. Way too low. IMO 50% might even be too low. Uh, after claw uh, you know, the mythos moment. So 25% ARR growth here, but management guided 37 uh 34% ARR growth for 2027. I think they'll beat that. That's ARR growth. So just to be clear, there's a difference here between the ARR growth and the EPS growth, but I think one will lead to the other.
所以真正的争论在于,这只股票被高估了。如果你认为华尔街的增长数字是对的,而如果你认为它们大错特错,你就可以提出持有该股票的理由。我认为它们大错特错。这就是我持有的原因。有时候我看那些预估,我会想,“嗯,这很合理。”
其他时候我看那些预估,我会说,“你们错了。”这就是我认为华尔街出错的地方。但除此之外,我的意思是,是的,你为此付出了高昂的代价。
So really the debate for this, it's overvalued. If you think Wall Street's growth numbers are right, and if you think they're vastly wrong, you can make an argument for owning this. I think they're vastly wrong. That's why I own it. Sometimes I look at the estimates, I'm like, "Ah, that's reasonable." Other times I look at the estimates, I go, "You guys are wrong." This is where I think Wall Street is wrong. But otherwise, I mean, yeah, you're paying a pretty penny for it.
好的,所以是Crowd Strike。那次财报电话会议上还有什么吗?那很有料。嗯,AR展望34%。是的。是的。是的。看到这个了吗?看,瞧。这意味着ARR增长率为34%,相比之下我们最初的展望是22%。
这种情况将会持续发生。ARR增加,创纪录的现金流。这会一直持续下去。
Okay, so Crowd Strike. Is there anything else in that earnings call? That's juicy. Uh, AR outlook 34%. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. See this? See, look. This equates to an ARR growth rate of 34% compared to the 22% in our initial outlook. That's going to keep happening. ARR increase record cash flow. That's going to keep going.
嗯,我们分析一下这个。这是什么?年度经常性收入在66亿美元左右,增长了34%。看到了。这是什么?Project Quilt工作等等等等。这是什么?暴露管理。好的。
Uh we analyze this. What is this annual recurring revenue in the range of 6.6 around $6.6 6 billion up 34%. Saw that. What is this project quilt works blah blah blah. What is this? Exposure management. Okay.
鉴于通过前沿AI发现的漏洞以及可以通过前沿AI创建的补丁呈指数级增长,这很好。问题是你已经触及了实际部署补丁的音障。这意味着公司正在寻找优先处理暴露项的能力。是的。就像你需要一些软件不断运行并保持你的东西更新,否则你就会落后。
所以今天为了安全,你需要对公司资产进行全天候的持续监督。Crowd做到了这一点。
Given the fact that there is an exponential increase in vulnerabilities that are found via Frontier AI and patches that can be created via Frontier AI, that's great. The problem is you've hit the sound barrier of actually rolling out the patch. And what that means is companies are looking for the ability to prioritize the exposures. Yeah. It's like you need some software that's constantly running and keeping your crap up to date because otherwise you're just going to get left behind. So you need constant constant at all time supervision of uh company assets to actually be secure today. Crowd does that.
Crowd做到了这一点。Falcon Shield。Falcon增长迅猛。你知道,我认为他们的一些增长率仍然……我不知道他们的增长率可能会被之前遗留产品的成功所掩盖……之前的遗留产品,你知道,如果我们实际上只有Falcon,你知道,增长率超过100%。你知道,他们在翻倍。所以这很有用。
Crowd does that. Falcon shield. Falcon's growing like crazy. You know, some of their growth rate I think is still I don't know their their growth rate could be masked by success of prior legacy products uh prior legacy products you know where if we actually had if we had only Falcon you know growth rate is over 100%. You know they're they're doubling. So that's useful.
你知道,我认为他们的一些增长率仍然……我不知道他们的增长率可能会被之前遗留产品的成功所掩盖……之前的遗留产品,你知道,如果我们实际上只有Falcon,你知道,增长率超过100%。你知道,他们在翻倍。
You know, some of their growth rate I think is still I don't know their their growth rate could be masked by success of prior legacy products uh prior legacy products you know where if we actually had if we had only Falcon you know growth rate is over 100%. You know they're they're doubling.
这是什么?AI工作负载迁移到云端。ARx数据29%。Crowd Stark是运行时安全的领导者。Crowd Stark现在保护……好的,没问题。这是什么?这是Cloud Shield。
转向我们的身份业务。哦,所以Cloud Falcon Shield的增长超过了一倍。转向云。不,他们所有的云业务增长了29%。所以我们不知道。好吧。好的。没问题。Falcon Shield增长了185%。
What is this? AI workloads moving on to cloud. ARx data 29%. Crowd Stark leader in runtime security. Crowd Stark now secures. Okay, that's fine. What is this? This is Cloud Shield. Turning to our identity business. Oh, so Cloud Falcon Shield is growing at over double. Moving on to Cloud. No, all of their cloud grew 29%. So, we don't know. Okay. All right. That's fine. Falcon Shield grew 185%.
Crowd Stark是运行时安全的领导者。哦,所以Cloud Falcon Shield的增长超过了一倍。转向云。不,他们所有的云业务增长了29%。所以我们不知道。
Crowd Stark leader in runtime security. Oh, so Cloud Falcon Shield is growing at over double. Moving on to Cloud. No, all of their cloud grew 29%. So, we don't know.
Falcon Shield增长了185%。那具体是什么?我想了解身份产品组合。所以,那是像……我认为那是像安全登录或零信任之类的。大概就是这样,但我会去核实。
Falcon Shield grew 185%. What exactly is that? I'd like to get identity products portfolio. So, is that like um I think that's like secure sign in or like zero trust. That's probably what it is, but I will verify.
好的。185。嗯,所以是Shield,特别是Shield。嗯,Shield。好的,来了。Shield来自对Adaptive Shield的收购。哦,所以他们收购了Adaptive Shield。
Adaptive Shield将其转变为Falcon Shield,它实际上是用于保护代理型应用的……保护代理型应用。啊哈。好的。所以那是不同的。它是与代理相关的零信任的一部分。明白了。
Okay. 185. Uh, so shield, specifically shield. Uh, shield. Okay, here we go. Shield is from the acquisition of adaptive shield. Oh, so they acquired adaptive shield. adaptive shield turned it into falcon shield and it's actually for securing a gentic apps secures a gentic apps. Aha. Okay. So that's different. It's part of the zero trust that has to do with agents. Got it.
嗯,Shield。好的,来了。Shield来自对Adaptive Shield的收购。哦,所以他们收购了Adaptive Shield。Adaptive Shield将其转变为Falcon Shield,它实际上是用于保护代理型应用的……
保护代理型应用。啊哈。好的。所以那是不同的。它是与代理相关的零信任的一部分。
Uh, shield. Okay, here we go. Shield is from the acquisition of adaptive shield. Oh, so they acquired adaptive shield. adaptive shield turned it into falcon shield and it's actually for securing a gentic apps secures a gentic apps. Aha. Okay. So that's different. It's part of the zero trust that has to do with agents.
是的,我们实际上有基于代币的定价。所以我们已经在这样做了。从客户角度来看重要的是什么? blah blah blah。Falcon许可证。所有消耗性文件Falcon许可证。好的。无聊。无摩擦部署。端点成功推动采用。没问题。
Yeah, we've actually have token based pricing. So, we're already doing that. What's important from a customer perspective? Blah blah blah. Falcon license. All consumable file falcon licenses. Okay. Boring. Friction free deployment. Endpoint success fuels the adoption. That's fine.
从客户角度来看重要的是什么? blah blah blah。Falcon许可证。所有消耗性文件Falcon许可证。好的。无聊。
What's important from a customer perspective? Blah blah blah. Falcon license. All consumable file falcon licenses. Okay. Boring.
无摩擦部署。端点成功推动采用。这很好。AI代理扩大了攻击面。是的,代理也是人类和机器风险的倍增器,拥有数据访问权限,就像……你知道的,代理失控。公平。是的。这就是代理群。蜂群来了。
Friction free deployment. Endpoint success fuels the adoption. That's fine. AI agents expand the attack surface. Yeah, agents are also human and machine risk multipliers with access to data just like you know agents going rogue. Fair. Yeah. This is the agentic swarm. The swarm is coming.
CrowdStrike,我个人认为非常令人印象深刻。对此感到兴奋。
Uh Crowd Strike, I personally think very impressive. Excited about this.
这是一篇高盛关于CrowdStrike的文章。这可能很有趣。拐点比我们预期的更早出现。来自高盛的CrowdStrike观点。
Here's a Goldman piece on Crown Strike. That could be interesting. Inflecting sooner than we expected. Crowd by Goldman.
好的。CrowdStrike盘后上涨11%。年度经常性收入同比增长51%,高于市场共识17%,下一财年增长预期中值为34%,等等等等。我们认为安全预算的拐点可能比预期来得更早。100%。110%。
Okay. Crowd strike indicated 11% after hours. Annual recurring revenue up 51% year-over-year, 17% above the street and uh 34% growth for next company raised at a midpoint blah blah blah. We believe an in inflection in security budget may be happening sooner than we expect. 100%. 110%.
CrowdStrike指出,AI项目正在催化更广泛的网络安全推进。嗯,我认为企业看到了AI的能力,然后当他们意识到所有端点暴露程度有多高时,会稍微有点惊慌失措,对吧?
Crowdstrike noted that AI projects are catalyzing a broader push to cyber. Well, I I think companies see what AI is capable uh of, then they poop themselves a little bit when they realize how exposed all their uh end points are, right?
CrowdStrike指出,AI项目正在催化更广泛的安全现代化推进,这将惠及CrowdStrike平台的多个部分。有早期证据表明,AI可能会在未来几年内推动网络安全行业结构性更高的增长率。
Crowdstrike noted that AI projects are catalyzing a broader push to security modernization that benefits several parts of the crowd platform. There are early proof points that AI could drive structurally higher growth rates for the ne next several years for uh cyber security.
是的。这就是为什么我认为华尔街诚实地说,他们的预测偏低。他们的目标价是230美元。股价已经在那里了。基本上已经在那里了。
Yes. And that's why I think Wall Street honestly even their projection is is low. They have a price target of $230. It's already there. It's basically already there.
因此,AI使用量随着前沿模型的使用而扩展,环比增长近3倍。
So aid usage was scaling with Frontier model usage up nearly 3x Q over Q.
与此同时,CrowdStrike更复杂的EDR(即你的端点技术)用于会话管理。代理上下文共同转化为更好的Flex指标。Flex ARR是……好了,找到了。20亿美元,增长100%。
The same time Crowd Strike's more sophisticated EDR that's your endpoint technology um for session management. Agentic context collectively translates to better flex metrics. Flex ARR is Oh, there we go. $2 billion up 100%.
你看,如果这仅仅是一家Flex公司,而且我们保持增长稳定,我们将达到100倍市盈率,或者说100%的收入增长。如果这种高利润率转化为EPS,这家公司就会以177倍市盈率交易,姑且称之为85倍吧。
他们将以类似两倍PEG的价格交易。这家公司将是两倍PEG。所以你可以看到,对于这些ARR公司,根据你选择的增长率,估值可能会有很大差异。
See, that's if this were only uh if this were if this were only a flex company uh and we held growth stable, we'd be at 100x or 100, you know, percent revenue uh rev growth. If that uh translated at high margins to EPS, this company would be, you know, whatever selling for 177 times, call it, you know, 85. They'd be selling for like a two peg. This company would be a two peg. So, you can see how you could be all over the place with with these ARR companies, depending on what growth rate you want to go with.
嗯,由于运营支出,他们目前的净利润率相当低,尽管毛利率非常出色。好的。他们对2029年企业价值与销售额之比的预测将在未来降至20。假设利润率保持稳定。看看这个。哎呀。EPS增长。
我不知道为什么他们在2027年初显示负值。然后我们得到大约39和33的EPS增长,这仍然低于我的预期,但高于华尔街其他机构的预期。
Um, their net margins right now because of the OPEX are so pretty low, though their gross margins are fantastic. so total cost of revenue is 374 divided by 1470.9 75% gross margin. These are those are Nvidia level margins equals Nvidia level margins, right? Okay. So, their forecast for 2029 enterprise value to sales will go down to 20 in the future. Growth margins margins we stay stable. Look at that. Oops. EPS growth. I don't know why they have this negative uh for the beginning of 27. And then we get to EPS growth of about 39 and 33, which is still lower than my expectation, but higher than the rest of Wall Street.
AI安全机会将不成比例地流向CrowdStrike,因为其技术的强大、轻量级代理、威胁图谱、人类强化反馈循环、以及收购和交叉销售下一代资产的意愿。
AI security opportunity will disproportionately acrue to crowd strike because of the strength of its technology, lightweight agent, lightweight agent, threat graph, human reinforcement feedback loops, willingness to acquire and cross-ell nextG assets.
是的。是的。对于高盛来说,这相当不错,但我仍然认为他们的估计太低了。
Yeah. Yeah. That's pretty good by uh by Goldman, although I still think their estimates are too low.
我知道你一直看好CrowdStrike,伙计,那些数字很庞大 >> 天哪,太棒了,我是说CEO Kurt谈到这个神话般的时刻正促使人们投入更多资金。我们喜欢CrowdStrike。
I know you've liked Crowd Strike for a while man those numbers are big >> oh my god it was fantastic I mean and the CEO Kurt was talking about this mythos moment is driving people to invest more money. We like CrowdStrike.
CrowdStrike增加了190亿。他们拥有出色的Falcon平台,并且让人们更容易添加模块。所以他们试图将所有这些分散的技术栈和编程整合起来,表示如果我们将其平台化,通过Falcon Flex进行这些调整就很容易。
这是一个绝妙的策略,但主要关乎总可寻址市场的增长。看起来五年后将是一个3000亿美元的市场。
Crowd Strike's adding 19 billion. they've got a wonderful platform with their Falcon platform, and they're making it easier for people to add on modules. So they're trying to take all this bifurcated tech stack and programming and said look if we platform it it's easy for you to make these adjustments with the Falcon Flex. It's a brilliant strategy, but mostly it's about the growth of the total addressable market. That looks to be a $300 billion market in five years.
CrowdStrike和Palo Alto是该领域的两大领导者。
And Crowd Strike, Palo Alto are the two leaders in the clubhouse there.
人工智能股票的下一个前沿领域,那些巨大的赢家,非常大的赢家,超级大的赢家,可能就摆在我们面前。我不仅持有我们要讨论的这只股票的头寸,而且真的认为华尔街目前对这家公司的估计相对于应有的水平来说是个笑话。
这意味着在账面上,按照华尔街的标准,该公司看起来被高估了。我认为基于人工智能的发展方向,该公司看起来被低估了。
the next frontier of artificial intelligence stocks that are big big winners, bigly winners, big PP winners, uh might be right in front of us. And I personally not only have exposure to the stock we're about to talk about, but really think that the estimates that Wall Street has for this company right now are a joke compared to what they should be. That means on paper with Wall Street the company looks overvalued. I think based on where we're going with artificial intelligence the company looks undervalued.
我们在CrowdStrike股价大幅飙升之前买入了CrowdStrike和一些网络安全公司。目前CrowdStrike的持仓确实出现了不错的上涨。我是说,仅就今日而言,该股已经上涨了19%。
We bought Crowd Strike and some cyber security companies before this massive boom in Crowdstrike stock. Uh and we've seen a definitely nicely up on the crowd strike position right now. I mean right now the stock just on the day is up 19%.
具体而言,华尔街预计像CrowdStrike这样的公司的年度经常性收入将以某一水平扩张,但现实是其扩张速度完全不同。这种扩张已经在发生。例如,CrowdStrike在净新增年度经常性收入方面超出预期16.4%,即比预期高出4%,这意味着其总年度经常性收入正以每年34%的速度增长。
而华尔街仍只预测该公司的每股收益年增长略低于20%。
Specifically, Wall Street expects that annual recurring revenue for companies like Crowdstrike is going to expand at one level and the reality is it's expanding at a totally different level. That expansion is already happening. For example, we uh CrowdStrike beat expectations on net new annual recurring revenue by 16.4% 4% over expectations, which meant that their total annual recurring revenue is now on pace to grow at 34% per year. And Wall Street still only has this company's earnings per share growing at just under 20% per year.
然后,当然,如果你是较大的承包商,他们会派遣前沿部署工程师,就像Palantir所做的那样。好吧,这家公司现在很贵。你会看到,你大概能明白需要有什么样的预期才能觉得,“哦,是的,好吧,这确实是合理的。”
And then, of course, if you're a larger contractor, they're going to send their forward deployment engineers much like a Palunteer does. Okay, this company is pricey right now. And you'll see, you kind of see what kind of expectations you have to have to go, oh yeah, okay, this is this is really justifiable.
高盛提出以下论点。他们认为年度经常性收入将达到51%。他们相信安全预算正在出现拐点,且这一变化比预期的来得更早。
Goldman Sachs argues the following. They argue that they see annual recurring revenue of 51%. They believe there's an inflection in security budgeting that's happening sooner than expected.
Flex……嗯,Flex……呃,营收翻了一番。那是22.9亿美元。我认为它的增长将远快于华尔街的预期。当我们真正查看高盛给出的增长数据时,他们在财务报表中列出的每股收益增长,至少在未来两年内分别为39%和33%,这是从之前的低谷中恢复过来的。
鉴于该公司一直在盈利和亏损之间摇摆,我们实际上只有一个盈利年份。我想是2024年,或者你在2025年又回到了负值,在那之前都是负的。我可能把24年和25年搞混了,但这并不重要。
重点是你刚刚开始真正进入盈利阶段。这也是为什么该公司看起来可能昂贵的另一个原因。也许它确实很贵。也许你得等待更好的入场机会,对吧?
Flex uh Flex um revenue is up double. That's that 2.29 billion. I think that's going to grow way faster than Wall Street thinks. And when we actually look at the growth that Goldman gives them, they're throwing EPS growth somewhere down here on their financial statements, they're throwing in EPS growth for the forward two years at least at 39 and 33% coming out of some of the holes that there have been. Given that the company has been teetering between profitability and losses, we really had one profitable year. I think it was 2024. or you went back to negative in 2025 and you were negative everything before that. I may be switching 24 and 25, but it doesn't really matter. The point is you're just now really coming into profitability. And that's another reason why the company can look expensive. And maybe it is expensive. Maybe you got to wait for a better opportunity to enter it, right?
但看看这里的图表。年度营收同比增长25%。我认为这个太低了。我认为它会增长得更快。
But look at the dock here. Annual revenue year-over-year growing at 25%. I think that's way too low. I think it's going to grow faster.
所以,你有这个三重奏。那就是Token成本下降——这可能是由于开源权重或其他原因——然后你有代理式(Agentic)应用,接着你还有更多的端点。
So, you have this trifecta. So that's going to be token uh we'll just call them token costs coming down that could be due to the open weights or otherwise right then you've got uh agentic and then you also have more end points.
每一个有人授予Claude Agent或其他访问权限的端点都是一个风险,而大多数人没有端点管理软件。这是一个巨大的危险信号,这种情况将会改变。
Every endpoint that somebody gives access to like claude agent or whatever access to is a risk and most people don't have endpoint management software. That's a big red flag and that's going to change.
还有其他较小的端点管理标的。你知道,这现在已经是一家价值数千亿美元的公司了。我是说,CrowdStrike现在的市值是多少?CrowdStrike现在的市值是2300亿美元。
There are other endpoint management plays that are smaller. You know, this is now already a, you know, multiundred billion dollar company. I mean, what's CrowdStrike going for right now? Crowd Strike right now is going for $230 billion.
我是说,CrowdStrike现在的市值是多少?CrowdStrike现在的市值是2300亿美元。还有另一家端点管理标的今天上涨了11%,我们也持有其仓位。它们只是一家78亿美元的公司。
所以如果你还不想加入我们的Meet Kevin课程,这里给你一点剧透提示。但那是另一家大型的端点管理器。
I mean, what's CrowdStrike going for right now? Crowd Strike right now is going for $230 billion. There's another endpoint management play that is up 11% today that we're also invested in. They are only a $7.8 billion company. So there's a little bit of your spoiler hint if you don't want to join us yet in the meet Kevin courses. But that's another big endpoint manager.
因此,整个网络空间都在由此受益。但我认为你实际上这里有这个三重奏在起作用,其中较低的Token成本导致更多的代理式使用,这进而导致更多端点上的代理式使用,所有这些都与网络风险的增加相关——让我们用不同的颜色标记一下——所有这些都与网络风险的增加相关。是的,风险增加,这三者都增加了风险。
And so the whole cyerspace is getting lifted by this. But I think you actually have this trifecta going on here where lower token costs lead to more agentic usage which leads to uh more agentic usage on more end points which all uh correlates with an increase let's use a different color here all of it correlates with an increase in cyber risk right increase risk all three of these increase risk.
你可以这样论证:更多的端点因此正在使用更多的Token生成器。所以你在这里有这种加速效应,更多的人使用端点,更多的人使用代理式应用,更便宜的开源权重成本,就像我们在开头提到的那样。所有这一切只是增加了网络风险。
And you can make the argument that more endpoints are therefore now using more token generators. And so you've got this kind of acceleration here where more people using uh endpoints, more people using Agentic, cheaper open weight costs like what we talked about at the beginning of the setup. All of that just increases cyber risk.
他们的财报电话会议上提到了通过前沿AI发现的漏洞呈指数级增长。问题在于发现风险和部署防御之间的延迟。而这实际上是CrowdStrike拥有另一个非常酷的机会的地方,因为他们能接触到大量专有数据。
We've got talk from their earnings call right here about an exponential increase in vulnerabilities that are being found via Frontier AI. And the problem is the delay between finding a risk and then deploying it. And that's actually where CrowdStrike has another really cool opportunity because they get access to a lot of proprietary data.
好的。数据的问题在于,这就是为什么CrowdStrike——你知道,大的那种——能够不断获胜的原因,因为当你拥有数据时,人们会来找你,因为你拥有数据。所以人们会来找你,因为你拥有数据。
因为当你拥有数据时,你就能保护他们免受更多威胁。你拥有的数据越多,你能提供的保护就越多。所以人们来是因为你有更多数据,但随着更多人到来,你实际上又增加了你拥有的数据量,因为你现在可以访问更多的公司。
所以,这是一种疯狂的数据飞轮,在这里持续运转,而前沿AI,你知道,以及更便宜地获取前沿AI,都复合增强了这种净收入留存率……
Okay. So the issue with data is and this is why crowd strike you know the big kind of keep winning is that when you have the data people come to you because you have the data. So people are going to come to you because you have the data. Because when you have the data you're going to be able to protect them from more threats. The more data you have the more protection you could provide. So people come because you have more data, but by more people coming, you actually then increase the amount of data you have because you now have more companies you have access to. So, it's this crazy flywheel that sort of goes on over here and Frontier AI, you know, sort of uh and and cheaper access to Frontier AI all uh compounds this uh net revenue retention revenue,
他们有点零散地披露这个信息,有些季度他们谈论它,有些则不谈,但他们的净收入留存率约为112%。有时候当我与其他这些公司比较时,我确实认为知道不一定非得是CrowdStrike是有价值的。
they they kind of miscellaneously disclose this like some quarters they talk about it, some they don't, but their net revenue retention was about 112%. And sometimes when I compare to these other companies, I do think there is a value in knowing that it doesn't have to be CrowdStrike.
但这里真正巧妙的是,他们正在从端点收集数据,并将这些数据回收转化为他们的定价权。所以这里有一些非常大的价值,这令人兴奋。
But what's really neat here is uh they're collecting data from their endpoints and they're sort of recycling that into their pricing power. And so there's some really big value here which is uh exciting.
如果我们回顾一下,这确实是第一季度末出现的 Claude 热潮。近期云使用量出现 400% 的增长,Claude 使用量大幅增长,终端上自定义代理的使用量也增长了 100%,但存在一种潜在风险,即我们经历了一轮繁荣周期,由于第一季度的表现,这种增长最终可能会逐渐减弱。
Then if we take a look at uh the this was really the claude boom right here at the end of Q1 there is a risk that some of the boom we're seeing in cloud usage 400% growth in claude usage 100% growth in custom agent usage on endpoints in recent months there's a potential risk that you know we went through sort of a boom cycle and that's going to end up tapering because of what we saw in Q1.
所以,还有待观察。如果我们实际查看财务报表,现金流相当不错。我们每年的现金流约为 18 亿美元。这算下来,现金流收益率不到 1%。因此,再次强调,相对于其市值来说,估值略显昂贵。谁知道呢?也许这就是顶部了,对吧?
So, to be determined, if we actually go look at the financials, cash flow is uh pretty good. We've got about uh $1.8 billion of cash flow uh cash flow per year. That does work out to a less than 1% cash flow yield. So, again, a little expensive compared to their market cap. So, who knows? Maybe this is the top, right?
仍然对网络安全非常看好,但值得注意的一点是,该公司刚刚开始实现盈利。如果我看他们的资产负债表,我有 60 亿美元的现金和 10 亿美元的当期账单。这是现金和应收账款,减去 10 亿美元的账单,意味着我有 50 亿美元的净自由现金。
如果我再看长期债务,再减去大约 10 亿美元。所以我实际上大约有 40 亿美元的自由现金,这很好。我的意思是,公平地说,对于一家 2000 亿美元的公司来说,这可能偏低,但资产负债表非常好。资产负债表看起来不错。
Still very excited about cyber security, but worth noting. Also, just now turning to profitability. If I look at their uh balance sheet, I've got $6 billion of cash, $1 billion of current bills. That's cash and receivables, 1 billion of bills, which means I've got net5 billion of free cash. If I come over and take off their long-term debt, I take off another maybe about $1 billion. So, I really have about $4 billion of free cash, which is good. I mean, in fairness, for a $200 billion company, it's, you know, maybe on the low side, but very good balance sheets. balance sheet looks good.
营收方面,同比增长 25.8%。他们的订阅成本实际上在下降。22.1% 的比例表明营收与订阅之间的定价能力正在增强。此外,如果与去年相比,他们去年的订阅成本为 22.8%,这也意味着我们正在获得更大的定价能力。
Revenue, another 25.8% growth in revenue year-over-year. Their costs on subscriptions are actually going down. 22.1% in indicates an increasing pricing power between revenue and subscriptions. But also, if you compare to last year, their costs were 22.8% on subscription, which uh subscriptions, which also means we are getting uh greater pricing power.
他们的毛利率达到了 Nvidia 的水平,为 75%。这真的非常好。现在,公平地说,他们有很多 GNA(一般及行政费用),而且他们才刚刚开始实现盈利,只是勉强盈利。所以这确实存在一些风险。
对于华尔街的许多投资者来说,这将是一个星号标记。这是可以理解的。
Their gross profit margins are at Nvidia levels at 75%. Which is really, really good. Now, in fairness, they have a lot of GNA and they're just coming into profitability, barely coming into profitability. So, there is some risk with that. That is going to be an asterisk for a lot of investors on Wall Street. Understandable.
你可以注意到,他们目前的研发支出增长了 29.8%。这比营收增长略高一些。但是,包括研发在内,他们整体的 GNA 和销售支出仅增长了 17.5%。如果把这些合在一起看,他们的定价能力正在增长。
他们只是在研发上投入更多。例如,仅销售费用就增长了 14%,但他们的营收几乎是这个数字的两倍,达到 25.8%。这相当不错。也许我过于看涨了,所以只是提一下。
Uh, you can notice that their R&D spend is up right now by 29.8%. So that's a little higher than revenue right now. Uh but their overall GNA and sales spending is up only 17.5% with R&D. So if you merge that all together, their pricing power is growing. They're just investing more into R&D. For example, sales alone up 14% in expenses, but their revenue is almost double that at 25.8%. It's pretty good. Maybe I'm too bullish, so just mentioning it.
嗯,数据中心敞口。他们自己也拥有大量的数据中心设备。你知道,他们自己拥有的 GPU 价值超过 10 亿美元。我认为他们租赁数据中心,但他们拥有很多自己的设备。
uh data center exposure. They do also have a lot of data center equipment themselves. Uh you know, over a billion dollars of GPUs themselves. I think they lease their data centers, but they've got a lot of their own equipment.
他们的大部分收入也来自美国。大约 65% 的收入来自美国。这让你更清楚收入的来源地。除了美国之外,没有其他任何国家对 CrowdStrike 收入的敞口超过 10%。不过,像欧洲或其他地区加起来超过了 10%。
They also have uh most of their revenue that comes from the United States. It's about 65% revenue coming from the United States. So, it gives you a little bit more color in terms of where it's coming from. No country like no other country out there has more than um a 10% exposure to Crowdstrike revenue. However, they have other regions like Europe or whatever that make up more than 10%.
像 Crowd Strike 这样的公司如何拥有护城河,尽管按照 Wall Street 的预期它们真的价格很高,但我认为它们被低估了,因为人们没有正确地为在你的业务中拥有网络安全的重要性定价。
以及它们能够在 Microsoft 或 AWS 等平台上部署这一事实。
how a company like Crowd Strike has the moat and even though they're really pricey on Wall Street expectations, I think they're undervalued because people are not properly pricing in how important it is to have cyber security in your business. And the fact that they're able to deploy this on like Microsoft or AWS.
这个频道对 $CRWD 的历次判断
Meet Kevin 在这只股票上共 3 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。